Properly Quantifying Backdoor Outs

[SixForty]

Something that HoneyBadger mentioned in a post recently got me thinking more about this topic. How much do we value a backdoor flush draw or backdoor straight draw?

If we do the math, a back door flush draw is the equivalent of 0.978 outs. That is, a backdoor flush will come in by the river with the same frequency as a hand that has 0.978 outs. This can be effectively rounded up to 1 out just to make life easier.

However, most common literature (at least, the things that I have read, which I admit, may not be much!) says that you can actually value a backdoor flush at 1.5 outs. The reasoning given is that you aren't commited to see the river if you don't catch a four flush on the turn. So you won't always be chasing it to the river.

This makes perfect sense, and I've always given my backdoor flush draws the equivalent of 1.5 outs. Unless it's a very low flush, against lots of opponents, and there's a chance I can lose to a higher flush. But still, for the most part, I use that 1.5 outs number.

But what HoneyBadger said in this thread here got me thinking.

If I have a hand that I'm planning on seeing the river with anyway, then I can't really add that extra half an out? I should only be valuing my backdoor flush as 1 out, correct? Because I can't claim that I'll fold the turn when I don't pick up a four flush?

For example, let's say I have an open-ended straight draw with a backdoor flush draw in a four-way pot that was raised preflop. The pot is big enough that I'm going to see the river with my straight draw alone, so I can't really count my backdoor flush draw as more that one out.

But if I have a gutshot straight draw with a backdoor flush draw, I can consider the flush draw as 1.5 outs, since I'm often peeling on the flop but folding on the turn unimproved.

So if I have a hand that commits me to see the river otherwise, a backdoor flush draw only adds 1 out? But if I have a hand that I may call to see the turn, but can still fold there unimproved, a backdoor flush draw can add 1.5 outs?

Does that make sense?

[Xhad]

Generally if a BDFD makes any difference in your decision-making process, it's generally because you're peeling with a hand that would otherwise fold...and because you're barely getting odds to even peel to the turn. In other words if you've got a draw strong enough to go to the river that includes a BDFD, why does the BDFD even matter? You already know you're going to call.

[SixForty]

[ QUOTE ]
Generally if a BDFD makes any difference in your decision-making process, it's generally because you're peeling with a hand that would otherwise fold...and because you're barely getting odds to even peel to the turn. In other words if you've got a draw strong enough to go to the river that includes a BDFD, why does the BDFD even matter? You already know you're going to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having a BDFD and BDSD could mean the difference between calling and raising the flop, depending on how many opponents are in.

[flair1239]

SSH explained this really well. Basically the odds on a backdoor straight or flush are fairly close to those of spiking a set on the turn. SSH explains the math.

But like all "outs" you have to adjust for things like the texture of the flop, whether the draw is to the nuts or not, likelyhood of drawing dead...etc.

You don't have to be extremely precise, I mean 1 to 1.5 it will rarely make a huge difference.

Although like a previous poster stated, having backdoor draws can make raising more attractive. Especially when you think you can get a freecard out of the deal.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Having a BDFD and BDSD could mean the difference between calling and raising the flop, depending on how many opponents are in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, but I really can't conceive of a situation where you would have a consecutive BDSD and a 3flush and a made hand all at the same time without some of your outs being tainted (i.e. if you have a pair to go with both of these things, then you're probably drawing to a 1card straight and may end up chopping or losing if you hit your straight in a multiway pot).

[Harv72b]

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I see your point, but I really can't conceive of a situation where you would have a consecutive BDSD and a 3flush and a made hand all at the same time without some of your outs being tainted.

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Hero raises with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] behind 3 limpers on the button. Both blinds & all limpers call, the flop comes down A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Checked to MP3 who leads into us.

[HoneyBadger]

I'll try to look up exactly what was said about this in the book. I can't remember, I only remember they said "some authors like to count a BDFD as 2 outs, but that's just wrong. It's 1 out, no more, no less" So I've always counted it as 1... I'll have to look it up.

[Ricks]

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I can't remember, I only remember they said "some authors like to count a BDFD as 2 outs, but that's just wrong. It's 1 out, no more, no less"

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This sounds like "Hold 'em on the Come".