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#41
09-25-2006, 09:01 PM
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Re: tOSU -6 @ Iowa
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The one factor I think you are overlooking in the OSU-Iowa game is weather. OSU can be slowed down by bad weather, as was shown by the Penn State game. Right now, the forecast is high of 60 with a few showers. This might be why the line is lower than you expected. However, I expect OSU to cover for the 5th straight week this year. [/ QUOTE ] nope...I looked at the weather few isolated showers...day before and day after are dry no big, day long thunderstorms expected [/ QUOTE ] A week out, that is fine. But who knows what it really will be. Rain will slow down OSU. I still like OSU in this, I just see why it isn't -16.5. 
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#42
09-26-2006, 12:22 AM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
Hey, this is my first time posting on the site but I've been reading and following most of your picks since week 1. I was wondering what you thought of Rutgers -3.5 @ South Florida. I like it a lot and would appreciate your opinion on it. Thanks
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#43
09-26-2006, 12:36 AM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
[ QUOTE ]
Hey, this is my first time posting on the site but I've been reading and following most of your picks since week 1. I was wondering what you thought of Rutgers -3.5 @ South Florida. I like it a lot and would appreciate your opinion on it. Thanks [/ QUOTE ] You're not asking me, but I'll tell you that I definitely lean toward Rutgers here too, prior to any analysis. Since it's the only game of the day I can assure you that I'll analyze it in depth at some point, I wasn't necessarily planning on looking at it until Friday, but perhaps in light of your question, I'll look at it tomorrow instead.
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#45
09-26-2006, 04:25 AM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hey, this is my first time posting on the site but I've been reading and following most of your picks since week 1. I was wondering what you thought of Rutgers -3.5 @ South Florida. I like it a lot and would appreciate your opinion on it. Thanks [/ QUOTE ] You're not asking me, but I'll tell you that I definitely lean toward Rutgers here too, prior to any analysis. Since it's the only game of the day I can assure you that I'll analyze it in depth at some point, I wasn't necessarily planning on looking at it until Friday, but perhaps in light of your question, I'll look at it tomorrow instead. [/ QUOTE ] yep...I was a Rutgers lean, too. BobJoeJim and I discussed it in the IRC chat channel. I believe the reason I laid off was the result of last year's game. South Florida is without Andre Hall this year, but the 45 they hung last year scared me off betting. If I were to bet, it would be with Rutgers
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#46
09-26-2006, 11:12 AM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
I'm on board with (albeit with worse lines):
OSU -7 - About 4 units, and I will likely add one or two more. Love this matchup. Michigan -9.5 - 2 units. Not nearly the -7 you got, but I still think it's good value. I think Michigan rolls here. Thinking of Auburn -14 and TCU -5.5.
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#47
09-26-2006, 12:28 PM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
I really almost feel like Michigan State falls under the Mike Tice rule. This team is impossible to figure out on a week-to-week basis. I feel comfortable fading Illinois, but man does it feel uncomfortable to bet on Mich. State after what had to be one of the worst choke jobs I have ever seen.
I agree with you on tOSU to cover @ Iowa. I figured this line would be around 12, and I may have bet it at that. I've been to the last two Purdue games, and I attended all of the home games last year. I can tell you that the pass D is better than last year, but still not very good. The corners are bigger and shouldn't be dragged for ten yards by Samardzija (sp?) every play. Quinn had over 400 yards in the game last year, mostly on quick passes. I think Purdue covers even on the road, but I am an alum so take it for what it's worth. If you recall, Purdue went three years only losing by more than 7 once until last year.
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#49
09-26-2006, 04:04 PM
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Re: tOSU -6 @ Iowa
for further validation...Tom Lugenbill and Todd McShay basically analyzed the Iowa/tOSU game in the exact same way I did. It was funny as they both gave a real definite 'No!' answer as to whether Iowa has a shot at winning. YOu can catch their reactions by watching the last 5 minutes of the College Coaches Spotlight Show on ESPNU. It's replayed a few times....the next is 8 PM to Midnight Eastern.
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#50
09-26-2006, 04:06 PM
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Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
Hi all, first I'd like to say thanks to MT2R and everyone else for their work and analysis. I feel bad for lurking and not providing any insight, but I don't do anywhere near as much research as the posters here, and it just wouldn't be right for me to suggest otherwise.
I do have a question, though. I already have my money in for 5(!)u on tOSU at -6.5, among a couple others. I am admittedly a grad of tOSU, and thus fit more with the public than with the sharps, but I've been watching this line, and it is holding steady at -7 +103 (Pinny). I've been to other sites that are all over Iowa--super tough at home, something like 20-5-3 ATS blah blah blah, but I have not heard any real analysis along the lines of MT2R's to advocate taking Iowa here. What gives? Is it just the non-Great Lake public keeping this line afloat?
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