Pitt vs UCF

celticGreen · #1 10-13-2006, 09:16 AM

Thoughts on this game? Perhaps thoughts on the OU? I'm thinking Pitt covers. Not much home field advantage for UCF(half empty stadium), Pitt has played well against teams in the same class as UCF. They average more yards per game on the ground & in the air... And I see a lot of 3 & outs for UCF.

BUTNAHHHH · #2 10-13-2006, 09:41 AM

3 and outs, dont you mean two and then a pick six....i cant wait to see how UCF messes up this game

Jibba · #3 10-13-2006, 09:41 AM

I kind of like Pitt here. They've looked good this year from what I've seen, but in their only game against good competition they got smoked I believe. And obviously UCF isn't good competition. At 10 points I haven't decided whether to touch it or not.

chev9 · #4 10-13-2006, 10:19 AM

I think Pitt rolls big time here, something in the ballpark of 31-7

BobJoeJim · #5 10-13-2006, 12:11 PM

I haven't looked at this game in depth yet, but I will since it's the only game of the day. At the moment my early lean is on Pitt, because my computer rankings predict an 18 point line, and because I've seen UCF look pretty bad this year. I'll be back later with an actual analysis though.

pirateboy · #6 10-13-2006, 12:45 PM

The line caught my eye in my initial power ranking step of my process. As BJJ said, the computers have it around 15 to 18 for Pitt. I might jump on the Panthers because I haven't bet a weekday game since ............ 2 weeks ago?

Shakes · #7 10-13-2006, 01:09 PM

The play I feel most strongly about tonight is Palko -42.5 passing yards over UCF QB's at +100. This prop is playable at The Greek, Skybook, and some other shops. I'm expecting Palko in a route on this one, something like 270-130. This is a 2-unit wager for me, and that's a huge bet by my standards.

I have a no-play on the side currently. I'm almost on UCF. I guess if this clicks over to 11.5 or so, I'll put a small play on UCF. Keep in mind that these teams tend to play out their ass in primetime on tv. A home dog in primetime is a good subset to bet on.

On the total, I'm leaning over, but I don't know if I'll play it.

chev9 · #8 10-13-2006, 01:55 PM

Shakes,
How do you expect UCF to keep this close if Palko outgains UCF QBs by 140 yards? Pitt averages more yards per carry and game than UCF and they allow fewer yards per carry and game than UCF. Also, UCF’s leading rusher is banged up with some bruised ribs. Do they have a big special teams edge that I don’t see?

Shakes · #9 10-13-2006, 03:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Shakes,
How do you expect UCF to keep this close if Palko outgains UCF QBs by 140 yards? Pitt averages more yards per carry and game than UCF and they allow fewer yards per carry and game than UCF. Also, UCF’s leading rusher is banged up with some bruised ribs. Do they have a big special teams edge that I don’t see?

[/ QUOTE ]

Within 11.5 points isn't close.

Even if it's a blowout in passing yardage, that doesn't translate into a blowout on the scoreboard. I'm not sure that 140 yards translates into a double digit victory. Pitt just has the slightest edge on rushing if you ask me.

BUTNAHHHH · #10 10-13-2006, 03:30 PM

UCF special teams has been prown to many costly mistakes this year. The kicker has missed many FG's, although he did make a short one against marshall last wednesday, but he hasnt been steady. The snaper of UCF snaped a ball over the kcikers head in the southern miss game too, so NO SPECIAL TEAM EDGE as far as I am concerned. I took PITT -10 the week the day the spread came out and bet 10 units on the game.