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#11
10-09-2006, 08:11 PM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
alright, very little but gut in this, but the fact is i've done better with my gut than with my head so far.
I took 2 units under 24.5 Grudge 2 +153 I enjoy horror movies, and have no interest in seeing this. TCM2 should pull some money (it's the same demographic - morons who don't know a number after the title means it sucks balls) A much better looking movie, and sequel of a better movie, The Ring two made 35mil in March 2005, up againts practically nothing. I'd guess this is about a coinflip at 24.5 so the +153 looks pretty good to me. I like the under on Man of the Year, but not enough to fight -150 on it. Robin Williams star power isn't there anymore, and the best review i've read was mixed at best. I'm on the fence for The Marine. A return to 80s style action (commando, etc) might have more fans than you'd think, and those Wrestling fans could be huge if they come out for this movie. I don't have a feel for how big a star Cena is. If this movie had The Rock or Steve Austin in it, I'd think it'd get 'em out. but I just don't know. +134 looks good for under 6 mil, but i'll probably leave it alone. 
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#13
10-09-2006, 08:26 PM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
Like others here, I personally don't think the Marine looks very good. But it does have a built in WWE and young male audience. WWE has peaked, but still has a pretty strong fanbase, and a PG-13 movie will draw lots of young teens.
The Rock is a much bigger star, but he was able to carry several movies by himself such as Gridiron Gang and The Rundown for $14-19 million (not even considering blockbusters like the Scorpion King at $36 mil). He was even able to take a piece of crap like Walking Tall and open it to $15.5 mil. The Marine looks very similar to Walking Tall to me, with John Cena as the star instead. Even if he only pulls in 2/3 to 3/4 of Walking Tall, that's $10-12 million. Heck, if he's even half as much of a draw, that's around $8 million. And if the WWE-produced See No Evil can do $4.4 with just Christina and an R rating, then Cena and a PG-13 for a pure action movie (haven't been any in a long time, was Crank the last one? martial arts movies a little different) geared towards young males can do much better. The only other choice for young males is horror, since Departed and Man of the Year skew adult. Any teens wanting action will probably see The Marine despite it looking bad. So if anything, it looks like it leans towards the Over right now, although I'm waiting for more info before playing it, because of how it looks, want to get more reactions. What do you guys think about the comparisons given above?
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#14
10-09-2006, 11:02 PM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
I taken a couple of units on the over for the Marine. I honestly thought the o/u would be at least 8 mil. John Cena is the next big thing in the WWE, that movie has a built in audience that's going to go regardless if the movie is crappy or not.
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#16
10-10-2006, 12:56 AM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
the rock was a bigger star then cena. The rock went out and did things like hosted saturday night live and went on talk shoes, even had a best selling book. The rock aslo appeared in several films before walking tall ever came out. I don't know if Cena has anything close to his star power. Also I believe the ratings and fanbase for WWF was bigger back than than the current WWE. I don't know anything about movie betting, I just know I'm 22 and when I was about 14-16 just about everyone my age seemed to know who the rock was. Hope that helps your bets, good luck.
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#17
10-10-2006, 01:13 AM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have an idea of hjow many screens each movie will utilize or hwere to get that data [/ QUOTE ] http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/
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#18
10-10-2006, 01:28 AM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
honestly, i never heard of cena before i heard about this movie. Didnt even know he was a wrestler until i read this thread. I certainly knew about the Rock before his first movie. I am certainly not going to take the under considering some of your opinions, but i think i would be a little cautious going the other way.
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#19
10-10-2006, 03:58 PM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
Obviously The Rock was a much bigger star, and people in the mainstream, not just WWE, had heard of him. Obviously WWE was much bigger during the Steve Austin-Rock era. No one's saying otherwise.
What people are saying, is that if Cena is even half the draw the The Rock is, this would easily go Over. Walking Tall is another piece of crap, no? $15.5 mil. A line of 6 on The Marine is only 39% of that figure. So if Cena can do 40% of The Rock's business, it's solid, and there is a built-in WWE/young male audience regardless of how crappy it is. I took a small Over, because that's where the line is headed, and $6 is such a low number, and there's probably more fanboys to come in on the Over. But I'm still not making any significant, official plays because it does look like crap, and I want to see what reactions are like later in the week.
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#20
10-10-2006, 04:13 PM
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Re: 10/13 Movie Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously The Rock was a much bigger star, and people in the mainstream, not just WWE, had heard of him. Obviously WWE was much bigger during the Steve Austin-Rock era. No one's saying otherwise. What people are saying, is that if Cena is even half the draw the The Rock is, this would easily go Over. Walking Tall is another piece of crap, no? $15.5 mil. A line of 6 on The Marine is only 39% of that figure. So if Cena can do 40% of The Rock's business, it's solid, and there is a built-in WWE/young male audience regardless of how crappy it is. I took a small Over, because that's where the line is headed, and $6 is such a low number, and there's probably more fanboys to come in on the Over. But I'm still not making any significant, official plays because it does look like crap, and I want to see what reactions are like later in the week. [/ QUOTE ]I am not touching this movie unless it hits +200 on the under. I like the over normally a lot here. But, there is the Grudge 2 and that will suck away a heck of a lot of dollars from this movie. There are only so many $s to go around.
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