Don's soccer picks 10-2

donfrap · #1 10-01-2006, 08:09 PM

I have been working on handicapping soccer for awhile now, and I finally think that I have had decent enough results to post here. I will not include writeups or anything, just selections. I know this is frowned upon, so if someone wants a write up for a certain game I will try to post one ASAP here in the forum. I handicap the games myself, then go to several internet forums and see what other people have to say. If what I'm looking at and what they are looking at jibe, then I go with the pick. I've done pretty well the past month doing this. I take only asian handicaps and bet only at Pinny. I'll post an overall record and a record for each league (in soccer, certain leagues are much more volatile than others.) Good luck to all, and if my picks start sucking.. feel free to fade!! I will also post single picks as I get more outside thoughts on games closer to kickoff.

MONDAY OCTOBER 2 PICKS

OVERALL RECORD (0-0-0) +0.00

Czech Gambrinius Liga (0-0-0) +0.00

Slovan Liberec -1.25 (-117) 1u

English Premier League (0-0-0) +0.00

Watford pk (-126) 1u

French Ligue 2 (0-0-0) +0.00

Amiens pk (-122) 2u

Norway Tippeligaen (0-0-0) +0.00

Brann -1.25 (+101) 1u (A note on this game.. This would normally be a huge 5 unit play for me, but some key Brann players are suspended. However, their opposition is bad enough where I believe it still merits a small play.)

Russia Vyshaya Liga (0-0-0) +0.00

Torpedo Moscow -.25 (-133)
Torp Moscow/Luch Energiya U2.25 (-118)

20Five · #2 10-01-2006, 11:50 PM

love the soccer picks, good luck to you will be following your progress!

-20five

donfrap · #3 10-02-2006, 12:03 AM

thx, i hope it goes well, I would like to contribute something to the forum as i have been riding the coattails of a few posters in the forum for CFB and NFL!

Mr. 33 · #4 10-02-2006, 12:07 AM

This might sound stupid, but what is the .25 line, as in Torpedo Moscow -.25?? Never seen it before as I never bet soccer, except for the World Cup.

TheRover · #5 10-02-2006, 12:20 AM

it's the same as pk, -.5 i believe

donfrap · #6 10-02-2006, 09:27 AM

yeah it is the same as pk,-.5. So, if Torpedo wins by 1 or more, I win the entire bet. If they draw, I get half of my bet back. If they lose, then I get nothing.

donfrap · #7 10-02-2006, 09:58 AM

Some of the lines have moved significantly at Pinny:

EPL

Watford is now -.25 (+105) I believe there is about a 35 percent chance of a draw in this game, so I think all value has been lost on this bet now.

Russia Vyshaya Liga

Torpedo Moscow is now -.5 (+114) Still merits a play I believe, as Torpedo should win this straight up at home. Just don't have the consolation prize of getting half the bet back if there is a draw. Luch-Energiya are a notoriously bad road team, I think they win about 10 percent of the time and draw about 25 percent in this matchup, with a +114 line, still looks like a good bet.

livin_a_lie · #8 10-02-2006, 11:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Watford is now -.25 (+105)

[/ QUOTE ]

Just made this bet at bodog at +135.

donfrap · #9 10-02-2006, 11:59 AM

good luck to us then!

donfrap · #10 10-02-2006, 12:07 PM

adding a pick:

Germany Bundesliga II (0-0-0) +0.00

Duisburg (+.25) -109 1u

I usually dislike taking road dogs in soccer. Also, no away team in all of Germany won this weekend. Still Duisburg is recently demoted from first division and is a better team and in better form than Hansa Rostock.

Also if anyone is on the Russian game, its 1-1 with 10 minutes to go. Without the penalty kick we would be almost assured of a double win! unfortunately, the best we can do now is about break even.