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#1
09-30-2006, 09:36 AM
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why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
there's still a couple grand in bids from 88 to 93. how is this already not a done deal? is there still really a chance this will not pass somehow?
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#2
09-30-2006, 09:38 AM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
Already passed. This was commented on last night. No reason why it's not closed out.
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#3
09-30-2006, 09:42 AM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
[ QUOTE ]
Already passed. This was commented on last night. No reason why it's not closed out. [/ QUOTE ] well there's a couple grand that's yours for the taking if you're that confident.
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#4
09-30-2006, 09:43 AM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
The problem of course is that you have to wonder if it's a trick of some kind.
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#5
09-30-2006, 09:58 AM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
[ QUOTE ]
The problem of course is that you have to wonder if it's a trick of some kind. [/ QUOTE ] The contract won't expire until the President signs it. Just this morning there have been more and more being added in the 88-90 range (someone risking $1500). It is very strange. I wonder what the thinking behind this is? Seems silly huh [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#6
09-30-2006, 05:37 PM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The problem of course is that you have to wonder if it's a trick of some kind. [/ QUOTE ] The contract won't expire until the President signs it. Just this morning there have been more and more being added in the 88-90 range (someone risking $1500). It is very strange. I wonder what the thinking behind this is? Seems silly huh [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] yeah, very strange, b/c my understanding was that it was 100% that the president signs this bill. it's higher now, but there are is still around a grand at 95%.
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#7
09-30-2006, 05:55 PM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
Last night ( or rather very early this morning )the TS contract went to zero with the message, " session closed", then right before my eyes, it opened back up.
I'm wondering if the language in the TS contract regarding the bill is different than the bill that passed, so that there might be some confusion as to whether this bill meets the criteria of the TS contract. At least that is all I can think of.
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#8
09-30-2006, 11:35 PM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
FYI - The Tradesports contracts are, confusingly, not posted in US dollar units. The units are 1/10th USD. If you buy a contract at 95, it'll cost you $9.50.
So if you pick up the 500 available shorts at 95, you stand to make $250. Including that bid to sell 500 at 95, there's currently a total of $363 (profit) of shorts available on this contract, gross of fees. I don't know much about the legislative process, but maybe there is a small risk this bill won't be signed before January 31, 2007, the deadline on the contract? Also consider the exchange fees and the float (they require frozen funds to cover any possible losses, so if you short 100 contracts at 99 [with a potential profit of $10], they freeze $990), and that may explain some of the Asks at 99+ that aren't getting snapped up.
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#9
09-30-2006, 11:36 PM
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Re: why is the tradesports contract at 88 and not 100?
It would be wrong for this contract to have expired. The contract reads:
"The 109th US Congress passes a bill and the US President signs a new law..." Given that the President has not signed the law yet, there should still be trading on the contract.
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