% Chance of exact number of runs scored?

jaym96822 · #1 10-13-2006, 06:24 AM

I appreciate the help for my earlier question, so I'm trying again.

Does anyone have an "easy" method to determine the liklihood of a particular baseball game ending with a specific number of runs scored?

To give a concrete example, if you could bet that today's ALCS game would have exactly 9 runs scored, what odds would you need to take the yes side?

Then, assuming there's an easy place for that data, how about:

Now for the same game, what odds would you need to take the yes side of: exactly 5 runs scored after 5 innings?

Thanks in advance for any ideas.

rjp · #2 10-13-2006, 08:39 AM

Nothing is ever easy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You can project the number of runs scored in a game based on a team's recent hits/runs/all kinds of stats.

I don't have the formulas with me, but if you're just looking to gamble then take the median value for both team's runs scored over their last say 5, 10, and 15 games and add those together. That will be the "average" runs scored, then use a poisson distribution to calculate the odds.

Although that's not perfect, as you can score more than one run at a time in baseball, but if you're just wanting to gamble then go for it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

almostbusto · #3 10-13-2006, 11:40 AM

rjp's method is really flawed. most importantly because an MLB game is much more likely to end on an odd number than an even number.

rjp · #4 10-13-2006, 01:12 PM

almostbusto, what part of "if you're just wanting to gamble" did you not understand? lol

almostbusto · #5 10-13-2006, 03:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
almostbusto, what part of "if you're just wanting to gamble" did you not understand? lol

[/ QUOTE ]i understood it entirely. i fail to see how the desire to gamble removes flaws from a methodology

rjp · #6 10-13-2006, 03:33 PM

You're missing my point. The method I threw out is in no way intended to be flawless. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

jaym96822 · #7 10-13-2006, 04:22 PM

I appreciate the help guys, but it was actually a research-oriented question rather than a gambling one. More specifically, I'm trying to determine whether anyone has already come up with a process.

I'm thinking something like, average runs scored adjusted for pitcher's ERA and home-field advantage for total runs, but I would rather just look up a website than crunch the numbers myself! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Anyone know of any online sources of this info?

rjp · #8 10-13-2006, 04:26 PM

Murray's book covers this:

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/720113.html

Lori · #9 10-13-2006, 06:35 PM

You could use Pinnacle's dropdown menu's to find out what they say the difference between over 7.5 and over 8.5 is in a given game, and make a reasonable estimate based on that.

Lori

jaym96822 · #10 10-13-2006, 06:57 PM

Book looks good, ordered on your recommendation, thanks.