400NL facing river allin

[bunky9590]

reads/scenarios.

Villain has been picking spots to raise my continuation bets and has caught me with not much, I know hes raising me light because 1 hand i c bet with middle pair best kicker he minraises me, guy behind him pushes for about pot sized raise all in I flod as does villian. So its pretty clear he's targeting me. I haven't had any goods to stand up with yet but I have had to slow down on my continuation bets, he's floating my raises with a wide variety of hands. he's playing what seems to be 66% of pots. Villains effective stack 340 I cover.

2 limpers to me I limp along in the CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] villain limps along, blinds call. 6 handed to the flop.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(pot $24.00)

Blinds check middle position bets $12.00 and he's deep and dumb folded to me and I have position on him if villain cooperates I can take the pot away from him on a scary board on the turn. I call, villain calls. Blinds exit. 3 to the turn.

Turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
(pot $60)
Checked to me, seems as if the flop bettor was just donking around after all with some variety of Queen, and now I made two pair. A bet is most certainly in order question is how much, villain is probably not sitting on an ace (his MO is to raise that flop in position with the ace) hes lieky drawing, or his ace could be really bad. He could have some inside straight draw garbage but he could,'e isolate me on the flop because of the original bettor. I'm leaning toward a 1/2 pot bet and give him 3:1 on his decision. I bet $30.00 villain calls quickly and original flop bettor folds.

River 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Pot $120.00

Alright total brick. Everyhting to this point lets me believe I have the best hand, he's shown no strength and hes done nothing but call. I'd really like to get some vlaue out of this two pair, I know its a medium strength hand but the villain has made some weak calls on the river against other players. I decide to throw out what is a value/blocking bet on the river of $20.00. Gives him 7:1 on a call. He'll call with some pretty disgusting cards there.

Villain raises all in for $280.00 more.

Thoughts? Results later.

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm leaning toward a 1/2 pot bet and give him 3:1 on his decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's such a good idea

[SuperPokerJedi]

Looks like a higher 2 pair, though I could be wrong!

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm leaning toward a 1/2 pot bet and give him 3:1 on his decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's such a good idea

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't want to give this guy a free look at the river card, and I don't want to bet the full pot, 1/2 pot sure looked right to me. Care to expand on your answer without seeing what happened on the river?

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a higher 2 pair, though I could be wrong!

[/ QUOTE ]

Well thats definitely one possibility. I'll post my complete thought process and anaylsis tonight. Tricky hand.

[Lewkiz]

I dont like the half pott B against a possible draw on the turn. Because if you are prepared to call another $30 on the river if the flush hits then you are laying him the correct odds to call. Therefore I much more prefer to bet around 75% of the pott.

I dont like this small kind of value bet, its very easy for the opponent to try a bluff. I rather bet around 1/3 of the pott if I think the opponent is semi-weak. (Usually if he is prepered to call 1/5 of the pott he will also call a 1/3 the pott but its much harder for him to go over the top without commiting his whole stack).

Against this kind of opponent that is playing back against me alot I would be really carefully to bet small on the river which can easily induce a bluff. I rather check or put in a normal bet around 50%-80% of the pott.

I would fold this river in this situation. If he is prepered to do this kind of bluff let him have it this time. Because if he throws this kinds of bluffs you will get his money just by waiting on a better situation.

[jo3olous]

shouldve potted the turn and taken the pot there. since you value betted. Either check that river or show your strength and pot the river. Don't induce a bluff.... If you potted the river and he can still come over the top, then he's good. But he came over the top of a 30.00 bet, that's a tough decisions btw bluff/monster

[DrPublo]

Really looks like you put yourself in this situation with your ultra-strange river bet. I think from his perspective, it could easily look like you were betting to price yourself into a draw that didn't hit. Then again, if he thinks that, he can just call with Ax here and win. So he either has nothing and is trying to get you to lay down, or a monster (A3 would be [censored] but whattaya gonna do...bet the turn bigger I guess).

In this spot I probably call 65% and fold the rest, only because
1. his action doesn't make any sense, which typically leans me toward a call,
2. i dont think any monsters would push the river that big. It's not like you have shown a ton of strength, so he can't be sure you'll stack off with a big-but-2nd-best hand.

The Doc

PS Long time no see Bunky! Whats new?

[Zag]

Well, you did everything you could to induce a bluff from a player who you say is coming after you a lot. Now that you have induced the bet, you're worried that it isn't a bluff. Now that you've put him into a bluffing position, and you know he bluffs a lot, you have to call. It's a good strategy, to put people who bluff too much into what looks like a good place to bluff -- but then you can't afford to chicken out at the end.

Sure, even bluffers get hands, sometimes. Maybe he has As 4s and just picked up a better two-pair when he was hoping for his draw. But probably not. So I am not saying that I think you necessarily won this one -- I'm saying that you win more than the 40% you need to be winning in order to make this call worth it.

[Yads]

His hand does not make any sense. Looks to me like a draw that missed. Besides you've looked very weak so far. I call here.