nl400 river value bet or not?

microbet · #1 10-11-2006, 07:04 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($477)
Button ($272.40)
SB ($414.20)
BB ($706.30)
UTG ($395.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $24, Hero raises to $64, 2 folds, BB calls $60, UTG calls $40.

Flop: ($194) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $72, BB calls $72, UTG folds.

Turn: ($338) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $128, BB calls $128.

River: ($594) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Villian checks, Hero?

Villian is probably 2p2. I'm playing something like 28/17. Open raiser has been open raising enough that he's on a wide range. I have 3 bet people a few times and haven't shown down anything that wasn't good.

On the flop I was going for bet/3bet all in, so I tried to size my bet to be reasonably strong, yet leave room for FE on the final raise.

On the turn, I bet smallish again compared to the pot, but we weren't deep compared to the pot and I wanted a weak ace or a flush draw (not super likely) to come along.

On the river, can he possibly have a better hand here? Maybe the two remaining Queens? 88, 66, and 79 seem unlikely.

On the other hand A8, A6, A5, and AK seem pretty unlikely too.

That doesn't leave many hands. Does he have those hands and call with them often enough that I should bet?

berserk · #2 10-11-2006, 07:10 PM

You have top 2, 1/2pot bet left, and imo villain often has AK (coldcall of reraise), he checked to you 3 times... what are you scared of?

Shove, very easy value push

smartalecc5 · #3 10-11-2006, 07:12 PM

One other thing to think about is if you bet, he has to call to see your cards. By just checking, you give him a free look which is bad.

I think you gotta 1/2 pot this river for value.

P.S. Is this guy a donk? Whop openraises 6x utg? You gotta have some type of read on this guy I would think.

Maulik · #4 10-11-2006, 07:13 PM

Jay,

Look at how many Ax have two-pair.

Big_Jim · #5 10-11-2006, 07:24 PM

I would re-raise more PF (like $75), or just call.

I would bet significantly more on the flop, probably like $125.

I might bet a little more on the turn, but I really like a small bet here, hoping he'll either check/raise or draw dead underneath you. I don't like more than half pot.

River is a ridiculously easy shove.

Phresh · #6 10-11-2006, 07:26 PM

Easiest bet ever.

Big_Jim · #7 10-11-2006, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I was going for bet/3bet all in, so I tried to size my bet to be reasonably strong, yet leave room for FE on the final raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
First off, I doubt many people think that 1/3 pot is a strong bet.

Secondly, WTF hand do you want fold equity against?

Note: AK+ is never folding.

microbet · #8 10-11-2006, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would re-raise more PF (like $75), or just call.

I would bet significantly more on the flop, probably like $125.

I might bet a little more on the turn, but I really like a small bet here, hoping he'll either check/raise or draw dead underneath you. I don't like more than half pot.

River is a ridiculously easy shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thx. Normally I would raise preflop to something like $75. There was really no reason I stopped clicking the slider up when it got to $64, just lazy/dumb.

On the turn I thought that since I had made the raise preflop, there was at least a fair chance someone with some kind of hand would go for a check-raise.

Do you think going for bet/3bet

a) doesn't accomplish enough to loose value gained when people who are behind call a bigger bet?

b) makes my hand too transparent?

c) other?

All,

Regarding the river. I didn't bet it. I immediately felt like an idiot and this post is a bit of public punishment.

microbet · #9 10-11-2006, 07:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I was going for bet/3bet all in, so I tried to size my bet to be reasonably strong, yet leave room for FE on the final raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
First off, I doubt many people think that 1/3 pot is a strong bet.

Secondly, WTF hand do you want fold equity against?

Note: AK+ is never folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, AK was what I was thinking. I was gonna add in the post "do you think AK might fold?" Guess not.

I will kick myself for a while over this hand. I threw away a bunch of $.

Big_Jim · #10 10-11-2006, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think going for bet/3bet

a) doesn't accomplish enough to loose value gained when people who are behind call a bigger bet?

b) makes my hand too transparent?

c) other?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a combination of a, and the fact that the pot is so big, already, that you're basically never going to get a chance to 3-bet anyway, since any raise will probably be all in, or damn close to it.

You do NOT want any fold equity in this pot, at any point, since the only hands you have fold equity against are way, way behind.