Week 5 CFB Notions

[ML4L]

14-14-1, -3.62 units YTD

I feel like Chevy Chase in Vegas Vacation...

"Hey, I... didn't lose!"

Not the best week I've ever had, but digging myself a hole early in the season doesn't change the fact that booking a small win every week is the ultimate goal. So, hopefully I'll do that again and be back to even in a couple of weeks.

All bets below are at Pinnacle.

2 units - Michigan -7 -115 at Minnesota
2 units - Ga. Tech +10 -111 at Va. Tech
2 units - Miami -15.5 -105 vs Houston
2 units - Cincinnati -8 -108 vs Miami OH
2 units - Notre Dame/Purdue o61 -105
2 units - Missouri/Colorado u44 -114

A little slow on the draw this week on the early numbers, but I hit a couple of good numbers before they moved... There were also a couple of complete gimmes that I hesitated on, and it cost me... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Anyway, writes-up will come during the week whenever I get bored at work. Good luck to everyone.

ML4L

[mmbt0ne]

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2 units - Ga. Tech +10 -111 at Va. Tech


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GT is a notoriously fickle team, and I hate recommending any bets on them. I hope you're right though. We've looked better than we have since the Hamilton and Godsey years so far. Plus, last year we went into Blacksburg 3-0 and got EMBARRASSED. With a roster full of returning players, I can't imagine anyone forgot that, and I don't think they let it happen again.

If Nix can keep it up with the play calling he's shown in the last 3 games I think GT has an excellent chance of covering. If he didn't go all passive in the ND game, then we might be talking about a 3-0 GT team that is a serious contender for the ACC title.

My [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] yearns for the upset, but I won't make any predictions like that.

[ML4L]

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2 units - Ga. Tech +10 -111 at Va. Tech

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Holla.

ML4L

[ML4L]

OK, here is a little bit of analysis to generate some discussion.

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Michigan -7 -115 at Minnesota

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See also MT2R's thread. This play is ABC handicapping. Minnesota has to run the ball to be successful. Michigan has the best rush defense in the country. Minnesota is tough on its home field, and Lloyd Carr is a miserable coach, but seven is a short number. I made the game -10, and honestly, if that's what the number had come, I would have played that too (good news for everyone not yet on the game, because that's the current line).

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2 units - Ga. Tech +10 -111 at Va. Tech

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I'm surprised that there has been as much Va. Tech money on this game as there has been. The line kept trying to creep down to 8 but would always get bet pretty hard before it could. Perhaps these people haven't watched Va. Tech play yet... I've seen two of their games, and I just don't think that their offense is good enough to lay double-digits to a quality opponent. I hate putting my money in the hands of Reggie Ball, but I honestly think that Ga. Tech only needs to get to 10 to cover here. Va. Tech is going to need at least one big special teams or defensive play to have a chance at covering, IMO, so I'll take my chances. FWIW, I made Va. Tech -7.

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2 units - Miami -15.5 -105 vs Houston

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I really didn't expect to play this game, but this line is unthinkably low, given the talent gap between the two teams. I don't think there are a whole lot of specifics to talk about on either side, which is why I didn't think I was going to get involved. But, I made the line -21 and thought it was one of my sharper lines of the weekend. I started to get worried that I made a huge mistake when money didn't come on Miami, but I listened to the archive Dave Cokin's Sunday night show, and he said the exact same thing that I had been thinking (i.e. that he was amazed that this line isn't -21). The money has started to inch onto Miami now, and I think that the line will cross 17 by game-time.

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2 units - Cincinnati -8 -108 vs Miami OH

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This is a game where I'm benefitting from people who check final scores instead of watching games and reading box-scores. Cincinnati played with Pitt, tOSU, and Va. Tech for three quarters before fading late. They have a lot of returning talent on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. They might be a little turnover-prone, but I don't expect that to be an issue this week due to Miami OH's lack of talent. The coaching staff is running that program into the ground; they continue to look worse and worse every week. Number was a smidge higher than I was hoping for; I think I made it -9.5, but I like the Cincy side, even at that number. Similar to Miami, I was amazed at the lack of early money, but it's starting to come in on Cincy now.

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2 units - Notre Dame/Purdue o61 -105

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This is a strength vs. weakness play. Purdue has one of the worst major-college secondaries in football, giving up huge passing yards to Ball St. and Miami OH. Notre Dame has one of the best passing attacks in the game. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame can't stop the run at all and just gave up 37 points to a QB with a good arm who can also run the ball. Purdue has a good offense, led by a QB with a good arm who can also run the ball. Hmmm...

This is an "over" game where I don't think you can set the line high enough. Betting a high total, you know you're never going to cover by 20+, but I think it gets into the high 60's most of the time. I made the line 65, which is where it was on Sunday night before coming back down to 63. I expect it to be bet back up to around 64 at close.

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2 units - Missouri/Colorado u44 -114

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This number was a gift. All of the talk is about Missouri's offense, but their rush defense is one of the country's best to this point, albeit against weak opposition. Against a team with a decent offense, I would be a little wary, but Colorado just doesn't seem to have anything on that side of the ball (other than their kicker). Colorado's defense has also proven itself to be outstanding, so I don't think that Missouri is going to put up its gaudy numbers unless Colorado rolls over after the disappointment from last week. I made the total 39, and it's down to 38 now, so I'm actually thinking about turning this into a middle...

Adding...

2 units - Arizona St. +3 -120 vs Oregon (BetCRIS)

The line was actually +2.5, but BetCRIS lets you buy onto the three for 10 cents, so I went ahead and did it (I'm probably a sucker...). I played this Sunday night, and feel badly because I didn't post it, because I'm not certain that the line is going to get up there again. It's +1.5 everywhere now; my guess is that Arizona St. is going to go off as the favorite at -1, but there has been a lot of Oregon money so far, so the line might end up closing around where it is now...

Anyway, again, not a ton of specific analysis; more of a value-play. Oregon has gotten a lot of hype so far this year, but I'm not sold on them yet. They rolled Stanford, but it's becoming obvious that that doesn't mean much. They struggled on the road against a rebuilding Fresno St. team before beating Oklahoma in a game that they probably should have lost (although they played them about even, IMO). The Oklahoma win doesn't impress me much, since they have inexplicably struggled all season. Meanwhile, Arizona St. has been a little inconsistent so far but is still a pretty good team, especially at home. Their loss last week to Cal was not nearly as lopsided as the score makes it seem, and Cal, despite their early struggles, has significantly more defensive speed/talent than Oregon. I don't think that Oregon will be able to force Carpenter into mistakes the way that Cal/Colorado has. Oregon will get their points, but I'll take the home dog in a game in which the two teams are, for all intents and purposes, evenly-matched, IMHO.

I'm feeling really good this week, because we're starting to move from preseason homework into regular season homework, which I am generally better at. I attribute a lot of my early struggles to falling in love with some teams (e.g. Tulsa, Marshall) that appear to have more flaws than I had expected. But, the past couple weeks, most of plays have been games that I had not been "looking" to play going in, which I think can be good, because it lets me know that bias is not creeping into my handicapping. As it stands now, I've gotten the best number (or darn close to it) on all seven of my plays, which also lets me know that I'm capping well.

AOf course, back-patting is usually followed by a losing week, so I should probably keep my mouth shut... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Anyway, I'd love to hear peoples' thoughts on the games.

ML4L

[pirateboy]

Questions:

I didn't pull the trigger on Michigan at -8 earlier, and its at -10.5. I feel there is still strong value, but need your take before I do it.

Also, in another thread you liked Arizona State +3.5 I know their loss to Cal was a little misleading, considering that Cal scored 21 points from special teams and defense. Still, State didn't play well at all, and Oregon has looked better than Cal on offense. Deep thoughts from ML4L?

[ML4L]

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I didn't pull the trigger on Michigan at -8 earlier, and its at -10.5. I feel there is still strong value, but need your take before I do it.

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I saw -9.5 last night, and I think it's still a play at that number. I'd probably even do -10. I'd start to get a little worried about the backdoor factor once I crossed 10, but I certainly don't want any piece of Minny, even at +10.5.

So, I'd try to find a -9.5 or -10 somewhere and then pull the trigger...

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Also, in another thread you liked Arizona State +3.5 I know their loss to Cal was a little misleading, considering that Cal scored 21 points from special teams and defense. Still, State didn't play well at all, and Oregon has looked better than Cal on offense. Deep thoughts from ML4L?

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I only got +3, unfortunately... My line of thinking involves a lot of the things that you're getting at. They aren't four TD's worse than Cal. They went on the road for the second week in a row and laid an egg. It happens. They were able to move the ball on Cal's defense, and honestly, holding Cal's offense to around 400 yards is semi-impressive for what has been historically such a terrible defense. People seem to forget that Cal has a ton of athleticism and talent on the defensive side of the ball, particularly on the line and in the secondary. They got to Carpenter and made him look bad.

Incidentally, I think that there are some people in Athens, GA that would argue that beating Colorado pretty badly on the road is more impressive than as it might have seemed...

I don't think that Oregon has the talent defensively to do the same thing; it just hasn't become evident yet. Stanford is a bye, but they gave up 24 to a very average Fresno St. offense and probably should have lost the game. I'm also not especially impressed with their win against Oklahoma, whose defense gave up at least 20 to UAB and Washington while looking mediocre on offense.

Part of me is very worried that this game is going to be a repeat of last year, when Oregon completely outclassed ASU in Tempe. I have never been a big ASU fan... But, I think that Ngata was a big reason why Oregon was able to beat up on them last year, and without him, ASU stands a good chance playing at home...

ML4L

[Jibba]

I believe it's still 9.5 at most sites. Only place where I've seen 10.5 is SIA. Everywhere else is still 9.5.

[BobJoeJim]

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Questions:

I didn't pull the trigger on Michigan at -8 earlier, and its at -10.5. I feel there is still strong value, but need your take before I do it.

Also, in another thread you liked Arizona State +3.5 I know their loss to Cal was a little misleading, considering that Cal scored 21 points from special teams and defense. Still, State didn't play well at all, and Oregon has looked better than Cal on offense. Deep thoughts from ML4L?

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Not from ML4L, but for thoughts as to why Oregon isn't necessarily a lock, see my post in Iggy's thread.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Questions:

I didn't pull the trigger on Michigan at -8 earlier, and its at -10.5. I feel there is still strong value, but need your take before I do it.

Also, in another thread you liked Arizona State +3.5 I know their loss to Cal was a little misleading, considering that Cal scored 21 points from special teams and defense. Still, State didn't play well at all, and Oregon has looked better than Cal on offense. Deep thoughts from ML4L?

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I have said before and continue to believe that Arizona State is a huge jekyll and hyde team. They seem to quit on games at times. I think they quit on the Cal game too early. They stopped running the ball when they had been quite successful. Oregon's rush defense scares me big time. I still bet on Oregon, but I see a strong SunDevil case as well. I think this game will be one of the more entertaining of the weekend.

[Mr. 33]

Michigan's only road game was against an overrated ND team (108th in rushing) that relied on throwing the ball. Central Michigan, Vanderbilt, and Wisconsin have anything but strong rushing numbers (all between 50th and 80th in rushing yards per game). Minnesota is 8th in rushing. Good rushing = longer possesions = no way they lose by 10.