Iggy's Week 7 Picks

[SunOfBeach]

Ummm.... no. But thanks, anyway.

[iggymcfly]

Well, I guess dominant wasn't the right word since it just analyzes how they beat their opponents, and doesn't factor in how good those opponents were. What I really meant is that it's been extremely impressive how they've beaten two Top 15 teams this year in LSU and Tennessee, including one on the road, and they seem to be improving as the year goes on. I'm discounting the Alabama game somewhat since I really think the players were looking ahead to LSU.

Also, even though I didn't mention it, I think the loss to the Hogs will have a negative impact on Auburn psychologically. All offseason, they were working toward winning a national title, and that's pretty much impossible now. If they had a bye week to get over it or something, I might just discount it, but you have to think there will be at least a little hangover.

[ksufan19]

i completely agree, the bcs bubble burst is a strong fade the next week. loving fla ML here.

[iggymcfly]

Quick explanations on my other picks, since I really didn't do a lot of in-depth analysis on my other picks this week. I basically just floated on what I knew about the teams already, quickly double-checking the scores and schedules before picking.

Iowa State +19 at Oklahoma:
First off, this is a letdown game for OU. The Red River showdown is their biggest game every year and after getting that up emotionally and getting soundly beaten, there has to be a little letdown the next week. Secondly, I'm not sure OU's that good. The close loss to Oregon looks a lot worse after Cal demolished UO and Texas did beat them pretty solidly. If you discount the UO game, the only remotely impressive performance the Sooners have this year is against MTSU, and I think any game against a Sun Belt team has to be taken with a grain of salt. Against teams very similar to Oklahoma in overall skill, Iowa State lost to Nebraska by 14 and Iowa by 10, and if you use comparative score analysis, they lost to Texas by 5 points more than Oklahoma did. I think the fair line here is around 10.

Hawaii -4 at Fresno State:
Usually, it makes me sick to bet Hawaii on the road, but the Warriors look to be good enough to win away from the island this year. While they're 0-2 on the road this season, those losses were both one-possession games against Top-40 teams (Alabama and Boise State). Fresno State is nowhere near a Top 40 team as they're coming off a loss to previously 0-5 Utah State who was considered the worst team in I-A not named Temple going into the game. Fresno State is on a really bad trendline as they've played worse every week since their season-opening win over Nevada. It looks like they may be giving up on their season and they should lose by at least a TD to a Hawaii team that's seriously competing for the WAC title or at the very least second place behind Boise State. I think a fair line here is somewhere between 10 and 14.

Arizona -4.5 at Stanford:
Stanford's terrible. Really terrible. San Jose State's the only opponent they've come within 20 points of all season. Along with Duke, they're one of two BCS teams that has a legitimate claim at being the worst in the country. Arizona's 2-4, but they've played a very difficult schedule, beating BYU and hanging close against Washington and USC. I think Arizona should be favored by 10 here.

Kentucky +26.5 at LSU:
Big letdown for LSU following the loss to Florida and their virtual elimination from the SEC race. Kentucky meanwhile has played fairly well this year, winning three games and only losing to Florida by 19 points. I'd say this line has value at least to +24 and possibly as far as +21.5.

All right those are all the picks I made Monday. My explanations ended up almost as long as normal, so I'll save the Tuesday ones for later. I will quickly say that I think MyTurn already explained the Mich/PSU game pretty well (Penn State has a good D and weak O, UM's vertical passing game's can be shut down without Manningham), so that's probably all you need to take that game.

[iggymcfly]

Forgot to post it here, even though it's in another thread , but I took

Temple at Clemson -23.5 (1st half) (1.5 units)

[pirateboy]

I realllllllly want to play Kentucky at +26, but I need your take on it first. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[iggymcfly]

Honestly, there's not a lot more to my analysis on the game then what I've got a couple posts up. Just that:

1. Kentucky's played well this year (lost by 31 to a Louisville team that was hugely motivated and is great at running the score up and lost by 19 to a Florida team that's significantly better than LSU while also picking up a nice 17 point win over Ole Miss.

2. LSU's going to have a huge letdown this week. This is a preseason Top 10 team that thought they could win a national title, and with the loss to Florida, they're pretty much eliminated from not only the national race, but the conference race as well.

They're going to come out down against Kentucky, and I think they'll only win by 17 to 21 points.

[Bama Boy]

Loved the Clemson -23.5 1st half line. I put 6 units on it.

Gonna put 2 units on the 2nd half line, since I know they want to practice kick coverage (been a problem), so they need to score to get that unit on the field.

[iggymcfly]

That's the way to start out the week. 2-0, +3 units after easy covers for both Clemson and Boston College.

[iggymcfly]

Major bad beat there as I would have won 7 units on a 5 team teaser if Auburn hadn't run back that last second TD. As it is, I'll still finish up ahead 2 or 3 units but nowhere near where I should be.