Ducks +1 at ASU

[Tyrannosaurus]

I can't believe the line slipped this far. Some haters think the ducks aren't so good. I disagree

1. We barely beat Oklahoma, and needed a beneficial call to recover the onside kick. True. But we made 3 count em 3 turnovers that game to their zero, just for Oklahoma to catch up.

2. Oregon can't stop the run. We didn't do so well against Fresno state, then Adrian Pererson, the top tailback in the nation puts up 200 on us. To the casual observer, it seems that we can't stop the run. But we held AP to something like 70 yards on 20 carries in the first half of that game. He ran up all those yards in the second half while we were turning the ball over every posession and our defense was on the field the entire time.

And Johnathon Stewart is supposed to be 100% this week.

Then ASU got rolled last week by CAL. I declare that Oregon being 1 point dogs is outrageous

Edit: forgot to mention the Ducks are coming off a BYE

[BobJoeJim]

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Another Duck fan on these boards? Sweet! I do like the Ducks here a little bit, and more now that they're getting points, but the objective side of me feels you're overestimating the edge a bit. Read my post in Iggy's thread for some of my reasons. As for your specific points, just some caveats to keep in mind:

1. Committing three turnovers and getting zero takeaways isn't exactly a good thing... I know what you're getting at, which is that if you assume turnovers will balance over time, we actually outplayed Oklahoma by more than the score indicates. We did lose the turnover battle 3-0 though, and that's bad.

2. AP actually had less than 70 through the first three quarters. He's also a notorious second half back though. Our run defense can't be considered particularly good, so far (although I think it's probably better than our pass defense... we will have to beat ASU down offensively to win this game).

Stewart at 100% will be big, I think we can outscore them, but it'll be a shootout. Also, don't overestimate ASU's blowout loss. If you're going to point out Oregon's turnover margin against Oklahoma as evidence that they're better than they looked on the scoreboard, you have to give ASU the same credit, and acknowledge that without two defensive touchdowns and a punt return, ASU only would have lost 28-21, against a much better defense than ours.

I declare that at +1, Oregon is a good bet, because ASU's defense is horrendous (maybe even as bad as ours), and our offense (with Stewart healthy) is imo better, plus the bye week. I think calling the line "outrageous," is going a little far though.

In any case, GO DUCKS!!!!!!

[sportsgambler735]

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Another Duck fan on these boards? Sweet! I do like the Ducks here a little bit, and more now that they're getting points, but the objective side of me feels you're overestimating the edge a bit. Read my post in Iggy's thread for some of my reasons. As for your specific points, just some caveats to keep in mind:

1. Committing three turnovers and getting zero takeaways isn't exactly a good thing... I know what you're getting at, which is that if you assume turnovers will balance over time, we actually outplayed Oklahoma by more than the score indicates. We did lose the turnover battle 3-0 though, and that's bad.

2. AP actually had less than 70 through the first three quarters. He's also a notorious second half back though. Our run defense can't be considered particularly good, so far (although I think it's probably better than our pass defense... we will have to beat ASU down offensively to win this game).

Stewart at 100% will be big, I think we can outscore them, but it'll be a shootout. Also, don't overestimate ASU's blowout loss. If you're going to point out Oregon's turnover margin against Oklahoma as evidence that they're better than they looked on the scoreboard, you have to give ASU the same credit, and acknowledge that without two defensive touchdowns and a punt return, ASU only would have lost 28-21, against a much better defense than ours.

I declare that at +1, Oregon is a good bet, because ASU's defense is horrendous (maybe even as bad as ours), and our offense (with Stewart healthy) is imo better, plus the bye week. I think calling the line "outrageous," is going a little far though.

In any case, GO DUCKS!!!!!!

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vegas doesnt make their money by being stupid. when i first looked at this line i said wtf. I am only playing my one game on saturday, but i went with ari st on my espn picks and wouldnt be surprised at all if they won.

[SomethingClever]

I bet this game at Oregon -1.5... I may go make a larger bet now that it's +1.

Of course, I'm an Oregon fan, and I don't really "trust" them to win this game, but on paper they should.

[Tyrannosaurus]

The final line was Oregon +2.5. What a joke

[moneyshot]

and to think, david patrick blew his $100K pick on ASU in this one

[Moozh]

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But we made 3 count em 3 turnovers that game to their zero, just for Oklahoma to catch up.

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Actually, we made 4.

2 Dixon interceptions.
1 Stewart fumble that was reviewed and not overturned.
1 Muffed punt reception.