Heisman odds

iggymcfly · #1 10-12-2006, 05:57 AM

From Pinny:

101 Troy Smith (Ohio State) +197
102 Brady Quinn (Notre Dame) +302
103 Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) +466
104 Steve Slaton (West Virginia) +805
105 Mike Hart (Michigan) +1211
106 Chris Leak (Florida) +2026
107 Mario Manningham (Michigan) +2540
108 Chad Henne (Michigan) +4101
109 Marshawn Lynch (California) +5158
110 Kenny Irons (Auburn) +4101
111 John David Booty (USC) +4101
112 Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech) +6227
113 Garrrett Wolfe (Northern Illinois) +3624

What does everyone think about Garrett Wolfe at +3624 here? Personally, I think he's a steal. He's been getting a ton of media hype lately, and I think if he rushes for 3000 yards, he may just win the award. CFN has him listed as the 2nd most likely player to win the award right now behind Troy Smith. I think a fair line would be somewhere around +1000. I suppose I could just max this bet out, but I don't feel comfortable putting too much into shaky futures markets, so I just took one unit at +4008 which was enough to move it to its current price.

Vince Young · #2 10-12-2006, 06:02 AM

I got a couple units on him at +6048.

MicroBob · #3 10-12-2006, 07:35 AM

I guess maybe if Troy Smith completely falls apart then Wolfe could start to have a shot at it.
But I don't think the voters on both coasts are really going to give it to some MAC RB. Just seems ridiculously unlikely to me but +6000 is a pretty nice price.

Derek123 · #4 10-12-2006, 11:47 AM

Its down to 2309 now.

Thremp · #5 10-12-2006, 11:50 AM

I think Wolfe need stats to get going... Like jawdropping ones... 2200+ yards and 25TD would be a good way to get noticed.

I think if Smith continues not to run and gets upended before the end of the season. Wolfe looks real good since his numbers are nutso.

mulebennett · #6 10-12-2006, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think Wolfe need stats to get going... Like jawdropping ones... 2200+ yards and 25TD would be a good way to get noticed.

[/ QUOTE ]

1350 and 13 right now, facing Temple, Central Mich, Eastern Mich and Toledo, and Iowa. 5 of his next 6 games are against opponents who allow more than 130 yards per game on the ground.

playersare · #7 10-12-2006, 12:19 PM

+1800. value's gotta be all gone at this price right? I bet the same on Hellmuth to win his 10th bracelet at the WSOP and that one felt a lot better (even before he won I mean).

chachi · #8 10-12-2006, 12:46 PM

No way someone from ta weakass conf., esepcially with that cream puff schedule, is going to get the votes. He may be a finalists, but he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning.

sfwusc · #9 10-12-2006, 01:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No way someone from ta weakass conf., esepcially with that cream puff schedule, is going to get the votes. He may be a finalists, but he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea Ohio State and Iowa suck. USC schedule last year looked about as hard, and Bush won. Not saying it is exactly the same thing, but the schedule isnt going to be a reason for him not to win. Not enough media hype might be a better reason for him not to win. There was a ton of value at +6000.

I will pass at +1800.

-SFWUSC

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/nns/schedule

Thremp · #10 10-12-2006, 01:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No way someone from ta weakass conf., esepcially with that cream puff schedule, is going to get the votes. He may be a finalists, but he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea Ohio State and Iowa suck. USC schedule last year looked about as hard, and Bush won. Not saying it is exactly the same thing, but the schedule isnt going to be a reason for him not to win. Not enough media hype might be a better reason for him not to win. There was a ton of value at +6000.

I will pass at +1800.

-SFWUSC

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/nns/schedule

[/ QUOTE ]

Look up the Sagarin Rankings...

Lets post some random ones and guess which is which....

78.37( 8)
73.42( 50)
77.10( 14)
76.40( 20)

USC
ND
LSU
Temple

Yes, it includes bowl games. Yes, Sagarin has flaws. Creampuff hardly. Pac10 is as underrated as the SEC is overrated. And almost all BCS conferences in terms of Heisman contention are viewed fairly closely. Wolfe from the MAC obviously has the hardest road to go through.