basbeall playoffs/opinions - Page 3

Homer · #21 10-02-2006, 01:52 AM

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I honestly believed that the Yanks would be somewhere around -400 to win the series. The whole +278 has value because of blah, blah, blah doesn't really mean a whole lot here. Could someone explain to me how the Tigers even have a chance? They choked against the Royals, the GD ROYALS (who I have to give credit for)!!

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For -400 to be a neutral EV bet, the Yankees would have to be a -206 favorite (on average) in each game of the series. Yet, they are only -201, at home, in game 1, with Wang pitching. Something doesn't mesh here.

Mr. 33 · #22 10-02-2006, 07:41 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
I honestly believed that the Yanks would be somewhere around -400 to win the series. The whole +278 has value because of blah, blah, blah doesn't really mean a whole lot here. Could someone explain to me how the Tigers even have a chance? They choked against the Royals, the GD ROYALS (who I have to give credit for)!!

[/ QUOTE ]

For -400 to be a neutral EV bet, the Yankees would have to be a -206 favorite (on average) in each game of the series. Yet, they are only -201, at home, in game 1, with Wang pitching. Something doesn't mesh here.

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I believe you, but could someone show me the math here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Mine's all messed up

wiper · #23 10-02-2006, 07:47 PM

i'm thinking i might bet the mets (+535) and the padres (+850) to win the world series...the way i figure, at least one of them, if not both, will be playing for the NL title, and then 1 of them will be an underdog in the series, which i can lay off on the AL winner if need be...

Homer · #24 10-02-2006, 07:48 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I honestly believed that the Yanks would be somewhere around -400 to win the series. The whole +278 has value because of blah, blah, blah doesn't really mean a whole lot here. Could someone explain to me how the Tigers even have a chance? They choked against the Royals, the GD ROYALS (who I have to give credit for)!!

[/ QUOTE ]

For -400 to be a neutral EV bet, the Yankees would have to be a -206 favorite (on average) in each game of the series. Yet, they are only -201, at home, in game 1, with Wang pitching. Something doesn't mesh here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe you, but could someone show me the math here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Mine's all messed up

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I used Excel with the binomdist function. =1-binomdist(2,5,x,TRUE) tells you their likelihood of winning 3 or more games out of 5 (in other words, winning the series), where x is the probability of winning each individual game. I used the solver tool to find what value of x would make it equal 0.80 (which is the breakeven percentage for a line of -400). x turns out to be .673. This converts to a line of -206.

Mr. 33 · #25 10-02-2006, 07:53 PM

Thanks alot!

lastchance · #26 10-02-2006, 11:19 PM

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Interesting series price moves on Pinny (last one current):
NY (-300, -308, -310, -322)
Twins (-169, -167, -165, -169)
Padres (-151, -152, -165, -157)
Mets (-154, -162, -157, -145)

The Cards sure look like they will be getting a good value

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Tigers +292 AND RISING! Wake up in the morning and bet this!

scorer · #27 10-02-2006, 11:25 PM

Homer, just learned something on that math, thanks

lastchance · #28 10-03-2006, 03:56 AM

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Interesting series price moves on Pinny (last one current):
NY (-300, -308, -310, -322, -325)
Twins (-169, -167, -165, -169, -169)
Padres (-151, -152, -165, -157, -157)
Mets (-154, -162, -157, -145, -146)

The Cards sure look like they will be getting a good value

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Tigers +292 AND RISING! Wake up in the morning and bet this!

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+295 now. Maybe we shouldn't bet on the Tigers. After all, the Yankees have ***MYSTIQUE AND AURA*** TM.

Ortho · #29 10-03-2006, 07:52 AM

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I used Excel with the binomdist function. =1-binomdist(2,5,x,TRUE) tells you their likelihood of winning 3 or more games out of 5 (in other words, winning the series), where x is the probability of winning each individual game. I used the solver tool to find what value of x would make it equal 0.80 (which is the breakeven percentage for a line of -400). x turns out to be .673. This converts to a line of -206.

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Is =1-binomdist(3,7,x,TRUE) the correct way to solve for a 7 game series?

almostbusto · #30 10-03-2006, 11:17 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
I used Excel with the binomdist function. =1-binomdist(2,5,x,TRUE) tells you their likelihood of winning 3 or more games out of 5 (in other words, winning the series), where x is the probability of winning each individual game. I used the solver tool to find what value of x would make it equal 0.80 (which is the breakeven percentage for a line of -400). x turns out to be .673. This converts to a line of -206.

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Is =1-binomdist(3,7,x,TRUE) the correct way to solve for a 7 game series?

[/ QUOTE ]yes