stars sunday million -- flop flush and st8 draw

Chesters Dad · #1 10-09-2006, 12:50 PM

I am never quite sure how aggressive to be with big draws like this -- do I want to just call and try to hit them, and risk not getting paid when I hit, or do I want to raise with them?

reads: UTG+1 here has pushed 3 times, once over the top of my c-bet, and I folded, another time after flopping a straight with A3o. Another time vs someone else, with no showdown. No strong reads on those after me, mostly the table has been pretty tight.

Blinds are 25/50

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB (t2035)
UTG (t1560)
UTG+1 (t9290)
Hero (t3285)
MP2 (t1865)
MP3 (t2210)
CO (t4915)
Button (t2530)
SB (t2045)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, Hero calls t50, 2 folds, CO calls t50, Button calls t50, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (t275) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets t400,

What's your line here? call, raise (how much and why?) or push?

This is probably pretty standard for most people, but I'd love feedback because I am never quite sure how to play these. How much do I worry about those behind me? Do I want to gamble it up, or keep the pot small at this point?

Bullet_Dodger · #2 10-09-2006, 01:05 PM

UTG +1 looks like he flopped something pretty big. There is no reason for him to overbet this flop 2nd to act with 3 players behind him unless he feels pretty confident. I think if you raise he's going to play with you ... and you'll be forced to take the slight gamble or make a tough laydown. You want to avoid some slight edges against a bigger stack if you can.

I would just call in this spot and hope to double up on the turn if a diamond, Q, or 7 hits. If it is blank then you are probably going to have to fold given that most turn bets will force you to put at a minimum 35-40% of your stack in, and youll have little fold equity.

registrar · #3 10-09-2006, 01:15 PM

When I first started playing MTTs, I pushed or overbet every draw. Then I calmed down. Then I started doing it again.

Given my deficiencies post-flop, deep stacked, pushing in situations like this works for me. If you think you have any way of a) using position to take the pot down without making a hand b) getting all your chips in when the scare card falls then I think you have a range of options.

Personally, I think that we're very rarely very far behind and it's too obvious when we make the hand and villain is not committed, that I would push here every time. As long as he doesn't have KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you're in good shape whatever happens so even though it's a pretty transparent move and he will call if folded back to him with any made hand, this is such a strong draw that that's the way to go. If you take down the pot, that's nice too.

Bullet_Dodger · #4 10-09-2006, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think that we're very rarely very far behind

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, actually, its impossible for you to be very far behind here.(AKd,KQd worst case scenario at 75/25)

registrar · #5 10-09-2006, 01:19 PM

KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but that's unlikely given his overbet when first to act.

Maxxx333 · #6 10-09-2006, 01:49 PM

The likeliest hand UTG+1 is holding is AJ/KJ, maybe QJ. The overbet feels too much like a "take the pot down right here" bet. Problem with the raise is that, against a big stack like this, we are pretty much committed here because a pot-size raise requires us to commit almost half of our stack, giving us big implied odds.
On the other hand, I am really not a big fan of a call here. Someone behind you can be holding a K/Q high flush draw, and they now have the odds to call. Now you have 6 outs (3 of which to the crappy end of the s8t).
So, my line is this: if you feel you have seen UTG+1 fold, or at least haven't seen him call big bets yet, push all-in (good for image building). Otherwise, fold and move on.

McMelchior · #7 10-09-2006, 02:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG +1 looks like he flopped something pretty big. There is no reason for him to overbet this flop 2nd to act with 3 players behind him unless he feels pretty confident.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting analysis. I'm not sure how you can conclude that. I see people make these types of over-bets with shaky hands, trying to protect against flush draws.

[ QUOTE ]
You want to avoid some slight edges against a bigger stack if you can.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's the rationale behind this line? The only reason I can think of is that if you're up against a poorly playing bigger stack you might have less FE, meaning he'll be willing to take the worst of it knowing you can't bust him. But you'd love that.

You can't win a tournament without winning coin-flips, and here's one where you're likely to be ahead, even if it's not by a lot.

The worst range your opponent could possibly hold here would be [22, AJs+, KQs+] leaving you 48/52. But there's no way to narrow his holding down this radically.

Flat calling is going to give away your hand as a draw, making it easy for opponent to push you out if the turn comes obviously blank - which will happen way more often than not.

I'm raising here - like 90% of the time. With 675 in the pot and effective stacks of 3,235 I'm probably making it 1,100, calling if he pushes, and pushing my remaining 2,135 on the turn if he calls and checks to me.

Should he flat call your raise and push a blank turn you'll be able to fold and still have 42 BB left.

mornelth · #8 10-09-2006, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG +1 looks like he flopped something pretty big. There is no reason for him to overbet this flop 2nd to act with 3 players behind him unless he feels pretty confident.

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting analysis. I'm not sure how you can conclude that. I see people make these types of over-bets with shaky hands, trying to protect against flush draws.

[ QUOTE ]
You want to avoid some slight edges against a bigger stack if you can.

[/ QUOTE ]
What's the rationale behind this line? The only reason I can think of is that if you're up against a poorly playing bigger stack you might have less FE, meaning he'll be willing to take the worst of it knowing you can't bust him. But you'd love that.

You can't win a tournament without winning coin-flips, and here's one where you're likely to be ahead, even if it's not by a lot.

The worst range your opponent could possibly hold here would be [22, AJs+, KQs+] leaving you 48/52. But there's no way to narrow his holding down this radically.

Flat calling is going to give away your hand as a draw, making it easy for opponent to push you out if the turn comes obviously blank - which will happen way more often than not.

I'm raising here - like 90% of the time. With 675 in the pot and effective stacks of 3,235 I'm probably making it 1,100, calling if he pushes, and pushing my remaining 2,135 on the turn if he calls and checks to me.

Should he flat call your raise and push a blank turn you'll be able to fold and still have 42 BB left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad line, but folding the turn SUCKS. Our current equity of around 50% is only if we see next two cards as we're only like 25% to hit on the next card. Not to mention that MOST opponents will give up without a flush on a diamond turn - but will stack you if THEY have diamonds.

Myself - I'm more likely to push this flop.

Cornell Fiji · #9 10-09-2006, 02:47 PM

I normally push this but I don't hate a fold.

I do hate a call. I think fold equity is worth more to you than implied odds here. 675 chips is a nice addition to your stack while 400 is a decent hit. Also you really need to push out any late position flush draws or your hand loses most of its value.

I also agree that the overbet might be the villain trying to make his one stab with a AJ type hand that is looking to take the pot down now with any 7/8/9/T/Q/K/A/[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] representing potential scare cards on this flop... or he could have a monster, but unless he has overs and a flush draw your monster is at least a coinflip.

Actually... the more I think about this the more I like a push...

Chesters Dad · #10 10-09-2006, 05:35 PM

Here's what happened next:

Hero raises to t1200, CO folds, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to t8800, Hero calls t2035 (All-In)

Most people said push, but I raised to 1200, what does everyone think? Easy call when villian pushes for 2035 more? So in theory, if I am going to call the reraise all in, why not just push in the first place? Or is 1200 with the intention of calling his push an ok line? I was basically thinking I want us both in now, before the turn, in case he can fold when I hit my hand.