im not winning. why? (stats post)

[bungyrocks]

Hi everyone.
My name is Alan, I used to post here every now and then before taking a break from poker for a few months. I was a constistent winner at 2-4 earning approximately 2bb/100h over a half million hands or so. Ive been playing again for a month and feel good about the way I am playing, the only problem is that im not winning. Im at approximately 0.3bb/100 hands over 60,000 hands, and yes, i know thats quite a small sample size but I feel there must be some leaks I havent been able to find and plug. This is the first of many posts I hope as I plan to get back into the community here and contribute.
I will begin by giving my stats from PT and hopefully I will get some good feedback from you experienced players on here.

Total Hands: 60,076 AMT won: $751
VPIP: 16.73
V$SB: 23.08
Folded SB to Steal: 86.77
Folded BB to Steal: 71.97
Att to Steal Blinds: 28.02
Went to SD%: 31.90
Won $ at SD: 55.59
PF raise: 7.59
PFAF: 0.67
Flop AF: 2.42
Turn AF: 2.48
River AF: 1.36
Total AF: 1.28

cheers,
Alan

[JJH3984]

post hands. 2,000,000>60,000. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Allday Everyday]

This is my first attempt at examining someone else's stats. Hopefully, I'm not too far wrong.

These are full-ring limit stats, right?

As far as I can see, your stats are good in places, but have a few noticeable problems. The two major problems I can see are blind stealing situations and general postflop aggression.

Your VPIP is close to 17. That's not too bad IMO. If you're a better player than most others at the table, you should perhaps play a few more hands.

You have a PF raise of 7.5. This is a bit low IMO. I think this should be around the 10 mark. One way to get this up would be to steal more...

You have a Att to Steal of 28. This is too low IMO. I think should be closer to 40 than 30.

As for defending your blinds, I don't think you do it enough. I think you should call and reraise much more from both blinds.

You WSD% and W$SD look very good to me. You seem to know when to fold 'em postflop.

As for your aggression, I think, you're far too passive. I think you need to work to get that TOT postflop AF well over 2.

So, I think you should work on your blind stealing and on your aggression both preflop and postflop. I think this would improve your winrate.

[bungyrocks]

thanks for that. very thoughtful post.
I remember a while back, perhaps a year ago there was a massive stats post and 2+2 averages were computed for stats such as defending the blinds and blind steals etc but I cant seem to find it now!

I have been trying to restrict the number of hands I play - first week back I was around 20-21 which i think is far too high. I was playing hands like QTo and KTo which I no longer like to play, as well as not playing the Axs hands until LP with a few limpers. Its all very well playing tighter but it seems ive lost some aggressiveness in the process, especially with PFRaises.

[Allday Everyday]

In my opinion, a VPIP of 20 or 21 wouldn't usually be far too high if you're much better than most players in the games you play. If you play the extra 3-4% of hands well, I think your winrate would be slightly better than if you had a VPIP of 17.

[ QUOTE ]
I was playing hands like QTo and KTo which I no longer like to play

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think these are usually junk hands. However, in some situations, such as blind stealing situations, they are can be very profitable hands...

[WalkAmongUs]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember a while back, perhaps a year ago there was a massive stats post and 2+2 averages were computed for stats such as defending the blinds and blind steals etc but I cant seem to find it now!

[/ QUOTE ]

link

[Harv72b]

I really need to save this reply into a text file so that I can just cut & paste it. Really, your problem appears to be the same one that just about everyone who asks for a stats review has.

You need to raise more preflop, you need to attempt to steal the blinds more often, and you need to defend your own blinds more.

The PFR problem aside (much of that will be fixed by steal-raises alone), blind stealing & defending is a simple question of percentages. If it's folded to you on the button, look at how tight the blinds play, how well they play relative to you, and how strong your own hand is...in that order. If the blinds are very tight and (like you) don't defend their blinds often enough, then the second two conditions don't even apply--simply raise every time until they start adjusting.

In this scenario, in a standard 2/4 game, there is $3 sitting in the pot just waiting for you to claim it. A raise costs you $4, so you are risking $4 to win $3. If your opponents will fold outright at least 58% of the time, this is a winning play...even if you're holding 72 offsuit. Against a player like you, who is only defending his big blind 28% of the time (and isn't adjusting his playing standards against a possible steal raise at all when he's in the SB), that's a no brainer raise every single time.

Against a player who does defend his blinds more often, and especially against one who will defend them aggressively, you have to cut down your steal hands quite a bit...but you should still be raising with a lot of hands! Any ace. Most kings. Any suited king. A lot of queen high hands, suited or not. JT offsuit, some smaller suited jacks. Pocket pairs. Suited connectors.

On the flip side, when you're in the BB and a late position player opens it for a raise, look at the pot odds you're getting. If nobody else is involved in the pot, then it lies at $7 when it gets to you, and you have to call $2 to see the flop. Those are immediate odds of 3.5:1--any hand you have, providing it is not dominated by the initial raiser, has better odds of winning the pot than that--especially if you play it aggressively when you hit, and force your opponent to fold before the river. For example, let's say you're holding 86 offsuit, and the initial raiser has a legit hand--AJs. Even in the worst case scenario, where his AJ is of the same suit as one of your hole cards, you are still only about a 2:1 preflop dog.

Your odds won't be nearly as good out of the SB, but that doesn't mean you should be folding all but premium hands, either. Against an aggressive opponent who opens from LP, you should still be playing many of the same hands you would have completed with if he had just limped. If you're holding a hand that figures to be better than many of the steal hands I mentioned above (a pocket pair, a medium ace, two suited broadway), you should even be thinking about 3-betting, so as not to give the BB great odds to call as well...protecting your hand. This is especially effective if your opponent will often just fold the flop unimproved when you make a continuation bet.

In addition to that, just understand your preflop equity advantage against the range of hands your opponents will limp with, and raise accordingly. If you're holding TT in the SB and there are 4 limpers, raise! You're going to get outflopped a lot, yes, but you do hold what is likely a significant preflop equity edge against those limping hands. If you've got KQs in the CO and there are two limpers to you, raise! Again, you likely hold an equity edge, and in this scenario you also have position against those limpers (and raising could force the button to fold a hand he would otherwise have played, buying you the button). If you've got AK in the BB and it's 5 limpers to you, raise! Every time you fail to put in a preflop raise when you're holding an equity advantage, you are giving your opponents money. Plain and simple.

These changes aren't going to be easy to implement, and you're probably going to experience some growing pains as you start working them into your game, but you do need to understand these things in order to maximize your own potential as a poker player...and in order to maximize your earn rate. Good luck! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
As for your aggression, I think, you're far too passive. I think you need to work to get that TOT postflop AF well over 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's including his preflop numbers in the Total Aggression Factor. That in mind, he has decent AF numbers...but could probably stand to raise it a bit, yes. PokerTracker defines any total number above 1.5 to be "aggressive" (i.e., good) when including preflop numbers.

[Joe Tall]

Egads, you are doomed.

[bungyrocks]

hey thanks! great post! All of what u said makes sense to me and its just a (simple!?!)matter of implementing those changes. Ill keep u posted.