UFC 64 - Page 2

jmillerdls · #11 10-12-2006, 05:46 PM

Alright...I've made a few wagers at this point...and will likely make more if the lines shift right.

I think the Silva-Frankling fight is very close. I think if Franklyn was smart, he'd try and win a decision by taking and holding Silva down. Silva has a solid ground game, but is far less capable from his back than on his feet. And by that, I mean that every second they are on the feet, Franklyn is in danger of being knocked out. I've seen lots of fights from both of these guys and think it is a very close matchup. Given the line, my money is on Silva.

Sherk-Florian appears to be a mis-match in my opinion. We all know how this fight is going to go (Sherk with the takedown, the rest of the round on top of Florian). The only question is whether Florian can submit him. I honestly don't think so, given that in his previous 30+ fights, Sherk has never been submitted. Sherk is a considerable favorite here, and the line is good enough.

Hironaka-Fitch. I think there is a TON of value here. A lot of people don't know Hironaka...since he's a SHOOTO fighter, but trust me, he has immense talent. I think this is the biggest value on the card, given that I think the fight is 50-50. Also a quick note, I think this could be the best fight on the card...can't wait for it.

Jardine-Nickels. The line sucks, but it sucks for a reason. Jardine is perfectly capable on the ground if the fight ever got there (he's a bjj blackbelt), but I don't see it getting there, since Nickels will likely be knocked out in the first round. Looks like easy money to me folks. I think the UFC is trying to get Jardine in the LHW title picture.

Okami-Starnes. I haven't placed a bet on this one yet. I'm expecting the line to shift towards Starnes given name recognition, but I like Okami in the fight. I'm waiting for a better line, but I think Okami takes this.

I'm waiting for line shift on the Tito-Chuck fight as well as the Hughes-GSP fight...However, I will be betting Chuck and GSP...it's just a matter of when to make the bet.

goodsamaritan · #12 10-12-2006, 07:06 PM

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Hopefully people will remember Lauzon KO'ing Pulver and Fisher will drop some. I don't think Lauzon can handle the bigger guy.

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It is a different Lauzon. It's the younger brother of the guy who KOed Pulver.

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Hopefully other people will confuse the younger brother with his older brother and bet on him anyways [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Yeah, I'd like a better price on Fisher.

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It looks like that has already happened. -370 sounds like a steal for an accomplished veteran like Spencer Fisher against an 18 year old rookie. There's a video of him on google, but it's hard to tell much. I generally hate betting against unknowns, but in this case I may make an exception.

love2puck14 · #13 10-12-2006, 08:15 PM

goodsamaritan:

i think ur underestimating the weight cutting aspect. he says its no problems.. whatdu think he's gonna say?? it was hard, i was tired, felt like [censored]... ur crazy if you think he can drop 20 lbs with 5% bodyfat and fight fine. i understand that Kenflo is over matched but i like him at 3 to 1. also

any1 know how much weight the fighters are allowed to put on after weighins? also the weigh ins are the night before right? thanks

PS the lines are up on pinny for 65 and 66... already got money on liddell at -260

goodsamaritan · #14 10-12-2006, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
goodsamaritan:

i think ur underestimating the weight cutting aspect. he says its no problems.. whatdu think he's gonna say?? it was hard, i was tired, felt like [censored]... ur crazy if you think he can drop 20 lbs with 5% bodyfat and fight fine. i understand that Kenflo is over matched but i like him at 3 to 1. also

any1 know how much weight the fighters are allowed to put on after weighins? also the weigh ins are the night before right? thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

He admitted that it was hard the first time he cut, but he said that it was much easier the second time he cut.

The weighins are the night before the fight and there is no limit on how much weight the fighter can gain after.

JasonK · #15 10-12-2006, 08:30 PM

Weigh-in is tomorrow 2pm PT, day before fight. I don't think there is a weight limit after weigh-ins. Dropping weight shouldn't be a problem for Sherk, he has excellent conditioning.

bdk3clash · #16 10-12-2006, 10:19 PM

Moderate hijack: Anyone in NYC care to host a viewing of UFC 64? I'd obviously split the cost of the PPV with whoever's there and throw in a six-pack, my winning personality, and my extensive MMA knowledge (whether you want to hear it or not.)

BriMc · #17 10-13-2006, 10:59 AM

I live in Astoria and will be watching the fight for sure. PM me if you want to come and watch.

swope · #18 10-13-2006, 02:53 PM

franklin v silva: silva is probably the better fighter on their feet but franklin can do his Ultimate Takedown Championship thing and win this on points by putting silva on his back and neutralizing him against the fence with gnp. i have very light action on franklin, i dont know why, i shouldnt be betting on this fight at all.

sherk v kenflo: this should be a recap of diego vs kenflo, but with both of them dropping down to 155, im left wondering just how effective sherk is going to be without that body mass behind him. can sherk at 155 shut down kenflo? if not for the weight change i would stack up on sherk for ever.. but at 155 im putting feather-light action on kenny.

hironaka v fitch: i habitually bet on shooto fighters who show up in the cage, and by god im going to continue that habit. if fitch manhandles hironaka and wins a points decision i wont be suprised at all, but with fitch being so aggro and hironaka being so dangerous from his back, a triangle or armbar late in the third strikes me as worth a small wager.

kongo v marrero: can for kongo. betting heavy on kongo.

lauzon v fisher: fisher has the experience to finish lauzon in the first. strikes me as very safe money.

nickels v jardine: stack up on jardine, its free money probably. hes the better fighter, hes faced stronger opponents, his standup is very strong while nickles is very weak. i just wish the line was a bit more profitable.

okami v starnes: war okami. starnes is a good fighter, hes no slouch, but okami beat mach sakurai, who is one of my favorite fighters. i think that a more realistic line for this fight is -230 okami, so im stacking up on him on the basis of him being undervalued *and* being the better fighter.

guida v james: guida is a very safe bet. better fighter, more experience, better results.

pellegrino v assuncao: pellegrino trains with hermes franca, assuncao is a replacement being brought in late without enough training or prep time. gotta favor pellegrino on this one.

Performify · #19 10-13-2006, 03:05 PM

As always, cross-posted from my blog where the HTML formatting is easier to read in my opinion.

UFC 63 results: 5-2 on bets, -0.36 units. 5-3 on picks.
Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets.

Predictions for this weekend's fight with the current lines (as of the time of the posting on my blog over an hour ago) from Pinnacle.

Cheik Kongo vs Carmelo Marrero
Cheik Kongo -511
Carmelo Marrero +461

Kongo is 9-2-1 in MMA with first round KO's in UFC 61 and 62. Kongo is being groomed for a shot at the heavyweight title, due to the serious lack of talent in the UFC heavyweight division. Marrero is 5-0 in MMA but being thrown in to the woodchipper here. He's certainly not in Kongo's league. Marrero is a ground-and-pound banger and certainly has a chance here if he can somehow get Kongo down and control him. But Kongo wins this with a first round KO. Worth a half-unit play (to win) even at this price, if you're interested in having action on all the fights.

Keith Jardine vs Mike Nickels
Keith Jardine -476
Mike Nickels +436

TUF3 graduate Mike Nickels faces off against TUF2 graduate Keith Jardine. Jardine's only loss since early 2002 aside from in TUF was a ridiculous decision loss against

Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4 in April of this year. The heavily tatooed Nickels is a solid fighter with good ground skills, and is a bigger fighter at 6'4" to Jardine's 6'2". However, Jardine's striking and leg kicks are going to be enough to bring this home. Nickels certainly can't trade with Jardine on the feet, and Jardine has the ability to stuff the takedown and keep this standing. Jardine will use his effective jab and very effective leg kicks and stuff takedown attemps and put this away in the second round with a TKO from strikes.

Sean Sherk vs Kenny Florian
Sean Sherk -301
Kenny Florian +271

This fight is to claim the newly-reinstated vacant lightweight belt. Sherk is an absolute monster, built like a brickhouse with tremendous strength, tremendous wrestling and grappling, and even very good striking. Sherk holds a very impressive 30-2-1 MMA record. We most recently saw Sherk defeat Nick Diaz by UD at UFC:59. Prior to that Sherk got TKO'd by GSP at UFC:56 and went the distance in a very tough fight with Matt Hughes in UFC:42. Kenny Florian is a BJJ blackbelt and very impressisive grappler. Florian lost to Diego Sanchez in the first round at teh Ultimate Fighter I finale back in April 2005, but since has won over Alex Karalexis at Ultime Fight Night 1, and submitted Kit Cope at the TUF:2 finale and Sam Stout at the TUF:3 finale. Florian has three chances to win this fight: a cut, a very lucky flash knockout, or a submission. Florian does have very good jiu-jitsu skills, but Sherk has never been submitted and never even been close to getting caught in a submission. A cut is certainly always a possiblity, but a flash knockout is very unlikely: Sherk has a monster chin and was able to outbox a very good striker in Nick Diaz. Sherk is by far the best bet on this card, in my opinion. Sherk by first round strikes via ground-and-pound. Worth a four unit play (to win).

Spencer Fisher vs Dan Lauzon
Spencer Fisher -401
Dan Lauzon +361

Fisher is a monster striker fighting out of the Miletich camp, with a 18-2 MMA record. Fisher lost a split decision to Sam Stout at UFC:58 (USA vs Canada) and then KO'd Matt Wiman with a flying knee at UFC:60 (Gracie vs Hughes). Dan Lauzon is only 18 years old, is the younger brother of lightweight Joe Lauzon who just recently pulled out the massive upset over Jens Pulver. Lauzon stepped up when Naoyuki Kotani couldn't get in to the country due to visa issues. Fisher has never been submitted, has never been knocked out, his only two losses come by decisions. I think this is going to be an interesting fight as we'll get our first real look at Lauzon, but I can't imagine the 18-year old will be able to stand up to the impressive Fisher in his UFC debut. Fisher by second round TKO, but the pure unknown factor of Dan Lauzon is always a concern.

Clay Guida vs Justin James
Clay Guida -277
Justin James +257

Undercard fight we probably won't see unless something spectacular happens. Guida is an up-and-coming figher at 24 years old with a 20 - 6 MMA record all in the last thre years. Guida is a very strong wrestler (won the National Junior Collegiate Championship in 2001) and has some decent MMA experience, holding the Strikeforce lightweight Championship at one point and holding three belts in regional (midwest) fighting organizations. Justin James is 11-5 in MMA competition with early loses to Rich Clementi and Jorge Gurgel, but don't let that record fool you: James is 7-1 in MMA since 2004. He's a very strong submission fighter: all but one of those seven wins since 2004 have been by submission, almost all of them by armbar. Guida has an impressive record, but he's fought five times in 2006 and has lost three of those fight fights, two by submission. I think there's a reasonable chance that the experienced and older James catches Guida in a submission here. James by armbar in the second round.

Rich Franklin vs Anderson Silva
Rich Franklin -194
Anderson Silva +181

I think just about everyone knows who they are and what they've done. Franklin is one of the most intelligent fighters in the UFC, and he'll come in to this fight well prepared with a detailed gameplan on how to secure this victory. Yes, Silva has been impressive in building his 16 - 4 MMA record, he has very strong Muay Thai skills and a very active guard. But Franklin will eke out a decision victory here. Yes, I expect this to go all five rounds. It will be a war, and Franklin will be in danger all the way, but I think he wins pretty handily with a smart gameplan, probably with a lot of takedowns and slow steady pace on the ground. I think this line is well-set and there's not a tremendous value in either side.

Yushin Okami vs Kalib Starnes
Yushin Okami -124
Kalib Starnes +114

Okami is a teammate of Caol Uno and a strong ground and pound fighter. He was last in the UFC on the undercard of UFC:62 (Liddell vs Sobral) where he beat Alan Belcher by UD. Okami is currently the third-ranked middleweight in Pancase. Okami has fought some talent, including Anderson Silva, and a close decision loss to a tough Jake Shields. Starnes, from TUF:3, has an impressive 7-0-1 MMA record, but he hasn't beaten anyone of note except a KO of Jason MacDonald in late 2005. Starnes is outmatched here, and Okami wins this handily. First round TKO for Okami.

Jon Fitch vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Jon Fitch -284
Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264

Fitch was suppsoed to be on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, but has been tearing up the Ultimate Fight Night undercards instead, with wins over Brock Larson (UFN:2), Josh Burkman (UFN:4) and a TKO of Thiago Alves at UFN:5. Fitch fights under American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) and is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling background (wrestled in a solid program at Purdue) with a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. Fitch faces yet another tough opponent in Japanese fighter Kuniyoshi Hironaka. Hironaka holds black belts in BJJ and Judo, and is ranked #7 in the world in Shooto. Hironaka has a win (split decision) over Nick Diaz back in 2002 and most recently TKO'd former UFC figher Renato Verissimo at Rumble On The Rock #9 in April of this year. Hironaka was originally scheduled to fight BJ Penn on the Ortiz/Shamrock III card (which would have been an awersome fight) but that got scrapped when Penn stepped in to fight Hughes while GSP was injured. Its tough to argue with Fitch's success in recent fights, but I think this line is too high. Fitch would have to win this fight three times out of four to make his line +EV, and I think the fight is a little closer than that. Going to call Hironaka in the upset with a second-round triangle choke, but if Hironaka can't catch Fitch with a submission look for Fitch to ride this to a decision win otherwise.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Junior Assuncao
Kurt Pellegrino -306
Junior Assuncao +276

"Batman" Pellegrino is 8-3 in MMA after getting derailed by Drew Fickett at UFC:61. Pellegrino makes a return to the octagon four months later to try to avenge that loss. Pellegrino is a strong wrestler with good jiu-jitsu, and trains with Hermes Franca. Assuncao is a capoeira and BJJ fighter. Junior has good kicks from his capoeira training, but he's not going to get a chance to use them. This fight is going to the ground, where Pellegrino has the edge in strength and in BJJ technique. Batman gets the submission, only question is which round. I'll call the second.

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks in order of expected value: [*] Sean Sherk -301 : 12u to win 4u[/b][*] Yushin Okami -124 : 2.48u to win 2u[*] Kurt Pellegrino -306 : 3.06u to win 1u[*] Justin James +257 : .5u to win 1.285u[*] Kuniyoshi Hironaka +264 : .25u to win .66u[*] Cheik Kongo -511 : 2.55u to win .5u[*] Rich Franklin -194 : .97u to win .5u[*] Spencer Fisher -401 : 1u to win .25u[*] Keith Jardine -476 : 1.19u to win .25u[/list]
For what its worth, i think the last four fights (Kongo, Franklin, Fisher, Jardine) have very marginal value, and are all probably worth staying away from unless you're just looking for action across the board.

Utah · #20 10-13-2006, 03:23 PM

Thanks for the analysis. Awesome as always.

I laughed my ass off when I saw this, "Ultimate Fight Night #7 results: 8-1 on picks, 1-0 on bets." It is just a touch misleading [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]