Early NFL week 4 thoughts - Page 5

NajdorfDefense · #41 09-26-2006, 11:01 AM

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So what's up with the chargers - 2.5? Am I missing something? Is it because they played relatively weak teams so far and are overrated for a road game against the ravens? Because it looks like a solid game of the week to me.

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I agree, but McCardell may still be out, and LDT can't run 40x against Ravens and have SD win, Rivers will have to throw the ball and take some hits.

NajdorfDefense · #42 09-26-2006, 11:02 AM

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so far 1 unit down on PHL/GB over 45.5, if PHL is missing any of Dawkins/Lewis/Hood, McCoy and with Dante back this will be a shootout, if anyone can throw all over a replacement D, it's Favre, and Green looks solid.

SD -2. Probably a controversial pick, but I think the Chargers are for real, coming off the bye. Balt I still have questions about. 3 wins over opposition with an 0-8 record = not impressed yet.

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1 unit last night on NO +8.5 at betJamaica.

TonySoprano9 · #43 09-26-2006, 11:08 AM

I like the overs in PHI/GB as this has all the makings of a shootout. I also like San Diego but hate Seattle and i'll probably be going with the Bears on this one.

Shipwreck · #44 09-26-2006, 01:50 PM

san diego game: I took it like performity suggested early on (thanks man), only thing I'm nervous about is phillip rivers playing a real defense for the first time. Mcnair can really handle the blitz, especially after playing against blitzberg for several years. I have to agree though, how can you not get on board at chargers -2.5 early on.

natedogg · #45 09-26-2006, 02:04 PM

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san diego game: I took it like performity suggested early on (thanks man), only thing I'm nervous about is phillip rivers playing a real defense for the first time. Mcnair can really handle the blitz, especially after playing against blitzberg for several years. I have to agree though, how can you not get on board at chargers -2.5 early on.

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I think San Diego is a huge suckerbet this week.

This is their first road game, for all intents and purposes. They opened in Oakland which is a 1 hour flight. They destroyed Oakland and Tennessee which are not good teams.

Now they fly across country with a QB starting his 3rd NFL game vs. the Ravens defense at home.

Ravens coming home after a narrow road win vs. a division rival which made them look bad.

This has upset written all over it.

natedogg

NajdorfDefense · #46 09-26-2006, 02:25 PM

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san diego game: I took it like performity suggested early on (thanks man), only thing I'm nervous about is phillip rivers playing a real defense for the first time. Mcnair can really handle the blitz, especially after playing against blitzberg for several years. I have to agree though, how can you not get on board at chargers -2.5 early on.

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I think San Diego is a huge suckerbet this week.

This is their first road game, for all intents and purposes. They opened in Oakland which is a 1 hour flight. They destroyed Oakland and Tennessee which are not good teams.

Now they fly across country with a QB starting his 3rd NFL game vs. the Ravens defense at home.
Ravens coming home after a narrow road win vs. a division rival which made them look bad.
This has upset written all over it.
natedogg

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As I said, a controversial pick at -2. Rivers first game v a real D. I got 1 unit down so far. I don't disagree with Nate and at all here. This could be the ATLvNO game of the week, only without Spike Lee in the booth.

wickedgoodtrader · #47 09-26-2006, 02:25 PM

I just loaded up on NO at +7.5... this is toooo ez!

NajdorfDefense · #48 09-26-2006, 02:26 PM

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I like the overs in PHI/GB as this has all the makings of a shootout. I also like San Diego but hate Seattle and i'll probably be going with the Bears on this one.

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I've seen the under as high as U47.5 now, up 2 points. If it goes past 49 I may just middle it.

Performify · #49 09-26-2006, 02:38 PM

Natedogg,

I posted the following (below) in my picks thread. I certainly see the sucker bet aspect as a possiblity, but I honestly think everyone is tremendously overrating Baltimore both offensively and defensively. I also think there's a big difference between a team like Atlanta with some serious offensive questionmarks and the Chargers, who have a tremendous offensive line (when Michael Turner has a 7.6-YPC average, you know the line is doing well) and a run-first offense that also has enough pass balance to keep teams honest.

Baltimore had the #2 defense in the league after week two. We'll see where they stand after rankings are updated for tomorrow, after giving up 300 yards through the air - and two touchdowns - to a very mediocre Browns offense (update: still #2, behind the Chargers).

In short, I think this line is off because the Chargers look very much like the #1 offense they're sporting is legit, and their defense is playing very well, and the Ravens are being overrated.

Yes, the Chargers played two creampuff defensive units in the first two weeks. But the Ravens have also played three creampuff opponents in their first three games: a terrible Tampa Bay team, a horrific Oakland, and then a very mediocre Browns in week three. And the vaunted Ravens defense ceded 300 passing yards and two touchdowns to the Browns, and barely squeeked out a win there.

The Chargers roll in to town with a top defense AND the top offense, and a week's rest. You also have Ravens LB / end Terrell Suggs banged up (hamstring) from the last game, a key playmaker, along with a key offensive option Todd Heap playing through pain (ankle). Compared to a rested, fresh, injury-free Chargers team.

While the Ravens are off to a strong 3-0 start, I strongly expect they get absolutely steamrolled by the Chargers here in week four.

In fact, I think the Ravens are being strongly overrated right now. I'm hearing playoff talks, even talks of postseason success, just because they opened with wins over three cake opponents? The Ravens have a terrible schedule coming up. They face the Chargers this week, then go to Denver, then play the Panthers, at the Saints, and then Cincy. I expect the Ravens drop at least three of these games (Chargers, Panthers, Cincy) and possibly a fourth (at Denver or at New Orleans) and possibly even all five depending on how the Saints look tonight. The Ravens then get a scheduled softball with the Titans, but then play Atlanta, Pitt, @ Cincy, @ KC (who should have Green back by then, or should have Huard acclimated to starting). That's a brutal schedule.

I have the Ravens ending the season at 8-8 from this point, and maybe even 7-9 if they drop one they shouldn't, despite their 3-0 start.

JJguy · #50 09-26-2006, 02:39 PM

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I absolutely LOVE Carolina -2 in teasers this week. Even more so if the Saints win tonight(up 14-3 now). No way New Orleans matches tonights emotion next week on the road.

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For those teasing Carolina to -1.5 or -2, what is the other game that you're teasing?

Do you like Baltimore +8.5?