4 Possible Outcomes

fanmail · #1 10-01-2006, 11:46 AM

Do not read into this as truth please. I just base this information on what I have read over the past few weeks/months on here and elsewhere. Just my humble opinion on some likely scenarios.

1) Status Quo - Law passed, not strictly enforced by banks, sites keep US players. Or some part of the legislation is repealed keeping poker as we know it going. (10% likelihood)

2) Bank Compliance - Banks do not allow deposit transactions to certain sites, e-wallets, etc. Sites want to keep US player income, so a new method/s are introduced. Some of the American player base is reduced, but games go on for US players. (45%)

3) Compliance - Not only are deposits stopped by banks, but the sites do not allow the deposits either. Those with money onine can continue to play. However, when players go busto or withdrawal their funds, gametime is over. This will cause a huge decline in US player base and online fish over a pretty short time span. Games will go on, but will be much worse. (30%)

4) US online play ends - Everything in scenario 3 + sites decide that it is in their best interest to cut ties with American players. They pursue Europe/Asia moreso. US players can withdraw funds, but online poker is dunzo for them. (15%)

fanmail · #2 10-01-2006, 05:47 PM

Almost everything is speculation at this point, I know. But do you guys think my assessment is that far off base?

Nate tha\\\' Great · #3 10-01-2006, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Almost everything is speculation at this point, I know. But do you guys think my assessment is that far off base?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have the scenarios more or less right but I don't know about the probabilities you've assigned to them. Actually, I think that both outcome #1 (everything's fine) and outcome #4 (nuclear Armageddon) are more likely than you're making them out to be. I'm not necessarily convinced that we're going to wind up in the middle ground somewhere.

suzzer99 · #4 10-01-2006, 06:06 PM

My guess is nuclear armeggeddon will be quickly followed by plenty of US owned, operated and TAXED online poker sites. There may be a painful period where little is available though.

PoBoy321 · #5 10-01-2006, 06:30 PM

suzz,

I think this is the most likely scenario. Once foreign sites which cannot be taxed are removed from the American markets, there will be a STRONG push by the gaming lobby to allow domestic gambling sites which will be able to tax income from gambling.

JOHNY CA$H · #6 10-01-2006, 06:47 PM

I think 1 is more likely that 4.

Jeffage · #7 10-01-2006, 06:49 PM

GL with that. I think the only way their lobby would have any chance of succeeding would be if it's shown that the new legislation can't stop Americans from accessing the sites. Then they'll say, look we can't prohibit it. Let's regulate it - US customers will come to the US run sites. Just a theory...but if they literally shut off access to foreign gaming sites soon, the US casino lobby wouldn't have many legs to stand on.

Jeff

winky51 · #8 10-01-2006, 06:55 PM

Owned by our wonderful local casino owners. Where the vig is high and the software crappy. Ok call me a pessimist.

XxGeneralxX · #9 10-01-2006, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Owned by our wonderful local casino owners. Where the vig is high and the software crappy. Ok call me a pessimist.

[/ QUOTE ]

i call you a realist

hypopg · #10 10-01-2006, 07:27 PM

I think scenario 4 is most likely. Poker executives are very afraid of the DOJ. I think online poker will re-emerge regulated and taxed in the next several years. I think they will redirect their energies elsewhere.....mainly Asia.
BTW Bill Frist is a flaming [censored].