3/6 B&M, pot odds/DIPO question (long)

[MandM_WSU]

Here's a hand I had a few weeks back that still troubles me. I've been reading King Yao's <u>Weighing the Odds in Hold'em Poker</u> and studying his DIPO method (Do I Have Pot Odds?).

I'm in the big blind and two new players (friends just off work and starting to have a few cocktails) to my immediate left decide to blind straddle and then double blind straddle.

UTG, blind raises to $6
UTG +1, blind raises to $9
UTG +2, calls $9
MP1, calls $9
MP2, mucks (exposing 7x and a face card)
CO, calls $9
Button, mucks (exposing 8x and a rag)
SB, completes and calls $9
Hero BB, has 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] calls $9
UTG, calls $3

Pot = $58, 9.5 BB (minus $3 for rake and $2 for jackpot)

Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB - bets $3
Hero BB - calls $3
UTG and UTG+1 (straddlers) both fold
UTG +2 - calls $3
MP1 and CO fold

Pot = $67, 11BB

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB – checks
Hero BB – checks
UTG +2 – bets $6
SB – calls $6
Hero??????

The pot is now $79 (13 big bets). Should I chase my two-outer?

Using the DIPO method to count pot odds, I compare my ‘good number’ versus my ‘bad number’. The good number is the expected pot size (EPS) times my number of outs. The bad number is the number of non-outs. If my good number is higher than my bad number, I have the odds to call. If I call the turn and then if I hit my miracle 6 on the river and bet out and get two callers, my EPS could be 17 big bets. This times my outs (2 x 17 = 34) gives me a good number of 34. The bad number is 40 (46 unknown cards, minus my two outs, minus the four exposed cards). 40 is larger than 34, so I really shouldn’t call.

However, this is a very loose table and I could check-raise the river if my card hits and gain another 3 big bets. Then my good number and bad number would equal out, 40 and 40.

I’d appreciate any thoughts on any of the streets and especially those who are familiar with the DIPO method.

Thanks,

MM

[argybargy2002]

Mate that seems to be a very complicated way of working out pot odds. You've got 2 outs on the turn (and they seem reasonably clean given the 2's pairing). This gives you about a 4% chance of winning. So in order to get the odds to call you wouold have to estimate that the end pot is likely to be 25 big bets (MAYBE we can say 23 on the slight chance you are winning here).

Here I think there is a chance the pot could get to 25, but only if, as you say they call a 3 bet on the river when your card hits. Personally I wouldn't count on it and I'd fold, but then I'm a pessimist.

[JJH3984]

am i missing something here? I think the flop is a pretty clear fold.

[NWCougar]

2 outs needs to be getting 23-1, you're getting 13-1. So fold. Also, this is an easy fold on the flop.

[RyanCMU]

easy fold on the flop, and easy on the turn.

Plus, I think you are making figuring out if you shoudl call or not based on odds to be overly compllicated, as others have said.

[Xhad]

I remember Mason Malmuth said in his review of King Yao's book that DIPO was too complicated and cumbersome for beginners. If it's really convincing you to peel 2 outers getting &lt; 15:1 then he may have a point.

[Ron Burgundy]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember Mason Malmuth said in his review of King Yao's book that DIPO was too complicated and cumbersome for beginners. If it's really convincing you to peel 2 outers getting &lt; 15:1 then he may have a point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weighing the Odds was a great book overall. But the DIPO thing was useless at best. Pot odds is not a difficult concept. The DIPO method makes simple decisions seem very complicated and difficult to perform at the table. I would suggest to anyone who hasn't read the book yet to skip the DIPO chapter entirely.

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
am i missing something here? I think the flop is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you would fold because you fear a raise behind you?

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
am i missing something here? I think the flop is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you would fold because you fear a raise behind you?

[/ QUOTE ]

No,

I'm folding because I'm are only getting 21:1, my hand may not win even if I hit (either its not good or I'm exposed to a spade redraw) so I'm not getting the implied odds I need, AND I'm not closing the action. I don't think this decision is that close.

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
am i missing something here? I think the flop is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you would fold because you fear a raise behind you?

[/ QUOTE ]

No,

I'm folding because I'm are only getting 21:1, my hand may not win even if I hit (either its not good or I'm exposed to a spade redraw) so I'm not getting the implied odds I need, AND I'm not closing the action. I don't think this decision is that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that the flop is an easy fold. Only because of the strong likelihood that there will be a raise behind us. Without this reason, I have to think that this would be an easy call. There are more than enough implied odds. Hitting a six will not help a flush draw since we have the six of spades. If we hit the six we have more outs to a boat than any flush redraw and we have no reason to believe that anyone is drawing to a flush. Rarely are we fortunate enough to have a hand that can't loose when we hit our draw. The pot is big.