Week 7 CFB Notions (and Season Recap)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

As you probably know, it has not been a good season for me so far. After this weekend, I went back to look at my plays to this point to try to get some answers. My conclusion: despite consistently getting better-than-average numbers, my plays have not been especially good. Frankly, I don't think that my luck has been good either, in a number of regards (i.e. lots of close losses, some bad beats, and, WORST of all, a bunch of Jekyll and Hyde performances from teams that I was trying to back/fade).

But, the fact is that I don't think I have a lot of room to complain. As bad as my weekend was, it could have easily been worse. Temple and Texas might have looked like "right" sides, but neither one was, and I was fortunate to win both. And, that has held true throughout the season; I'd say that, looking back, I don't feel good about almost one-third of my wins. Just as I could be well in the black with some slightly better luck, I could be MUCH farther in the red if my luck were terrible to this point, rather than just bad.

So, the point that I am trying to make is that, to this point, the "handicapping" hasn't been there. I've been so caught up in trying to find "value" that I haven't paid sufficient attention to finding good match-ups. So, yesterday, I worked my ass off, and I think that I've found a bunch of plays that I'm going to feel good about, win or lose.

The basis of my handicapping strategy is as follows:

1) Look to play teams that have outstanding run offenses or run defenses; look to fade teams that cannot run or cannot stop the run
2) Look to play teams that win the turnover battle; look to fade teams that lose the turnover battle
3) Look for teams that have success/problems against one specific type of opponent (e.g. running QB's)

So, with that in mind, here are my plays for this week. So far, it's a mixed bag as far as getting the best of the number, but I think that I've got the best of it by a smidge to this point.

2 units - Oklahoma -19.5 -105 vs Iowa St.
2 units - Oklahoma/Iowa St. o46 -105
2 units - Bowling Green -11 -105 vs E. Michigan
2 units - Bowling Green/E. Michigan o49.5 -105
2 units - S. Florida -4.5 -105 at UNC (AWFUL number [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])
2 units - W. Virginia -25.5 -105 vs Syracuse
2 units - Colorado St./Air Force u47 -105
2 units - Tulsa -2.5 -105 at ECU
2 units - Kansas St. +14 -115 vs Nebraska (GREAT number [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
2 units - UCLA +11.5 -108 at Oregon
2 units - Oregon St. +11 -105 at Washington

Write-ups will come periodically. As always, all thoughts are appreciated.

ML4L

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]

2 units - Oklahoma/Iowa St. o46 -105

[/ QUOTE ]
don't know how i missed this one after looking at okla/texas 48 for so long last week. when i saw this post i went to books real quick to bet it, heh. doh.

[ QUOTE ]

2 units - Bowling Green/E. Michigan o49.5 -105


[/ QUOTE ]
bet this about 15 minutes before seeing this post. maybe we were listening to same material, don't know.

[ QUOTE ]

2 units - S. Florida -4.5 -105 at UNC (AWFUL number [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

[/ QUOTE ]
i can see how you might have bet this, however with a number like this, when predicting, you can't expect UNC to go off as a big dog at home against SFU. there will always be bettors who keep this down. i should've had this same thought when betting florida +1.5.

[ QUOTE ]

2 units - Kansas St. +14 -115 vs Nebraska (GREAT number [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])


[/ QUOTE ]
i nearly bet this +13.5 last night but just stared at the number and didn't think about it. sometimes subconscious thoughts are more true than conscious ones.

[ QUOTE ]

2 units - Oregon St. +11 -105 at Washington

[/ QUOTE ]
huskies a natural fade after the effort they put up against the trojans

some good ncaa work being done in irc channel on sunday

[ML4L]

1 unit - Colorado St. +7 -119
1 unit - Colorado St. ML +216

ML4L

[sfwusc]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

2 units - S. Florida -4.5 -105 at UNC (AWFUL number [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

[/ QUOTE ]
i can see how you might have bet this, however with a number like this, when predicting, you can't expect UNC to go off as a big dog at home against SFU. there will always be bettors who keep this down. i should've had this same thought when betting florida +1.5.



[/ QUOTE ]


That Florida +1 looks good now. I was upset earlier when I got it at -1 +114, and it moved against me. Now it looks really smart now.

-SFWUSC

[pirateboy]

S. Florida is now -2.5 -110 at Bowmans ... how much better of a line is -2.5 than -4.5 (besides the 3 and 4 point advantage)?

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
S. Florida is now -2.5 -110 at Bowmans ... how much better of a line is -2.5 than -4.5 (besides the 3 and 4 point advantage)?

[/ QUOTE ]


What do you mean, "besides the 3 and 4"? The 3 and 4 are the whole reason 2.5 is better than 4.5, and the difference is huge. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Excluding wins on the 3 and 4, the answer is: 2.5 is not better than 4.5.

[pirateboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
S. Florida is now -2.5 -110 at Bowmans ... how much better of a line is -2.5 than -4.5 (besides the 3 and 4 point advantage)?

[/ QUOTE ]


What do you mean, "besides the 3 and 4"? The 3 and 4 are the whole reason 2.5 is better than 4.5, and the difference is huge. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Excluding wins on the 3 and 4, the answer is: 2.5 is not better than 4.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, you're right, that was a dumb question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[iggymcfly]

I'd be careful on that Oregon State pick. Last week, the Beavers lost to a WSU team slightly worse than UW by 7 at home, and their losses to ranked teams were both by 4 TDs. At Husky Stadium, I'd set the natural line there around 13 or 14. Also, coming close against an upper-tier team like that when it's not a late collapse, I think actually helps a team momentum wise. I wouldn't be surprised to see UW come out pumped and just destroy the Beavers.

The one pick I do really like is the ISU/Okla over though. Iowa State's defense has been terrible all year long while their offense is very good. I was just about to get on it myself, and then I looked and saw it's up to 49.5 now, so you definitely got a good number there.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
2 units - UCLA +11.5 -108 at Oregon
2 units - Oregon St. +11 -105 at Washington

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm the Oregon expert, so I guess I should chime in on this. First off, for the game between my Northwest neighbors, I really don't like picking Oregon State. I have seen no indication that the Beavers are anything other than terrible this year, and plan on fading them until they prove me wrong. I hate the Huskies more than anything, but even though this is the ultimate "letdown game" situation, I think they should cover this easily. Of course I'm getting in at -9.5, so here's hoping for the 10 point Husky win [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

As for the UCLA pick, obviously you got a good line, compared to the move. I think, though that in this case the move created value, rather than being a case of sharpening. I think the 10.5-12 range provided no value on either side. Now that the line has moved to under 10, I'm considering the Ducks. Basically what this situation comes down to is that if both teams play their A game, or if both teams play their C-D game, I think Oregon wins by at least 10 almost every time. I don't think they do so often enough to give Oregon -11.5 any value, and Oregon is more likely to come out flat tan UCLA is, but I don't feel that's enough to make UCLA +11.5 +ev, though it may well be a break even bet. I don't think you have much edge here, and for anyone looking at this game now, with the line in single digits, I think the (albeit somewhat small) edge now lies with Oregon. UCLA's defense just isn't good enough to keep them in this game, and the strength of their offense is in the running game, where Oregon has haf problems, but has also shown an ability to get stops. I think UCLA gets some scores, puts up good rushing stats, but has too many 3-and-outs to keep it close, if Oregon comes out ready to play.

Sorry about the incoherence of this post, I just typed it on the fly, and didn't go back and re-read it, so it may or may not be comprehensible...

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be surprised to see UW come out pumped and just destroy the Beavers.


[/ QUOTE ]