Monster Draw on the Flop- all in in runraised pot? Party $1

[Osprey]

Is this ok? Caught some grief from the rail for this- short of a set or a pair and a higher flush draw, I can't be in that much trouble, right?

Villain just sat.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($48)
Button ($21)
SB ($74.85)
BB ($149.95)
UTG ($107.10)
UTG+1 ($98.15)
Hiro ($96)
MP2 ($129.22)
MP3 ($239.81)

Preflop: Hiro is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hiro calls $1, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $3</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hiro raises to $14</font>, SB calls $70.85 (All-In), Hiro calls $59.85.

[Nielsio]

Board: 3s Td 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.1609 % 50.06% 00.10% { QsJs }
Hand 2: 49.8391 % 49.74% 00.10% { 99+, 33, T9s, T3s, 93s, T9o, T3o, 93o }

[uminchu]

Board: 9s 3s Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.7517 % 49.64% 00.11% { QsJs }
Hand 2: 50.2483 % 50.13% 00.11% { 99+, 33, AsTs, As9s, As3s, T9s, T3s, 93s, T3o, 93o }


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touche

[younghov17]

call

[LegallyBlind]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 3s Td 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.1609 % 50.06% 00.10% { QsJs }
Hand 2: 49.8391 % 49.74% 00.10% { 99+, 33, T9s, T3s, 93s, T9o, T3o, 93o }

[/ QUOTE ]

villan will also have hands like AsTs, KsTs, ten high flush draw, KsXs, AsXs, 8s7s

[Black winter day]

I found, that in unraised pot, especially when player is in SB and can have any of the 2 pairs or a small set - he will not fold often enough, so pushing with draws here becomes very unprofitable.Basically, you are something like 50/50 against his range, as shown before, so you are flipping coins here for your stack.

I really would raise to something like 9 or even just call.

I used to confuse this matter too, because when it's a raised pot and you flop a straight and flush draw - you are a favorite against any high PP and only vs AKs you are in bad shape, but still have 10 live outs.
Now, if say SB raised to 4 and you call with JQs, and flop comes as it came here, happily get it in if he pushes back, because you are in a good shape against his range and you have some folding equity if you reraise hard or even go allin.
In unraised pots - do not bloat the pot so much with your drawing hands.

Last 2 times i pushed with monster draws when i thought i have a million outs i was actually in a bad shape.

1)I had 64s and the board came 3s45s - pair + OESFD, ZOMG!.
It went raise, reraise and i pushed against a made straight against whom i was less than 50/50.
Second case, i also had JQs flop came x9Ts, also went raise reraise (by another guy) and i pushed - both called, one with AKs and another with 9Ts so i was in a pretty bad shape again.

[ceekay]

Shouldn't this be a no-brainer call if the OP is 50/50 against the villains range, due to the dead money in the pot?

[tannenj]

haha, hiro.

postflop is good. your raise size is a little large, but not a big deal.

bwd, are you suggesting that hero just call villain's flop bet? how is hero supposed to know villain will push over the flop raise? very often, villain will fold; that's makes this a super-profitable semi-bluff.

[Black winter day]

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't this be a no-brainer call if the OP is 50/50 against the villains range, due to the dead money in the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is in it already, then of course it's a call.
What i suggested is that he won't reraise so big that it would commit him to call a push, cause SB probably has the best hand right now.
Nothing wrong with a call or a reraise to 9, IMO.
The pot is so small, that i see no reason to commit your stack to win it being 50/50ish.

[Black winter day]

[ QUOTE ]
haha, hiro.

postflop is good. your raise size is a little large, but not a big deal.

bwd, are you suggesting that hero just call villain's flop bet? how is hero supposed to know villain will push over the flop raise? very often, villain will fold; that's makes this a super-profitable semi-bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what do we won, like 6$ with this semibluff?
Hero didn't know villain will push, but that raise was way too big.
If villain has 2 pairs, he won't get away from them if hero hits a straight, he will pay off a flush to some extent as well.

People confuse raised and not raised pots.
This one is not worth getting your stack in the middle with a draw and very little folding equity.
Now, let's say hero raises to 9, villain pushes.
We now assume that he has at least 2 pairs, may-be a set.
Im don't know i am ready to gambool here for my stack.
It may make a very small EV to call now (could someone make an exact calculations in case of a raise to 9 and villain's push?), but as i said before - i am personally willing to let very small edges that highly increase the variance go.

There is not a single poker player that will continue playing exactly the same way after being stack over nothing (you still get a little agitated at least and it will affect your A game a little for sure), so i prefer playing smallball tactic.

Now, if it's a raised pot, i am happily sticking it in there, knowing, i am in a decent shape against his overpair, and i will play a set the same way, so i want villains to see that my hand range is wider.