Newbie Question: Parlay, Baltimore @ Denver

LBCT · #1 10-09-2006, 01:19 AM

Hi,
I have searched through the boards and read that hedging parlays is -EV, and that you shouldn't be doing parlays in the first place. Having said that this is my situation and I would appreciate it if you could give me any feedback.

I have a 10-team MONEY LINE parlay that I put down because I thought it had a very good chance of coming through:

Minnesota WIN
New Orleans WIN
St Louis WIN
New England WIN
Chicago WIN
Carolina WIN
Jacksonville WIN
Kansas City WIN
San Francisco WIN
Denver ???

So basically I made the stupid mistake of picking the Monday game as part of this parlay... and I would like your honest opinion on what I should do.

For the parlay I wagered $45 to win $994.43

I am considering betting Baltimore +5.5 to lock in profit and potentially gain extra profit.. this is what I'm thinking:

Bet $544.46 on Baltimore +5.5

If Denver wins by 6 or more, I win 994.43-544.46 = $449.97
If Denver wins by 1 to 5, I win 994.43+494.96 = $1489.39
If Baltimore wins, I win -45+494.96 = $449.96

Is this a good plan or should I just let it ride / wager less on the hedge (if you believe Denver will definitely cover)? Could someone suggest something better?

How likely do you think it is that Denver will win by more than 6, or that Baltimore will cover?

THANK YOU!!!

TTChamp · #2 10-09-2006, 01:44 AM

Congrats on going nine of ten.

The first thing that popped into my head here was to open an account on a new site use the free play to bet on the Baltimore money line and the bonus money to bet the spread.

You don't say what site you are on, but if you do hedge you should definitely do it on pinnacle (for low juice) or a site with good sign up bonii.

As an example you could put $300 or so into a site like BetJamaica. That should get you a freeplay and some bonus money. You could use the free play to bet the ravens on the moneyline (currently around +220) and then bet the rest on the Ravens and the spread. If DEN wins by >=6 then your new account will be busto, but you would have risked less to hedge. If Baltimore wins then you will be well on your way to clearing the bonus in the new account. If DEN wins by less than 6 you will be in good shape in both accounts.

When it comes down to it there is really no reason to hedge unless your feelings have changed on the last game or if you want to make certain that you win something. My advice is that if you do decide to hedge then it makes sense to hedge with as much bonus/freeplay money as possible.

Thremp · #3 10-09-2006, 01:47 AM

Repeating advice I've heard from others.

1) Hedging is -EV

2) If you need to hedge you likely overbet your roll and should have bet a 9 team parlay.

3) You can use your cEV to determine where is the appropriate spot to hedge.

You method of hedging is fine. Almost all are decent.

mulebennett · #4 10-09-2006, 02:04 AM

1. don't hedge, let it ride baby!
2. read this, it'll make you feel great about betting Denver
3. congrats on your bet so far, don't touch baltimore (they lost a key O-Lineman and McNair cannot help this pitiful offense score)

LBCT · #5 10-09-2006, 03:09 AM

Thank you TTChamp, Thremp, and mulebennett

I'm a newbie but I hope to learn. That article on Denver was nice but at the bottom there was also a link to this http://www.covers.com/articles/artic...507&tid=27 which is also pretty convincing.

Anyway I am going ahead with my HEDGE, so ideally I'll want the Broncos to win by a field goal!!!

Morphling29 · #6 10-09-2006, 06:15 AM

This would be convincing except that it says Darrent Williams is a rookie, when he is not. I can't read an artical from a so called expert that gets something that wrong. The Den reasoning was much better imo

Lori · #7 10-09-2006, 07:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So basically I made the stupid mistake of picking the Monday game as part of this parlay...

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing that this is the mistake is the important part.

The rest you have to assume you're around 50-50 of winning and that hedging is -EV. All you need to do then is work out your own personal risk/reward comfort levels and hedge the minimum that you'd feel comfortable with.

Lori

Homer · #8 10-09-2006, 09:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So basically I made the stupid mistake of picking the Monday game as part of this parlay

[/ QUOTE ]

Why was choosing that game a stupid mistake?

[ QUOTE ]
and I would like your honest opinion on what I should do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't hedge. If you decide to hedge, next time bet less money or fewer teams on the parlay.

[ QUOTE ]
Bet $544.46 on Baltimore +5.5

If Denver wins by 6 or more, I win 994.43-544.46 = $449.97
If Denver wins by 1 to 5, I win 994.43+494.96 = $1489.39
If Baltimore wins, I win -45+494.96 = $449.96

[/ QUOTE ]

The numbers seem right.

[ QUOTE ]
should I just let it ride

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
wager less on the hedge (if you believe Denver will definitely cover)

[/ QUOTE ]

There are always going to be people who think Denver will cover, and people who think Balt will cover. You have to go with your own feelings or with someone you trust as a solid capper. Since you bet Balt to begin with, don't question yourself now just because there is more money on the line.

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone suggest something better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Another option is to fully hedge on the moneyline to lock in a greater profit with no variance.

[ QUOTE ]
How likely do you think it is that Denver will win by more than 6, or that Baltimore will cover?

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver will win by 6 or more approximately 42.53% of the time.

Lori · #9 10-09-2006, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why was choosing that game a stupid mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Choosing a game that isn't simultaneous with the others puts you in the position where logically it's probably right to hedge. Therefore you either shouldn't include it in the first place or bet small enough that hedging isn't required.

I'd be happy to accept that the mistake is overbetting not having the detatched game if that's what your driving at.

Lori

Howling · #10 10-09-2006, 12:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why was choosing that game a stupid mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Choosing a game that isn't simultaneous with the others puts you in the position where logically it's probably right to hedge. Therefore you either shouldn't include it in the first place or bet small enough that hedging isn't required.

I'd be happy to accept that the mistake is overbetting not having the detatched game if that's what your driving at.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

If it is 'right' to hedge, then didn't he make a great play putting this game in, giving him the option of hedging?