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#71
09-28-2006, 12:35 AM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
[ QUOTE ]
Mr. 33, Trends are not trends. Take a classic example. I for the last 90 of 113 nights have had relations with my girlfriend before I went to bed. Obv. I should cover tonight... But alas... she's on the rag. tOSU 31-14 (I thought I'd bring some OOT and BBV to SBF) [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but you'll cover enough where if I knew of your past experiences, it's +EV, especially if I got good odds on it. Unfortunately, I assume the books would catch on and they would take my money 
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#72
09-28-2006, 12:36 AM
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Re: Auburn/South Carolina
[ QUOTE ]
added South Carolina u11.5 v Auburn OK, they switched qbs. Big deal. South Carolina has not been able to score verse SEC teams. Auburn beat S Carolina 48-7 last year. Auburn is better. S Car is worse. Yes, the homefield as flipped, but that won't be enough. The only team to score over 11.5 verse Auburn was a dynamic Wazzu offense in week 1. After shutting down LSU, look for the Tigers to come out with the same effort. Expect the gamecocks to look like the team that Georgia completely dominated. [/ QUOTE ] Christ I love this pick
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#73
09-28-2006, 12:56 AM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Mr. 33, Trends are not trends. Take a classic example. I for the last 90 of 113 nights have had relations with my girlfriend before I went to bed. Obv. I should cover tonight... But alas... she's on the rag. tOSU 31-14 (I thought I'd bring some OOT and BBV to SBF) [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but you'll cover enough where if I knew of your past experiences, it's +EV, especially if I got good odds on it. Unfortunately, I assume the books would catch on and they would take my money [/ QUOTE ] +300 on Will Not SIIHP?
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#78
09-28-2006, 01:57 AM
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Re: Auburn/South Carolina
Crossing 14 is blah. I just picked up Auburn at -13.5 and was happy to buy the half point. Really not correct to buy the half point but what the hell. I pushed a lot of games last week and don't want to again this week.
-Brendan
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#79
09-28-2006, 06:05 AM
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TCU -5 @ BYU
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I'll give credit to BobJoeJim for pointing this one out Thursday night TCU -5 v BYU [/ QUOTE ] I've seen TCU v Baylor saw BYU v Arizona and Boston College TCU's defense is for real. It's one thing to shut down Baylor, another to crush BYU. BYU struggles when it cannot get it's passing game going. That's what I see TCU specifically stopping. Watch this game and you'll be impressed with the caliber of player on both sidelines but especially TCU's one of four Thursday picks Auburn -14 S Carolina u11.5 Auburn/S Carolina u40 as well
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#80
09-28-2006, 12:43 PM
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Re: Oregon -2 @ ASU
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Oregon -2 @ Arizona State [/ QUOTE ] gosh darn...I'm stuck betting an ASU game again, but ASU really got exposed last week. The pros for ASU are that ORegon has had trouble stopping the run and ASU runs very well for a team with a pass-first reputation. In addition, the injuries in the secondary and OLB for the Ducks create some gaps for the Sun Devil pass attack. the pros from the Oregon POV: they will dominate on offense. The Ducks have a truly versatile attack that has crushed good competition. They also have a good pass rush that forces the opposing QB into tough situations. So far, that has been Carpenter's downfall and it will be the key of this game IMO. FWIW: Gottfreid and McShay both agreed on this pick in a big way. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, but Oregon doesn't have a good pass rush. Don't I wish they did. If you're basing this off of the sack stats (6 in 4 games), know that those came almost exclusively on blitzes, and that Oregon blitzes relatively seldom, because the sacks they pile up with blitzes tend to be negated by the touchdown's they give up any time the blitz is picked up, since the corners aren't good enough to be left on an island. See my post in Iggy's thread for more pessimistic thoughts on this game from an Oregon homer. I still think the Ducks are the better pick (and was willing to admit that Oklahoma was a great pick two weeks ago, so I'd like to think I'm capable of being objective about my Ducks), but there are some major caveats that are worth considering.
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Linear Mode
