#21
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
I honestly believed that the Yanks would be somewhere around -400 to win the series. The whole +278 has value because of blah, blah, blah doesn't really mean a whole lot here. Could someone explain to me how the Tigers even have a chance? They choked against the Royals, the GD ROYALS (who I have to give credit for)!! [/ QUOTE ] For -400 to be a neutral EV bet, the Yankees would have to be a -206 favorite (on average) in each game of the series. Yet, they are only -201, at home, in game 1, with Wang pitching. Something doesn't mesh here. |
#22
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I honestly believed that the Yanks would be somewhere around -400 to win the series. The whole +278 has value because of blah, blah, blah doesn't really mean a whole lot here. Could someone explain to me how the Tigers even have a chance? They choked against the Royals, the GD ROYALS (who I have to give credit for)!! [/ QUOTE ] For -400 to be a neutral EV bet, the Yankees would have to be a -206 favorite (on average) in each game of the series. Yet, they are only -201, at home, in game 1, with Wang pitching. Something doesn't mesh here. [/ QUOTE ] I believe you, but could someone show me the math here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Mine's all messed up |
#23
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
i'm thinking i might bet the mets (+535) and the padres (+850) to win the world series...the way i figure, at least one of them, if not both, will be playing for the NL title, and then 1 of them will be an underdog in the series, which i can lay off on the AL winner if need be...
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#24
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I honestly believed that the Yanks would be somewhere around -400 to win the series. The whole +278 has value because of blah, blah, blah doesn't really mean a whole lot here. Could someone explain to me how the Tigers even have a chance? They choked against the Royals, the GD ROYALS (who I have to give credit for)!! [/ QUOTE ] For -400 to be a neutral EV bet, the Yankees would have to be a -206 favorite (on average) in each game of the series. Yet, they are only -201, at home, in game 1, with Wang pitching. Something doesn't mesh here. [/ QUOTE ] I believe you, but could someone show me the math here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Mine's all messed up [/ QUOTE ] I used Excel with the binomdist function. =1-binomdist(2,5,x,TRUE) tells you their likelihood of winning 3 or more games out of 5 (in other words, winning the series), where x is the probability of winning each individual game. I used the solver tool to find what value of x would make it equal 0.80 (which is the breakeven percentage for a line of -400). x turns out to be .673. This converts to a line of -206. |
#25
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
Thanks alot!
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#26
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting series price moves on Pinny (last one current): NY (-300, -308, -310, -322) Twins (-169, -167, -165, -169) Padres (-151, -152, -165, -157) Mets (-154, -162, -157, -145) The Cards sure look like they will be getting a good value [/ QUOTE ] Tigers +292 AND RISING! Wake up in the morning and bet this! |
#27
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
Homer, just learned something on that math, thanks
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#28
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Interesting series price moves on Pinny (last one current): NY (-300, -308, -310, -322, -325) Twins (-169, -167, -165, -169, -169) Padres (-151, -152, -165, -157, -157) Mets (-154, -162, -157, -145, -146) The Cards sure look like they will be getting a good value [/ QUOTE ] Tigers +292 AND RISING! Wake up in the morning and bet this! [/ QUOTE ] +295 now. Maybe we shouldn't bet on the Tigers. After all, the Yankees have ***MYSTIQUE AND AURA*** TM. |
#29
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
I used Excel with the binomdist function. =1-binomdist(2,5,x,TRUE) tells you their likelihood of winning 3 or more games out of 5 (in other words, winning the series), where x is the probability of winning each individual game. I used the solver tool to find what value of x would make it equal 0.80 (which is the breakeven percentage for a line of -400). x turns out to be .673. This converts to a line of -206. [/ QUOTE ] Is =1-binomdist(3,7,x,TRUE) the correct way to solve for a 7 game series? |
#30
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Re: basbeall playoffs/opinions
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I used Excel with the binomdist function. =1-binomdist(2,5,x,TRUE) tells you their likelihood of winning 3 or more games out of 5 (in other words, winning the series), where x is the probability of winning each individual game. I used the solver tool to find what value of x would make it equal 0.80 (which is the breakeven percentage for a line of -400). x turns out to be .673. This converts to a line of -206. [/ QUOTE ] Is =1-binomdist(3,7,x,TRUE) the correct way to solve for a 7 game series? [/ QUOTE ]yes |
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