basbeall playoffs/opinions

scorer · #1 10-01-2006, 06:38 PM

Yanks vs Detroit. Ill take a guess here and say yanks will be in the series a favorite of -225. Game one i would need the starters but expect in each home game the yanks to be -190 and above. Twins should be about the same prices in there matchup vs the A's.

Homer · #2 10-01-2006, 06:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yanks vs Detroit. Ill take a guess here and say yanks will be in the series a favorite of -225. Game one i would need the starters but expect in each home game the yanks to be -190 and above. Twins should be about the same prices in there matchup vs the A's.

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I think it will be closer to -300 or so, just based on the "Will the Yankees win the AL" line at Pin.

EDIT - BTW, the No side of the bet is insanely +EV at -108 (or so I would assume). I'm sure someone here has an estimate on % of time they make the WS.

Thremp · #3 10-01-2006, 06:41 PM

Check Pinny. Lines are up.

Yankees make it 37% of the time. Probably higher than that now. Maybe ~40%.

Homer · #4 10-01-2006, 06:48 PM

Here's another opinion -- bet Tigers +272 vs Yankees. In a 5-game series, I can't believe the Tigers are getting a price like this.

scorer · #5 10-01-2006, 07:32 PM

Homer, this has the earmarks of easy sweep. Heck detroit looked dismall the last month or so.

iggymcfly · #6 10-01-2006, 07:34 PM

Just got on the Tigers and Cardinals for 3 units each. I don't bet a lot of baseball, but I like to watch the playoffs with something significant on the line, and I rode the White Sox all the way through the postseason last year and gave myself the mistaken notion that I konw something about playoff baseball.

Anyway, the Yankees are clearly the best team in baseball, but I doubt they win a 5-game series with Detroit more than 65% of the time tops, and I'd estimate that it's closer to 60%. St. Louis doesn't have enough depth to be as good as San Diego during the regular season, but with Carpenter going twice, I think they win the series 50% of the time and like the value a lot at +148.

noddyholder · #7 10-01-2006, 10:52 PM

Which underdog has the best chance of winning in the first round?

crockpot · #8 10-01-2006, 11:32 PM

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chicago looked dismall the last month or so.

-everyone, october 1, 2005

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Mr. 33 · #9 10-01-2006, 11:35 PM

Oakland has to have the best chance. Since they are on the west coast, they are pretty underrated. They have better pitching than Minnesota as a whole, which counts for the most during the playoffs. If they can steal one of Santana's games, it's over. Good price at +157

Mr. 33 · #10 10-01-2006, 11:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chicago looked dismall the last month or so.

-everyone, october 1, 2005

[/ QUOTE ]

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Sorry, but being from Michigan and watching a whole helluvalot of Tigers' games, they have ZERO chance of beating the Yankees. They don't have the clutch hitting, or more precisely that one huge bat in the lineup. The Yankees lineup is an all-star team. The Tigers' late season collapse cannot be great for their mental state either. They might win one in Detroit, but that's it.