Update - Week of September 25th

[LearnedfromTV]

A few political capital questions for the insiders re Frist and the lame duck period/next year:

- If Republicans maintain control on the Senate, is Frist certain/likely/unlikely to be majority leader in the next Senate? (is this revisited in each congress, does the rift in the party mean he may be replaced, etc.?)

- how would Frist's likely status in the next Senate (whether b/c the Dems win control or b/c he may lose leadership, whatever) affect his ability to get what he wants in the lame duck session? How lame a duck might he be?

- Who are the other most powerful Republican Senators? If Frist has lost status in the party, who in the party benefits? (wrt the lame duck period, which senators might be pulling strings Frist can't pull as well any more? If he were to be replaced next year, by whom?)

[Jay Cohen]

My source in Washington just told me Frist is now definitely trying to attach it to the Homeland Security bill.

I am not sure how current my contact's information is.

[Mr.K]

1.) Frist will not be a member of the Senate next year, he did not run for re-election this time, clearing the way for him to run for President.

2.) See above.

3.) Mitch McConnell will be the Republican leader in the Senate whether the GOP loses its majority or not. That's what I'm hearing anyhow, from extremely reliable sources. As always, events make this claim subject to change (see e.g. Trent Lott after the 2002 elections). The race for who will be the #2 Republican will be somewhat wide open, and will depend on whether Rick Santorum wins his PA SEN race. At present that isn't looking likely, which would open up a slot for either Trent Lott, Lamar Alexander, or someone else to try & grab the GOP Whip slot.

[IHateCats]

Highly probable and is likely to be even more of a threat since there still isn't much widespread opposition to this on it's merits, it's being opposed by Warner, etc to protect committee turf & bipartisanship on high profile DOD authorization. Frist isn't likely to face as powerful of a chokepoint as the Armed Services committee & percieved need for bipartisanship when US troops are deployed in harms way with the few bills that will be pushed during lame duck. At this point our best hope is that Dems crush in the elections and then are rejuvinated enough to block Frist on pretty much everything in the lame duck session out of general orneriness.

[ShivasIrons]

Of course Iowa holds a caucus and not a primary. Frist has as much chance of becoming President as I do. Anyone with any political savvy, even Leach, understands this. No way Leach stays with a loser just because he pushed pet legislation thru. Frist is fooling himself, but he appears to be doing just that.

[spatne]

Frist will not be in the next Senate. He's not running for re-election in order to focus on his presidential run. Frist's open seat will be won in November by either Bob Corker (R) or Harold Ford, Jr. (D). Corker probably has the edge right now, but it's a closer race than most people had anticipated. It is certainly within reach for Ford.

Whichever party is in the majority will hold a vote for the new majority leader. Mitch McConnell (KY) is the current majority whip and is probably a good candidate to run for the post. Trent Lott (MS) might try to recapture the post after stepping down due to some unfortunate remarks he made at a function for Strom Thurmond. Rick Santorum (PA) is also in a power position, but his re-election bid is in big trouble as he's getting trounced by conservative Democrat Bob Casey, Jr.

If Democrats take control of the Senate, I assume that minority leader Harry Reid (NV) would get the job. I can't think of anyone who would/could mount a serious challenge at this point.

[DrPhysic]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume that minority leader Harry Reid (NV) would get the job.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it reasonable to assume that a Dem Senate majority leader from Nevada would not be a good thing for us?

Doc

[Berge20]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course Iowa holds a caucus and not a primary.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct - Brain in 100 places today. Difference is significant in many ways, but for what Frist is trying to do it doesn't matter.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
3.) Mitch McConnell will be the Republican leader in the Senate whether the GOP loses its majority or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't know that.

Wouldn't that be extremely positive for us?

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
My source in Washington just told me Frist is now definitely trying to attach it to the Homeland Security bill.

I am not sure how current my contact's information is.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might be, since Hastert is now trying to use the DHS bill for his riders too. However, CongressDaily PM reports:

" Senate Judiciary Chairman Specter is threatening to remove his signature from the FY07 Homeland Security appropriations conference report if House GOP leaders insist on adding more immigration-related legislation, possibly sinking the bill's chances for passage before the elections. He stated his intention in a letter today to House Speaker Hastert, Senate Majority Leader Frist and top GOP appropriators. Specter, a senior appropriator, signed off on the report when conferees approved it Monday night. "Operating in good faith, I was asked to sign the conference report with the understanding that the conference report was closed," Specter wrote. "I would like to state for the record my strong opposition to any changes to the agreed-upon conference report."
Hastert was holding back appropriators from filing the $34.8 billion spending bill until negotiators resolve whether to include House-passed bills on alien gang violence and court security in the spending bill or the defense authorization bill. Both House bills are within the Judiciary Committee's jurisdiction, and Specter and others have expressed opposition to the effort. Including the additional measures in the Homeland Security bill also might prompt Democratic conferees to remove their signatures. "What is this, the Soviet parliament? The leadership will make decisions behind closed doors, regardless of the rules?" asked House Appropriations ranking member David Obey, D-Wis. Hastert contended that he has received promises from Senate leaders to move the legislation one way or another."

Also of note:

"The Senate today kicked off debate on a contentious stand-alone military tribunal measure after Majority Leader Frist and Minority Leader Reid reached an agreement on a handful of amendments and limited debate. Frist said earlier today he would push the chamber to quickly wrap up debate on the legislation as early as tonight without amending the package. "I hope none of the amendments pass," Frist told reporters before announcing the deal.

[...]

Meanwhile, Frist today said he has four legislative goals to accomplish before adjourning Friday or Saturday: the military tribunal and border fence bills, as well as conference reports on FY07 Homeland Security and Defense spending measures. House and Senate Republicans have given up on enacting legislation addressing the president's domestic spying program. And the clock is ticking down on a conference report for the FY07 defense authorization bill."

Summary: the fight over non-germane riders has now moved from the defense authorization bill to DHS appropriations bill, although it is not clear if internet gabmling is a part of it. Fortunately, it looks like it may meet the same result. Other avenues for Frist are probably closed.

Left to intertial forces, this Congress will get very little done this week, and we will probably pass through to the elections unscathed. However, tidal shifts and deal-making of various kinds are certainly possible, which I will leave it to others to speculate about.

One thing's for sure -- if we make it through the year without internet gambling language being enacted, we will owe a big thank you to Senators Warner and Specter.