Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday? - Page 6

sbj99 · #51 10-08-2006, 11:48 PM

I have to agree with your post. On the other hand< I have a hard time understanding the basis for that announcement coming out day 1 in the first place.

PairTheBoard · #52 10-09-2006, 12:13 AM

I missed the Trade Payable and Taxes Payable lines. So my idea that Trade and other Recievables might mean something is wrong since they are a wash as you point out.

The only factor you didn't mention is the amount they have earned since June 2006. So maybe with that they can cover the upcoming withdrawls. Still, it is unsettling to me that in June 2006 they did not appear to have the cash on hand to cover Player Accounts. That was not my understanding for how I thought they were suppose to be operating.

PairTheBoard

SuperUberBob · #53 10-09-2006, 12:21 AM

It's times like these that I am glad that poker isn't a significant source of income for me.

sbj99 · #54 10-09-2006, 12:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I missed the Trade Payable and Taxes Payable lines. So my idea that Trade and other Recievables might mean something is wrong since they are a wash as you point out.

The only factor you didn't mention is the amount they have earned since June 2006. So maybe with that they can cover the upcoming withdrawls. Still, it is unsettling to me that in June 2006 they did not appear to have the cash on hand to cover Player Accounts. That was not my understanding for how I thought they were suppose to be operating.

PairTheBoard

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I did miss the increase in cash that should be expected since the end of last quarter. Based on the rates of the first 6 months it would probably add about $100m (which would still leave them $100m short if my original post is at all accurate), but this might be offset with the idea that their operations might dry up overnight and still have a large chunk of the expenses. In other words they will need existing cash to survive the next few months.

This is tied to the idea that they don't currently have enough cash to cover 100% cashouts. Their business generates alot of cash (most of these companies do), so under normal circumstances they wouldn't need much cash at any given time. On the other hand, everyone was aware of the legislation risk.

I would still like some confirmation on that one item that I believe refers to customer deposits.

Asianj · #55 10-09-2006, 12:38 AM

You guys are missing nthe forest through the trees - eveything you are sayingis probably true and you are worried about a few thousand bucks in a pp account when you could be shorting the stock...duuuuuhhhh...and making a lot more

Michael C. · #56 10-09-2006, 12:39 AM

If Party only has $96 million cash on hand, where were they getting the money for the dividend in the first place? So they obviously have to have more money than that. Also, it's not necessarily the sign of a bad company if you don't have cash on hand to cover 80% of your customers. A well run company has cash on hand to cover the worst possible scenario, and has the ability to get more money if need be. And then they put the excess money to work. Ideally Party would have seperate accounts to cover deposits, like Stars claims to. But in any case, $96 million in cash does not add up for a company that just canceled a dividend that was going to give away more than that.

grandgnu · #57 10-09-2006, 12:45 AM

You people are morons if you think Party will "collapse" on Saturday. It's so obvious what will happen.

Dikshit is going to open up multiple accounts (he'll probably have some of their support staff help out with this) and he'll then play extra sit n' go's to negate his advantage.

It will be called the Friday The 13th Doomswitch Promotion (tm) and he'll win all the cash from every customer at each table with miracle 1/2-outers on the river.

Then he'll use all of our money to cover their mounting debts and purchase himself a new mansion.

That's how I'd do it anyway.

sbj99 · #58 10-09-2006, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If Party only has $96 million cash on hand, where were they getting the money for the dividend in the first place? So they obviously have to have more money than that. Also, it's not necessarily the sign of a bad company if you don't have cash on hand to cover 80% of your customers. A well run company has cash on hand to cover the worst possible scenario, and has the ability to get more money if need be. And then they put the excess money to work. Ideally Party would have seperate accounts to cover deposits, like Stars claims to. But in any case, $96 million in cash does not add up for a company that just canceled a dividend that was going to give away more than that.

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The idea of the dividend was simply related to the big cashflow. They have been generating so much cash there was no reason to keep it on the books. Other than the legislation risk obviously. But this explains why they paid a dividend. They generated $380m cash from operations in the first 6 months of the year.

The other part I wonder about is if they saw the risk of the lenders pulling out if legislation went through cutting them off from the US. I'm not saying they'll pull out but definitely some risk there, and at best unfavorable terms.

Tofu_boy · #59 10-09-2006, 12:51 AM

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Unfortunately, Party will probably not go under. It would be better if they did.

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That would be an absolute disaster for poker. If even a handful of people got burned by Party in the upcoming rush to cashout, it might spell the end of the average person trusting their money with an offshore gambling company.

For all our sakes, let's hope things go smoothly and we're all happily playing on Stars or wherever next week. [/quote

That's Correct!
just be ready and relax see what'll happen next week and made adjustment from there.

Tofu_boy · #60 10-09-2006, 12:53 AM

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I am not worried about PartyGaming collapsing. I am worried about the privately held sites that will continue to deal cards to Americans. What happens if they have executives arrested or their offices raided? At least we can look at the books of PartyGaming and get an idea of their financial health. Unfortunately, we have no clue what the financial health of the privately held sites are. Judging by the actions of the Department of Justice, I do not see them backing down anytime soon. In the end, the safest place to keep your money might end up being PartyGaming.

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Don't put all your BR in 1 poker site. That might help.