NL200: Folding sets.

[mudbuddha]

my eyes are bleeding

[wheatrich]

I think hand 2 is a fold. I can't come up with a hand UTG could have that shoves that doesn't have the straight in it unless he's completely stupid (which this being 100 there's a heck of a good chance of). But stupid people would have queen ten or ten seven there so... hmmph. I think it's a fold still. Not a major leak though either way.

Fold on hand 1 is okay but probably -EV but not majorly so as everyone claims. Depends on how postflop passive MP plays. (I don't use pokertracker stats so I barely know what they mean lol)

[Van Strummer]

Wow, you all agree so I guess there is a good chance the fold is really bad.

Here is what I think about the first hand. Everyone who hates the fold please let me know where I go wrong.

Preflop, a pretty passive players raises from UTG+1. His range is probably pocket pairs, AK, AQ, maybe AJ and KQ, Maybe it could also possible be two high suited connectors.

Flop, he checks in a three way pot. He either missed or hit a monster. I really doubt he would check AK or the very unlikely 45s here. He could check a set as the flop is not very likely to have hit me.

Turn, I bet and he raises. There is a chance he might look me as overaggressive and he is trying to take away the pot, although I doubt it. Its almost certain the turn card did not help him, so if he has a hand he flopped it. The shortstack with no chance of taking the pot down without a hand moves in and we call (his allin did not open the betting). I guess its possible the shortstack could have a straight draw here.

River, villain bets 90 into the dry sidepot. If he had a K I think there is no chance he would do this. Remember he is not a bad player. Him having a king really doesnt match the rest of the hand either.

He either has a set, or some kind of pocketpair between 66 and QQ, and he believes the shortstack was on a draw on the turn and he is trying to force me off a king or something. He is risking 90 to take down the pot of 177 the times I laydown and shortstack actually was on a draw on the turn. I find it a lot more likely (75%+) that he has a set than that he is trying to pull off a move like this.

I guess you all think passive NL200 players makes these moves frequently, because that is pretty much my only hope here.

[mikechops]

Hand 2 maybe... but hand 1 is bad. If I thought a villain would fold a set on the river to a 1/2 pot bet, I'd be doing it everytime. You may well be beat but you only have to good 1 time in 4.

[JCCARL]

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can't believe you folded the river in hand 1

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