MyTurn's Week 7 CFB (10/10-10/15) - Page 2

MyTurn2Raise · #11 10-08-2006, 06:09 PM

oh...I picked Illinois v Indiana at -7

I pick the Illinois game every week, but I put in my writeup that I thought the game had very little value on betting either way. Even after watching, I'm in agreement with my pregame assessment.

MyTurn2Raise · #12 10-08-2006, 07:15 PM

Purdue -7 @ Northwestern good to 11.5
Arizona -3 @ Stanford upto 4.5
Florida +2 @ Auburn value until -0.5
Baylor/Texas u48.5 good to 47.5
Ohio/Illinois u45good to 42.5
Illinois -6.5 v Ohionot really good at all, but I always bet Illinois

Donk4Life · #13 10-08-2006, 07:46 PM

Auburn should be on a downward spiral while Fla. will definitely be up for the game. +2 means the linesmakers feel UF is a better team, but are factoring in Auburn's home field, which shouldn't look that impressive after the performance against the Hogs. I'm taking Florida myself. I laugh everytime I hear someone say they won't bet against their team because of some sort of loyalty. Loyalty only gets you so far. Gators kill Auburn this weekend and Auburn begins to face an identity crisis again. I hate to talk about my alma mater like this, but I've seen it happen before.

pirateboy · #14 10-08-2006, 08:19 PM

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Auburn should be on a downward spiral while Fla. will definitely be up for the game. +2 means the linesmakers feel UF is a better team, but are factoring in Auburn's home field, which shouldn't look that impressive after the performance against the Hogs. I'm taking Florida myself. I laugh everytime I hear someone say they won't bet against their team because of some sort of loyalty. Loyalty only gets you so far. Gators kill Auburn this weekend and Auburn begins to face an identity crisis again. I hate to talk about my alma mater like this, but I've seen it happen before.

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I'm absolutely not playing Aub/Fla because I don't think anyone of us (no offense guys) have any clue what will happen in this game.

Will Auburn come out pissed or down? The LSU game for Florida was deceiving. LSU made 1000000 mistakes that will never occur again. Florida played well enough to win, but more like 16-14 or something.

ksufan19 · #15 10-08-2006, 08:22 PM

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Auburn should be on a downward spiral while Fla. will definitely be up for the game. +2 means the linesmakers feel UF is a better team, but are factoring in Auburn's home field, which shouldn't look that impressive after the performance against the Hogs. I'm taking Florida myself. I laugh everytime I hear someone say they won't bet against their team because of some sort of loyalty. Loyalty only gets you so far. Gators kill Auburn this weekend and Auburn begins to face an identity crisis again. I hate to talk about my alma mater like this, but I've seen it happen before.

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I'm absolutely not playing Aub/Fla because I don't think anyone of us (no offense guys) have any clue what will happen in this game.

Will Auburn come out pissed or down? The LSU game for Florida was deceiving. LSU made 1000000 mistakes that will never occur again. Florida played well enough to win, but more like 16-14 or something.

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teams tend to let down following a bcs bubble burst game. loving florida ML here.

pirateboy · #16 10-08-2006, 08:23 PM

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Auburn should be on a downward spiral while Fla. will definitely be up for the game. +2 means the linesmakers feel UF is a better team, but are factoring in Auburn's home field, which shouldn't look that impressive after the performance against the Hogs. I'm taking Florida myself. I laugh everytime I hear someone say they won't bet against their team because of some sort of loyalty. Loyalty only gets you so far. Gators kill Auburn this weekend and Auburn begins to face an identity crisis again. I hate to talk about my alma mater like this, but I've seen it happen before.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm absolutely not playing Aub/Fla because I don't think anyone of us (no offense guys) have any clue what will happen in this game.

Will Auburn come out pissed or down? The LSU game for Florida was deceiving. LSU made 1000000 mistakes that will never occur again. Florida played well enough to win, but more like 16-14 or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

teams tend to let down following a bcs bubble burst game. loving florida ML here.

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I doubt its anything more than 50/50

MyTurn2Raise · #17 10-10-2006, 12:58 AM

Michigan/Penn State u41.5
good to 40.5

look at Penn State verse their real competiton:
@ Notre Dame: 17 points, 417 yards, 192 rushing (5.8 ypc), 225 passing, 3 turnovers
@ Ohio State: 6 points, 236 yards, 149 rushing (3.8 ypc), 87 passing, 3 turnovers
@ Minnesota: 28 points (21 in regulation), 450 yards, 169 rushing (4.2 ypc), 281 passing, 1 turnover

they are only averaging 15 points in regulation and over 2 turnovers verse the quality opponents. The Michigan 'D' is above and beyond quality. The Michigan 'D' is the number 1 rushing defense, despite facing Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State (all above average, bruising rush attacks). In addition, the Michigan D has the 25th best passing efficiency defense. Without being able to establish the run, Penn State will struggle to get its deep passing attack going. I give some credit to Galen Hall and co for finding ways to get the playmakers involved, but I just don't see the Nittany Lions scoring more than 17. I expect 13.

Now, the Michigan offense has been a beautiful story this year, but I expect the Wolverines to struggle mightily as well. For one, it looks like Manningham is out. Even if he plays, he won't be 100%. Penn State has two of the best corners in the country athletic wise. Manningham is used to just running by the less talented. Expect Penn State to get by with man coverage on the corners. This is very important as it allows the Nittany Lions to bring lots of players into the box to stop the rush attack. Penn State's rushing defense is 14th in the nation facing an average slew of rushing opponents. In addition, the Lions should be better than they started as they used a whole bunch of inexperienced d-linemen to start the season. Those guys should be tested by now having played in South Bend, Columbus, and Minneapolis. I expect the linebackers to make some big plays. Also, expect the Chad Henne of old to show up here and there. He still focuses too much on his primary and doesn't progress in his reads enough. Add in the fact that Breaston is still a no show and Manningham is dinged up leads me to think Michigan will put up between 17 and 21. I expect 20.

20-13 Michigan

MyTurn2Raise · #18 10-10-2006, 01:24 AM

Florida/Auburn u39 good to 37.5
Florida +2 @ Auburn value until -0.5

I'm on Florida +2 at -105, but not a strong play IMO

this is why:
#1!-the biggest thing is that Auburn will be one-dimensional on offense and that dimension will not be too good.

Auburn has lacked playmakers from the outside all year. Tuberville, usually a great coach IMO, has been unable to find ways for Cox to get the ball deep. I think it's because outside of Courtney Taylor, who is above average but standard for an SEC wideout, Auburn's receivers have given nothing. Florida's secondary shut down the LSU receiving corps (which is among the best in the nation). I expect them to have little trouble holding down Auburn from big plays. The only doubt is that Reggie Nelson might get himself ejected from one of these game and/or injured if he keeps going for head shots. I don't expect Cox to have much time to throw either as Marcus Taylor will tee off on an unexperienced back up Center. I've said it often, when a team becomes one dimensional, it's death.

Plus, I don't expect Auburn to do that much. Kenny Irons still doesn't look 100%. The back-ups are good but this isn't the days of Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown. In addition, the Tiger pass game this year has thrived off of play-action. Play-action typically fails to work if the run isn't established in the first place. I see 17 max for Auburn.

#2-Urban Meyer and co. continue to find ways to score against talented opponents. I'm still not sold on the Gator o-line or rushing attack, but Urban has been able to work it out somehow (PS...it pains me to write the last few sentences as I've always thought Urban Meyer was overrated). First, the Tebow single wing keeps working. Ironically, this reminds me of how I dominated the competition in NCAA football online for PS2 back in fall of 2003. I had an offensive set where I would bring Ronnie Brown into play QB with Auburn and used him, with Cadillac Williams, as Urban is using Tebow right now. It's one of four major offensive schemes I ran to perfection to be rated in the top100 in the system (this was quite a proud accomplishment for me considering the competition--I've never been the quickest gamer and had to use strategy over joystick handling). Right now, no one has cracked the scheme. Urban finally let Tebow throw and used the fake run, which reminded me of Randle El at Indiana, to perfection. Leak hasn't been turning the ball over. The Auburn line is probably still beat up by the way they were manhandled last week. Yes, this carries over...see the Navy effect in years past. No, Florida doesn't average 6'5" and 315 across the front like Arkansas, so the running will be tougher. However, it will be enough.

I expect the Gators to somehow get near 20 again.

I'm guessing 20-13 Gators

MyTurn2Raise · #19 10-10-2006, 01:45 AM

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POTW Mizzou -2 @ Texas A&M
playable to -5.5

4-2 POTW

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Mizzou remains the best unknown team in the country and I'm riding them again.

Mizzou offense verse A&M defense is a dream.
I'll repeat for the umpteenth time that watching Mizzou play offense is highly entertainint. They remind me of a cross between Drew Brees running the Boilermakers and Alex Smith at Utah. Chase Daniel is awesome, but it's much more than just him. Temple is very talented at RB and there are two gamebreakers at WR. Mizzou is balanced; 25th in rushing (179), 29th in passing (245), 15th total yards (424), 14th scoring (over 34 per game). Gary Pinkel has done a great job at scripting plays to both start the game and the 2nd half as they almost always come away with a score of some sort.

While A&M's defense doesn't look bad, those stats are highly inflated by playing Cream Puff University and St Mary's School for the Blind. Last week, A&M allowed the struggling Kansas offense to score 18 points, rush over 5.5 yards per carry, and only forced 1 turnover. Army put up 24 first downs, 24 points, and 5.4 yards per carry verse Texas A&M. Against Texas Tech, the Aggies allowed 31 points.

I expect Mizzou to put up 31 here.

On the other side of the ball, Mizzou's defense is another huge secret as everyone has been praising Chase Daniel and the offense for the Tigers success. Let's not forget that Mizzou is #10 in rushing defense (73 ypg), #26 in passing efficiency, #11 in total defense (255 yards), #8 in scoring defense (11.83 ppg). I understand that A&M is much improved on offense, but I don't see them making much headway here as their run attack runs into the Mizzou rush defense.

I see 17 for A&M.

In addition, though Kyle Field is a very tough place to play, I think Mizzou tested themselves under fire last week. They gave up 21 straight points to the Red Raiders to have their lead cut to 24-21 in Lubbock. Mizzou responded under fire and scored the last 14 points.

Mizzou 31-17

Mizzou's magical season continues

MyTurn2Raise · #20 10-10-2006, 04:32 PM

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California/Washington St o52.5

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Cal's offense has scored 40+ in 5 straight games.
Washington St's defense is average (#53 overall).

Washington St's offense is average, but scoring 26 points per game. The Bears defense is suspect (ranked #91) and susceptible to both the run and pass.

classic Pac10 shootout