Corrales/Casamayor Oct 7th Showtime

[Tuds75]

Diego Corrales vs Joel Casamayor: WBC Lightweight Title
Diego Corrales -191
Joel Casamayor +178

Total Rounds
Over 10.5 rounds -156
Under 10.5 rounds +146

I think betting Chico Corrales here is one of the best boxing bets in a while. This is 3rd meeting between the 2 and they split the previous fights. Casamayor (Casa from here on out) out the first when the doctor called to the fight to be stopped because Chico had some serious cuts in and around his mouth. At that point Chico was getting hit, but was giving as good as he was getting it. Both fighters had been down in that fight and in the 4th I think both fighters actually touched the canvas. Casa was quick to counter with straight lefts (he is a southpaw) and that is what did the damage to Chico. He seemed to be content with taking one to land one, and in some cases taking 2 to one. This was a poor strategy for Chico and it cost him the fight.

The 2nd fight between the two was different, but still very similar. Chico jabbed more and didn't look for the KO and worked more on his punch out put to win the fight, but he did get tagged with some lefts from Casa and even went down again in round 10 with another straight left. Chico was able to get up from the Knockdown and finish the fight strong and win a Spilt Dec. It really shouldn't have been a spilt, but this is boxing.

So what are the biggest diffences from the first fight to the second and now to this fight Saturday's fight? Well the biggest factor is the previous 2 fights were at 130 and the 3rd fight is at 135. This favor the bigger man Chico who is about 6 feet tall and can carry more weight and not to mention he is the bigger puncher of the two. At his previous 3 fights at 135 have all been stopped before the final bell. He KO'ed Popo Frietas in 10 and then KO'ed Jose Luis Castillo, something Floyd Mayweather couldn't do in 2 fights and then the rematch he was KO'ed by Castillo, but we can throw that fight out because Castillo was over the weight limit. Lets not forget that Chico is the top dog at 135 pounds and has proved it by beating (and KOing) Castillo and Popo the 2 top dogs at 135. In Casa's 5 fights at 135, he is 3-1-1 and his draw should have been a lose to Kid Diamond (Diamond controlled the entire fight). The other big factor in this fight is Dan Goosen. In the first fight between the 2 Goosen was in Casa's corner and Casa was victorious, in the rematch Goosen was in Chico's corner and look who was victorious. For the rubber match Goosen will again be in Chico's corner. He knows what Casa has, knows his tendacities and how to beat him. I think Dan Goosen is on of the best trainers in boxing today at putting together a gameplan and also instructing his fighter throughout the fight. He will have a plan for Chico to take Casa apart and if Casa is able to surprise Chico and Goosen enough that they have to change thier gameplan, expect Goosen to have to be able to figure out how to beat his older fighter.

Casa's major damage to Chico has come from the left hand. Left hooks and straight lefts are what did ALL the damage to Chico in both fights. Casa LOVES LOVES to throw the left. He only uses his right to set up his left. Chico has to neutralize Casa's left if he wants to win. I know this, Chico knows this, and you can believe Dan Goosen knows this. I see Goosen preparing Chico for the perfect gameplan to keep Chico from getting hit by the left. Chico will jab a lot to keep Casa away from him (something he did well in the second fight). Chico's nature to mix it up and no matter how much Goosen conditioned him to jab and stay away Chico will mix it up at times with Casa and this is where Casa's best chance at winning the fight is. Chico and Casa will exchange power punches with most likely Chico hurting Casa, but with the chance Casa gets a quick shot in there on the money and puts Chico down. Chico can be knockedown, but rarely gets KO'ed. Evident by getting knocked down 5 times against Mayweather, 2 times in a single round against Castillo. I also see Chico's power being on full display and when his power shots land they will hurt Casa more then Casa will be able to hurt Chico. Once Chico gets in control of the fight I see Casa getting desperate and looking for a KO and this will play right into the hands of Chico who will be able to look for the shot or shots that will finish Casa. I see this fight being a ref stoppage in the 8-10th rounds most likely after a couple knockdowns of Casa in the same round.

I Chico is VERY undervalued at anything less then -250, so below -200 is a steal. I also like the UNDER at +145. Chico's at 135 is also greatly understimated here. Also a clash of heads is a big possiblilty and could send the fight to the cards prematurly, which also adds value to the under. Chico by KO at better then 2-1 is also a nice bet.

Oh did I forget to mention too that this is Chico's first fight since Castillo couldn't make weigth in June. Chico has been stewing since then looking/wanting to fight someone and I see him taking his anger towards Castillo out on a person he genuinly doesn't like in Joel Casamayor. This might be the best we have ever seen Chico.

Enjoy the Fight

Tuds

[Tuds75]

Update:

Corrales pulls a Jose Luis Castillo and doesn't make weight. Chico was actually 4 pounds over the limit after the second and final weigh-in. Casamayor comes in at 135. Chico must forefit his belts and they agreed on a catch weight of 147 for the fight.

Tuds

[llabb]

Great write-up as usual, Tuds. Why do you think the line has come down to -169?

Is Corrales not making weight indicative of him not being in quite as good shape or something? I had thought the edge goes to the fighter who doesn't make weight, since he is bigger and stronger, but the line move confuses me (not good at capping boxing myself).

[Tuds75]

The effect of Chico's odds are becaues I think he overtrained to lose the weight and looks the beat man because he couldn't make weight and this is even before the fight has started.

Read this quote from Chico about not making weight:

'"I pretty much killed myself to be here at this fight." Corrales' trainer Joe Goossen added, "Monday was his last meal and it was a little bit of tuna and small salad. He’s been sucking on ice chips since."'

4 days without a real meal is a long time especially when you are competiting in boxing.

Look at these pics of Chico at the weigh-in.




Those shots alone don't get me real confident in Chico.

Tuds

[llabb]

So are you laying off Chico at all, or letting your wagers stand? Looks like this might be good for the Under, with one fighter already worn down.