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#71
10-09-2006, 02:22 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There's plenty of coverage from wall street, at least 5 or 6 firms. They all put out reports around news, earnings but not this time. [/ QUOTE ] This coverage is coming from their global markets depts... and as I've noted elsewhere, we have far more information than they do [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Yes, obviously from their european/global analysts but the "wall street" firms have regularly put out reports on this company. UBS, Morgan Stanley, ABN AMRO, Deutshe Bank, HSBC. None of them have anything of interest to say and it's been a week. And no, we don't know more than them about the financials of the company. 
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#72
10-09-2006, 02:23 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
OP, if you are offering 9:1 odds, I'll gladly take that bet.
That is, let's find a secure third party. You put in 1k and I'll put in 9k. Then, cash out 10k on Party Poker this coming Saturday. If you never get the 10k cashout from Party Poker, then you get the 10k in the third party account. If you do get the funds, then I get the 10k. I believe this is a good bet for me since I believe there is less than a 1% chance of party poker not cashing you out.
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#74
10-09-2006, 02:32 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
[ QUOTE ]
OP, if you are offering 9:1 odds, I'll gladly take that bet. That is, let's find a secure third party. You put in 1k and I'll put in 9k. Then, cash out 10k on Party Poker this coming Saturday. If you never get the 10k cashout from Party Poker, then you get the 10k in the third party account. If you do get the funds, then I get the 10k. I believe this is a good bet for me since I believe there is less than a 1% chance of party poker not cashing you out. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are the one offering the 9:1 odds. PairTheBoard
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#75
10-09-2006, 02:35 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On Monday October 2nd, a day when Party stock opened at less than half of its previous value, its executives cashed in something in the neighborhood of $20 million dollars in options. [/ QUOTE ] What's your source for this assertion? I saw another report saying Party Insiders have been buying stock at the depressed price. PairTheBoard [/ QUOTE ] Source Looks to be some sort of securities disclosure document. It's posted on the PartyGaming home page.
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#76
10-09-2006, 03:05 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
[ QUOTE ]
I used to be a highly rated stock market analyst - sell I would bet serious money that the investment community does not understand that the exit of US players will lead to the exit of international pros i.e they are losing 95%, not 75%, of business. There is tremendous leverage to this dynamic. The investment community also does not understand that in 1-3 months, party's core fish customer base (unaware something is amiss right now) will move on to other sites and forget about party. "Party Poker" brand equity will realistically eveaporate far quicker than a 40 stock price implies. It will costa lot to rebuild - ask the folks who are trying to build absolute etc. Please excuse my poor spelling and grammer - never my strengths. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this 100%. Once Party loses the critical mass they have today, they'll be just another also-ran with a lobby that looks like a ghost-town. Once they shut the door on US customers, it's officially over for them.
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#77
10-09-2006, 03:08 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
[ QUOTE ]
OP, if you are offering 9:1 odds, I'll gladly take that bet. [/ QUOTE ] I think 9:1 is about right, but I no longer need a hedge as my money is out and don't feel like taking EV neutral bets with people over the internet. I really don't know that much about the liquidity of Party right now anyway. But, I'd gladly risk everything I own shorting Party if I was able to, as the outcome in the medium term is something that I'm extremely confident about.
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#79
10-09-2006, 03:20 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I used to be a highly rated stock market analyst - sell I would bet serious money that the investment community does not understand that the exit of US players will lead to the exit of international pros i.e they are losing 95%, not 75%, of business. There is tremendous leverage to this dynamic. The investment community also does not understand that in 1-3 months, party's core fish customer base (unaware something is amiss right now) will move on to other sites and forget about party. "Party Poker" brand equity will realistically eveaporate far quicker than a 40 stock price implies. It will costa lot to rebuild - ask the folks who are trying to build absolute etc. Please excuse my poor spelling and grammer - never my strengths. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this 100%. Once Party loses the critical mass they have today, they'll be just another also-ran with a lobby that looks like a ghost-town. Once they shut the door on US customers, it's officially over for them. [/ QUOTE ] Other sites are considered successful, with far less revenue coming in than Party has from its non-US business. While some non-US players may shift, I believe they will still have a substantial player base and will continue their non-US marketing efforts to further enhance their position.
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#80
10-09-2006, 04:24 AM
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Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
One way of looking at it is that a stock price of 40 for Party is implying
1. A realistic if not growth business model (for their non- US business) after withdrawl from the US. This is a very, very risky assumption. PLUS (In Bold) 2. Option value that they can recover some or all of its existing position in the US once they clarrify the regulatory environment and their potential liability to operating in the US. How can anyone who has played a lot on both Party and Stars think that the fish - after a long stint at Stars - will go back to Party? Stars is just a much better consumer experience and this will accelerate a trend/development that would have occured over time i.e Poker Stars eats away at Pary's market share. My point is that there are a lot of risky assumptions still embedded in Party's current share price. Please keep in mind that the gaming analysts covering these stocks are not going to make their careers saying sell after a stock falls 60%, but they can lose their careers saying sell and being wrong. Anyone who holds the stock and waits for the sell-side's analysis will lose what value their stock holdings still have. Hedge funds should all be researching this left/right (if as a previous commentator noted it is still possible to short the stock) and be shorting this thing in size. Please excuse my poor spelling and grammer.
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