Live betting = Craziness??

Howling · #1 10-12-2006, 02:14 AM

Football is where Im tempted to blind bet against the team that scored first. I read (a long while back, years ago) about some data they (writers of the article) had about major sports, NFL, NHL, MLB, in which they showed the winning % of the teams that scored first.

Football was far and away the least affected by a first score (55% of the teams that scored first won).

NBA wasn't included for obvious reasons.

This data reflected just the winner of the game, not vs. spread.

I'm tempted to venture a guess that if you take the cheap price blindly, you might be close to +EV.

Just a thought.

rawl316 · #2 10-12-2006, 02:18 AM

For the NBA, I like to look at games where teams go on an early run and bet on the other team. All teams usually make a run, and when they do, I'll sell out for profit.

rush66 · #3 10-12-2006, 07:24 AM

Honestly, what I do is sit and watch. For baseball, every half inning while Im watching the game. Most of the honestly, I wait towards the end of the game. Usually like the bottom of the 7th and take the under. At that point if the score is 11 you get over under 12.5. So you get two runs. If you wait till the 8th you get 11.5. So you get one run. If you want to take the over take it then. You can usually get around +-120 at this point. For football, I dont really have a good method yet. I like to wait till the end of the game usually and take the large lines for like a half unit. Usually the over/under. I try not to go over 1/2 unit so Im not losing a ton. Plus by waiting till the end you are not going back and forth and stressing out the whole game. Just my thoughts.

Doosh · #4 10-12-2006, 10:49 AM

Live betting is craziness, and I love it. I absolutely love scalping unders like you mentioned, in the World Cup this was free free money. The key, I think, to live betting is making the play for a profitable scalp, as opposed to a profitable bet. Especially early in the game. Though I do a lot of betting right at the end as well, as sometimes you can get some interesting prices. For example, last night, bottom of the ninth, Tigers up three, two outs, bases juiced and Big Hurt at the plate, you could buy Detroit for -900 (wsex). Last Monday night with Denver up 4.5 ATS, 2 minutes left, and a Ravens team that hadn't scored a touchdown all night, you could take the Broncos at -400. I'm sure wsex knows what it's doing (the Broncos bet scared me more than the Tigers bet), but those are a couple interesting ones right at the end of the game from the past week. Oh, and don't forget about golf. You can often get a "good" golfer with a couple stroke lead halfway through their final round for a decent price. (Though Tiger gets inflated.)

Thremp · #5 10-12-2006, 11:41 AM

I like doing this when a team I feel is much better gets scored against first for like a fluke run or something. Or a pitcher gives up a leadoff jack and then strikes the next two out.

rush66 · #6 10-12-2006, 11:47 AM

Hahahah, the leadoff jack last night screwed my U12.5.

crockpot · #7 10-12-2006, 12:23 PM

if you think about it, what +126 and +116 does for you is return about 10% when there is no score in the top of the first. is a score really only going to happen 10% of the time?

Mr. 33 · #8 10-12-2006, 06:32 PM

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Hahahah, the leadoff jack last night screwed my U12.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually went pretty big on the 9.5o when the game was 3-1 after three. Later I went with the 12.5u for a great middle if the total fell on 10, 11, and, 12. Shouldn't have went over 11, I thought.