KQs UTG - Value Bet This River?

SixForty · #1 10-11-2006, 03:46 AM

I sat and debated for a moment whether or not I should value bet this river. What do you think?

Live 10/20 game - 10 handed, loose aggressive. Typically 5-7 to a flop for one bet each, or 3-5 to a flop if raised.

Reads:
SB - semi-tight/aggressive. Seems to like to checkraise, with made hands, draws and bluffs. Tricky and tough to read.
BB - semi-tight/passive, weak. I play against her on a regular basis, probably 2 out of 3 times I play. She plays here every day, and is predictable, easily readable, and an almost regular donator.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 7 folds, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (3 players, 6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB hesitates, looking like he may checkraise, then calls, BB calls.

Turn: (3 players, 4.5 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (3 players, 10.5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero . . . ?

With BB's play, and her mannerisms during the hand, I'm about 95% sure she missed her club flush draw, which may or may not have been Ace high. She will call with a pair of Aces. She may call with a pair of 7's if she held a flush draw with the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Otherwise, I fully expect her to fold here on the river. (Note, she would have folded any pair below a K on the turn, and would usually fold something like KJ to the two bets cold on the turn)

Do you think SB has a worse hand, and will pay off here often enough? Is it worth it to try?

JJH3984 · #2 10-11-2006, 04:46 AM

I don't think we have a value bet here. SB has us beat with 2 pair a lot.

Niediam · #3 10-11-2006, 05:12 AM

Easy value bet.

Your read says SB doesn't even have to have a pair here. No reason to think that BB has KQ beat.

If you are checkraised you can probably fold though.

JJH3984 · #4 10-11-2006, 05:20 AM

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Your read says SB doesn't even have to have a pair here.

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It actually says that SB might not have a pair. He says SB is semi-tight aggressive and will check-raise draws. Does he do this on the turn or flop? How often will he checkraise a draw compared to just calling the turn? Will he do it in a multiway pot?

eldoctor007 · #5 10-11-2006, 08:07 AM

SB'S river check is fishy. I put the SB on 2 pair 7's and 8's. I think she slowed down on the river because she thinks you might hold AK. Anyway, I doubt she is folding in this pot, with this hand. So I would just check it down.

Harv72b · #6 10-11-2006, 08:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
SB - semi-tight/aggressive. Seems to like to checkraise, with made hands, draws and bluffs.

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It's tough to assign a whole lot with this read--is he check/raising his draws correctly, in multiway pots? Are most of those bluffs in heads up pots? I think these questions really factor in here, especially since I presume that SB will have a similar read on BB as yours.

At any rate, whether SB's turn c/r was a bluff designed to induce 2 folds (or get heads up vs. BB's presumed flush draw) or a made hand trying to protect against the drawy board, that ace on the river will change things. I doubt that he's going for a c/r with a big hand (why face BB with 2 cold on the river if he's holding 2 pair or better, and why give you the opportunity to check through?), but I also doubt that he's calling a bet with anything less than a king with decent kicker. I dunno, his line here looks a lot like he's holding a small/medium pocket pair & was banking that you missed the flop...and he's not going to pay off after the ace hit as well.

Tack on the possibility that BB just rivered top pair with a busted flush draw and your read that she won't pay off with many hands worse than yours, and I really don't see any value in a bet here.

SixForty · #7 10-11-2006, 02:15 PM

Hey all, to expand on this read about the SB checkraising a lot.

Sometimes he'll checkraise his draws appropriately. Sometimes he'll checkraise his draws in the wrong spots, not for value. Sometimes he seems to checkraise just to project more strength than he has. Sometimes he checkraises because it's fun - he'll flop a strong top pair Ace kicker hand which should definitely be bet, but instead he'll checkraise it when he has no reason to believe that someone behind him will bet.

So he just seems to checkraise a lot.

Now, for what it's worth, I'm pretty sure that he'd bet two pair on the river. I don't think he's going to slow down just because of the Ace. I'm sure he'll call with a worse King than mine. And he may call with an 8 - I have seen him show down middle pair before. Obviously, he's folding any bluff.

Also, BB will never checkraise the river. Ever. If she had a strong hand, she would have bet it earlier. And if she has two pair, she's afraid I have a set. I have never seen her checkraise a river before - ever. (If she did, I think I'd rip my cards up, since they'd be useless! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

In the actual hand, I wimped out and just checked, but now I think that a bet may have been good. I think I get calls from a worse King often enough.

James. · #8 10-11-2006, 02:34 PM

hey 64s, i like a bet. i like a bet if i understood the players correctly, that is. as far as mr. tricky checkraiser goes, it sounds like he would play KJ or KT this same way as he knows your range is quite wide from your position. his river check is more a "giving up" thing than a super tricky double c/r thing. he thought you would fold your pocket pair or Ahigh on the turn and now he's scared, but will undoubtably pay off with any king in his hand. this combined with the tendencies of the donator who i believe you somewhere said would pay you off with a pair of sevens, makes it a bet. if you get raised you probably fold. if you get a call you win alot, two calls, not so often. often enough to warrant a value bet in my mind, though.

SixForty · #9 10-11-2006, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hey 64s, i like a bet. i like a bet if i understood the players correctly, that is. as far as mr. tricky checkraiser goes, it sounds like he would play KJ or KT this same way as he knows your range is quite wide from your position. his river check is more a "giving up" thing than a super tricky double c/r thing. he thought you would fold your pocket pair or Ahigh on the turn and now he's scared, but will undoubtably pay off with any king in his hand.

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This was my strong thinking at the time as well

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this combined with the tendencies of the donator who i believe you somewhere said would pay you off with a pair of sevens, makes it a bet. if you get raised you probably fold. if you get a call you win alot, two calls, not so often. often enough to warrant a value bet in my mind, though.

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BB only pays off with a 7 if she happened to have 7X [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and made it to the river with her flush draw. She'll sometimes desperation call for one last bet just in case I was bluffing.

JJH3984 · #10 10-11-2006, 03:34 PM

Since you don't think he'd slow down with 2pair or better in this spot, I'm leaning a lot more towards bet.