Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?

[Canard]

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When Party split with the skins (Empire, Now, etc), didn't the skins lose a huge % of their player-base? Nobody freaked out about getting their money out of Empire at the time from what I remember. Fair comparison?

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That's not the way I remember it! Someone dig up the archives...

[jimmytrick]

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Mister Z, the skins didn't lose their player-base, they just lost the additional players coming in from the Party software. Here we are looking at 3/4's of Party's players going away. Any of the in the know non-US players will also be leaving Party looking for greener pastures. Party is going to really struggle to stay afloat the next couple years if they don't allow the U.S. market back in. Now if you have money in Party but don't play their enough to justify leaving it sitting there then cashout, but your money is still safe at Party.

-Brendan

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Thats talking out of both sides of your mouth at the same time.

Face it.

Party over.

Use it or lose it.

Get out while you can.

[sbj99]

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If Party does not have the funds to pay all of those who cashout

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This is the false premise in your argument.
Today, Party is, what, a 1.6 billion company?
It is absurd to even think that a 1.6 billion company can not raise something between 0 and 192.6-132.9 million to pay out these cashouts.

I mean, Dikshit personally owns close to 30% of that 1.6 billion company. Wouldn't you think it's even in his personal interest to raise the funds? Theoretically, if all else fails, they could issue a corporate bond and Dikshit would provide the cashout money for American fish from his pocket money

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Do these guys really believe that their non-US business is going to do well if other sites still cater to the US? I think most of us agree that the success of any poker site is dependent on the american fish.

That said, it's possible that the big guys at Party could take their losses and walk away. They can't be so naive to think that their business will be ok without their US customers can they?

btw- they would need to borrow quite a bit more than the difference between current cash and deposits. They would need cash to fund the business as it trasnforms. I have no idea how much this would be, but I'm sure it's not insignificant.

[jimmytrick]

Why would anyone leave their money at Party when there is at least a chance they will go under and nothing to gain. Its not like the games will be worthwhile after the cutoff.

It wouldn't be a bad thing if Party stiffs US players for a couple or 40 million. Because people will still play and it would be good ammunition for US regulation, which is inevitable anyway. A large loss for US players would only hasten that.

If there is anything that Congress likes better than telling its citizens they can't do something, its dictating how they can do it and taxing the activity.

[Muad'Dib83]

It will be a disaster indeed but i doubt that Party will go out of bussines, you underestimate the fish from outside the US, i know that there is like 75% of US players and when they will leave, also some non US players will leave for sure, but the fish will stay, most of them probably not even knowing what has occured in last couple of months, but i think Party will be able to start building some bussines again. It will be a tough job but they have done it before and they can do it again, they won't just leave this goldmine like someone before me said although it looks like they don't care (cutting off US players etc.).

I'm wondering how much money does Party have via non poker games, for example their casino and betting on gamebookers which they bought sometime ago etc.?

I'm pretty sure they can cover all the cashouts which are going to start happening pretty soon. If not, online poker/gambling would get a very dark mark.

[LozColbert]

So far, I've cashed out several times this week. They've all been superfast.

[Ace upmy Slv]

FYI

I cashed out for 10K directly to my bank account last Monday from Party Poker. It hit my account and cleared on Wednesday. I cashed out for 10K into my Neteller account last Tuesday and that also posted into my Neteller account last Wednesday. I then cashed the rest of my Party Poker money last Tuesday directly into my bank account. I got the emails that it was approved and was processing last Wednesday. However, it still hasn't posted into my account as of today. This was the last of my money, so I hope that doesn't have anything to do with it sincee my other withdraws still left me with money in my Party account.

I transfered my money from Neteller into Full Tilt last Wednesday and have been playing there ever since. I love it there and wish I would have switched a long time ago. Full Tilt is run so much better than Party Poker, has better features, and has already responded to my emails and addressed my questions and concerns quickly. I would email Party about problems and they would NEVER even email me back sometimes, even after several emails.

There were over 20K players playing this weekend at Full Tilt and trust me, there was just as good of money there at the 5/10 and 10/20 NL tables as there was at Party!

For the record, I don't think Party will go under or not cash out players money, but I really see no reason for a US player to have any money there at this time.

[No Fizzle]

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If there is anything that Congress likes better than telling its citizens they can't do something, its dictating how they can do it and taxing the activity.

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Like what, exactly? Pot? Prostitution? Legalized gambling in all states?

There are PLENTY of things that the US Government could make a boatload of money from by making legal, and they haven't done it and will not do it. Therefore, I find your point without merit.

[Sniper]

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So you believe that after Party wipes out 85% of it's players that the entire 15% remaining who they will permit to access their site will remain? Every last one? I doubt that very highly.

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I do not have to believe that every non-US player there currently will stay to know that Party will continue to be a profitable company, and will increase overall its non-US business; which will still leave them the #1 poker site, until the US players who leave find a new home.

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Furthermore, do you honestly believe that if Party does encounter problems with paying all those U.S. players they are pushing off their servers, that it won't have an effect that completely wipes Party off the face of the gaming world?

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I do not believe that Party will have any trouble meeting its payout obligations to current US players and other who cash out! I am certain that I had read somewhere that Party kept players funds in segregated accounts, possibly in its paypro subsidiary... but at the moment, I can't find where I had read that.

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What I am saying is this: If Party does not have the funds to pay all of those who cashout, then it will cause such a large problem for their image (on top of throwing away 85% of their players) that I don't see how they could recover, and it would really hurt online poker in general, as people would be less likely to bother with any other site if they have already lost money like this.

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I agree that it would be a significant problem, not just for Party, but for the entire poker market... but as I've stated many times, I put the chance of Party not being able to cover player cashout requests at ZERO.

[sbj99]

My cash breakdown has been corrected in the Baron's thread. It looks like they'll have no problem covering 100% player cashouts.