AA vs crazy turn overbet

[kokiri]

Two rounds of the table, table has been tight, with few pots getting >$8.

Reraise flop??
Fold Turn??
What do we pujt villain on? 2p JK, a set? trash?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($126.51)
BB ($54.90)
Hero ($53.10)
MP ($55.50)
Button ($55.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9.25</font>, Hero calls $6.75.

Turn: ($22.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Villain is all in [$43.65]

[PocketElevens]

Most people dont play a set like this, it feels like 64.
I dont think its a bluff, I think hes scared of anymore cards coming off.

I would of 3 bet the flop, since stack those lower overpairs in this spot alot more then I run into trips.

[the machine]

fold

he cr'd flop now pushes. AA is no good here

[EMc]

I think a fold here is best without a read. I also, however, like a nice 3 bet on the flop.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a fold here is best without a read. I also, however, like a nice 3 bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

and are we folding to a push if we 3 bet....

[Happy Time Harry]

Flop: I like to lead with a PSB here. The raise looks serious and the board is pretty dry. Definitely don't fold, but be careful on the turn.

Turn: If I don't have a set in a situation like this, I'm never going to call unless I have a read that villain is giving his money away. Sucks, but I fold this turn.

[Yo'Maha]

[ QUOTE ]
I think hes scared of anymore cards coming off./quote]

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a fold here is best without a read. I also, however, like a nice 3 bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's typically c/r'ing this flop that calls a 3-bet that we beat? On a good day, AJ, KJ, QQ and KK, but some of those may find a fold. Two pair seems pretty unlikely given the board and PF, but a set seems more likely to me than most of those, though, so I'm not a big fan of this plan. The board is pretty dry, with 75 being the only real draw, so I'm not worried about having to shut out all kinds of draws.

If two pair didn't look so damn unlikely, I'd probably fold here. But, since I think two pair is quite uncommon and other overpairs/AJ could definitely take this tack, I think on balance you're probably ahead often enough to call the turn.

[kokiri]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: I like to lead with a PSB here. The raise looks serious and the board is pretty dry. Definitely don't fold, but be careful on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

on a board this dry, i'm very much wa/wb, and i don't really like a PSB so much. If i'm ahead, I'm still not giving decent odds to the villain and i'm more likely to get a call with a smaller bet; if i'm behind, i don't bloat the pot. I would bet this amount regardless of my hand here.

A PSB will be less likely to get called by a worse hand and lets a better hand build a pot by just calling.