SUPERBOWL GOES INTO OVERTIME.

[DougOzzzz]

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none of the first 40 super bowls went into overtime. only 10 games have even been decided by 7 points or less. if this year happens to be the first, then it would make the odds 40-1, or -4000. so betting the "yes" has virtually no value with that much juice. the "no" is definitely playable at -1000, though no one's gonna get rich laying stuff like that in the long run.

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If I could find 1 bet a day with a price of -1000 and "true" odds of -4000, I assure you I would get rich.

[legend42]

I have 23 OT games in 2003, maybe you have an old reference. I think over the past 30 years, only a little more than 6% of all games have gone to OT, but it's about 8.3% over the past ten years (maybe a product of parity, or just variation).

In any case, the public loves to bet YES on this one no matter the price, I think the sharps mostly lay off, and it's not the kind of bet that attracts the bridge jumpers. So the NO is almost always a good overlay.

I personally stopped betting it a few years ago when I had $500 laid on NO at -1000, and Mike Jones stopped Andre Dyson about 18 inches short of OT land. There are far healthier ways to make 50 bucks. (And after watching 2 of the last 4 SBs go to the final 5 seconds of regulation with the score tied, I think any money I would have made on the prop would have gone towards ulcer surgery)

[Scruff]

One thing, all NFL games is not a good sample - as that includes many games that have huge spreads and I would think would be less likely to go to OT. I would think that two good teams playing each other would have a higher chance of going to OT than a typical game. I think it's an abberration that we're 0-for-40.

Would it be possible to find out the % of games with a 3.5 to 5.5 spread that went to OT?