how beatable

[Leader]

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the 3-6 game is beatable and an analysis o around 8 dollars an hour seems right mathmatecially and has been proven thus ar in my small sample size. (played about 20 hours up about 200)

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That's what 600-800 hands? That's basically meaningless. You have to play about 200K to have any decent idea of your win rate. i.e. about + or - 1 BB/100.

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I created another post... how much money do i need to play 15/30 without having to worry about going broke. (assume i average only .5BB after rake per hundred hands) A downswing could be pretty bad if i'm such a slight winning player. How many big bets should i start with.

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1000 or about 30K if you can only beat the game for that much and you’re looking to live off the money you make, and the swings with that small a win rate are going to be sick. From what I've heard about 15/30 live games though, decent play should net you more then that. Of course if you’re not really that worried about going broke, you could start with a tenth of that. You’ll go broke some of the time, but most of the time you’ll build it in to a good roll.

[srebbeg]

Somebody's from Sydney [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

the game plays much larger than 1/2 imho and on fri/sat it's donktastic. Even with alcohol and absolutely stupid calls I can usually end up ahead. There's also some females at the table which is a big change.

[PantherZ]

4/8
10% rake, max $3 (plus $1 jackpot)
Typical 5-6 players to the flop

Would a solid Miller SSH player be a favorite to beat the rake in this game? If so, what type of winrate would be reasonable?

[Yossarian147]

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If you play online, I suggest you use 25/50 cent full ring as a gauge for typical 6/12 or under live games. I play the 25 stakes to get practice extracting the most out of that level of player, and also use my winrates (smallish sample, 12k hands) to guide my calculations above. I believe 25-50 is beatable for 9BB/100 before rake, while the game is generally tighter than my local 4/8; this is where I get my estimates for 9-12BB/100 for 4/8 and lower. Your 5/10 game sounds like my usual conditions.
-Curtis

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9bb/100, you must be one of the greatest poker players of all time.

[Yossarian147]

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4/8
10% rake, max $3 (plus $1 jackpot)
Typical 5-6 players to the flop

Would a solid Miller SSH player be a favorite to beat the rake in this game? If so, what type of winrate would be reasonable?

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absolutely, that is the kind of game SSH is written for. 1-1.5bb/hr seems reasonable.

[Kaeser]

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9bb/100, you must be one of the greatest poker players of all time.

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I don't get this Yossarian. First you make a sarcastic comment about a 9bb/100 figure. Then in your very next post you state that a 4/8 game can be beaten for 1.5bb/hour.

1.5bb/hour=4.5bb/100 if the dealers are fast. Factor the rake into that and you're looking at right around 9bb/100. Remember that live games in general play much looser then games online. The winrates are substantially higher at these low limits.

[lmcjaho]

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The second question-- 0.5 BB/100 is $15 per 3 hrs, or $5/hr if you're talking live. Why play that high for $5/hr?

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VBCurtis - how many hands/hr did you use to calculate that?

[VBCurtis]

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I believe 25-50 is beatable for 9BB/100 before rake, while the game is generally tighter than my local 4/8; this is where I get my estimates for 9-12BB/100 for 4/8 and lower. Your 5/10 game sounds like my usual conditions.
-Curtis

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9bb/100, you must be one of the greatest poker players of all time.

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In the PT main screen, add the total rake paid to your profit, and recompute your winrate before rake . At micro stakes online, some sites have a 4BB/100 rake, and beating a 25-cent limit game for 5BB/100 is totally feasible-- we're not talking 1/2 here. Presto! 9BB/100.

You don't have to accept my gross (before rake) winrate estimates, either-- I detailed my calculation method, so you can plug in numbers that suit your game, if you wish.

I suggest you take your 1-1.5 BB/hr guess for the other poster's 4/8 and figure out what BB/100 that corresponds to before rake. If you include a $1 tip per fully raked pot, it's quite close to 9BB/100 for 1.5 BB/hr.

Which is it, then? Is 9BB/100 gross impossible, making 1.5BB/hr after rake impossible?

[VBCurtis]

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The second question-- 0.5 BB/100 is $15 per 3 hrs, or $5/hr if you're talking live. Why play that high for $5/hr?

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VBCurtis - how many hands/hr did you use to calculate that?

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Standard low-limit live game assumption for simplicity is 3 hours to play 100 hands, 33 hands/hour. As the games get higher, more hands without flops happen, and 40 hands/hr is probably more accurate, which would change the above winrate to $6/hr.

Autoshufflers and experienced players mean 40/hr can happen at 4/8 or 6/12, too, but almost never at the lowest limit a room spreads-- just realizing the action is on them is an acquired skill for beginning cardroom players.
-Curtis

[VBCurtis]

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4/8
10% rake, max $3 (plus $1 jackpot)
Typical 5-6 players to the flop

Would a solid Miller SSH player be a favorite to beat the rake in this game? If so, what type of winrate would be reasonable?

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Absolutely! This is a typical Vegas vigorish, and more beatable than SoCal rooms (where rake is $3+1 on any flop, pot size be damned).

Some calculations, because I like them:
Assume you win 8 pots per 100, paying 3.50 avg rake and a dollar tip; further, suppose you can pull 8BB/100 before rake from the game. 8BB=$64, less $36 in rake&tips, and profit comes out $28/100 hands. This would be $9/hr if the dealer is on the slow side, or as high as $11/hr at an attentive table (33 hands/hr slow, 40 hands/hr fast)

8BB/100 before rake is lower than expert play, but possible using Miller's style. Bump that to 10BB/100, and winrate range changes to $17-20/hr. I think Miller mentions somewhere in SSHE that 2 BB/hr at 4/8 or 6/12 can happen-- this is why. 10BB/100 gross is possible at REALLY soft games, the kind where there is not a player at the table you have respect for.
-Curtis