Falcons @ Saints pick (YTD 3-0 +3.26 )

[Lori]

Link to previous pick

Sadly this pick has BSP written all over it, but I still couldn't resist at the odds on offer.

Obviously the pregame show at NO is going to get the crowd into this one.
The Saints are 2-0 this season and have yet to play at home. Now I can hear people screaming at me that "They haven't played anyone". Well that's kind of right, however, as the cliche goes, "You can only beat what's put in front of you"

The Saints got off to a slow start last week, and that is of some concern to me, however I can't envisage a situation where they won't be up for this one.

The Falcons look okay and have gone about their business as maybe a little overrated, but they're still getting it done and I expect them to attempt to grind down the Saints.

All three of the Falcons opening drives in week one were over four minutes (4:45, 5:38, 4:11) and two last week (5:09, 1:55, 7:40)

The Saints control the clock less well, all four of their TD drives last week were under 4 minutes.

So putting this together, I think it will be a good match with the Falcons grinding and the Saints throwing it around.
So where can I find something that I feel resembles an edge?

Well, if the Saints start with the ball, it's entirely possible that the Falcons will only complete one drive in the first quarter. In fact, even if the Falcons start with the ball, they might only get one completed drive in too.
With all the noise in the stadium, the Saints will be playing hard in the first quarter and the Falcons offense is going to find it hard to hear instructions.

Finally, I feel the Falcons may even elect to kick if they win the toss, and although I doubt it's a big chance, I think there's a chance.

My pick in this one therefore is First Quarter, Saints +0.5 -115 currently at Pinnacle.

(Have to like a bet where you can win without scoring)

I'll continue with the same staking plan, so I'll be betting one unit to win 0.87 (please allow me the extra 0.04).

Lori

[.Alex.]

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, I feel the Falcons may even elect to kick if they win the toss, and although I doubt it's a big chance, I think there's a chance.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not to be nitty, but unlike college (and Madden), teams in the NFL will never elect to kick because according to the rules, the loser of the coin flip chooses first in the second half. Therefore, the losing team will simply receive the ball both halves.

[Shipwreck]

Not to be nitty, but unlike college (and Madden), teams in the NFL will never elect to kick because according to the rules, the loser of the coin flip chooses first in the second half. Therefore, the losing team will simply receive the ball both halves.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? Since when? Maybe I don't get what you mean but opening possession has altered my entire football life.

[Performify]

But what they can do is chose to defer to the second half, meaning Falcons will end up kicking the ball away. Same result, if its not called "elect to kick" its still electing to kick by their action of chosing to defer.

[Shipwreck]

Oh and good luck Lori, interesting anaylasis. I have an idea though about your first half betting. I feel emberassed not knowing but like who are the team captains in the nfl? Wouldn't it make sense that if it's a linebacker or something he would elect to kick and that way he (who is all fired up) can get out there and hit something? I just imagine if it's a qb that's calling the coin toss then he'll want the ball. From what I can tell it always looks like a committee, but I don't know that they even show the coin toss on tv anymore. But yeah I think if you can find out what side of the ball the captains are on it might affect your chances of getting your desired kick or recieve, if you follow my rambling.

That and I believe weather conditions play a big role in what side they take on the kickoff. If it's chicago where the wind is hell most teams are inclined to pick a play that gives them the wind in the fourth quarter, picking to take a side and kick it. Just food for thought.

[.Alex.]

[ QUOTE ]
But what they can do is chose to defer to the second half, meaning Falcons will end up kicking the ball away. Same result, if its not called "elect to kick" its still electing to kick by their action of chosing to defer.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is true. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

http://www.nfl.com/fans/rules/cointoss

[Levarkin]

Your interpretation of the rules appears to be correct, but perhaps the Saints (in the event that they lose the toss) would choose to kick instead of receive in the second half for the same reason that the Falcons would in the first, i.e. sportsmanship.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But what they can do is chose to defer to the second half, meaning Falcons will end up kicking the ball away. Same result, if its not called "elect to kick" its still electing to kick by their action of chosing to defer.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is true. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

http://www.nfl.com/fans/rules/cointoss

[/ QUOTE ]

Hrmmm. Interesting. I guess I didn't know that the "defer" rule only applied to NCAA.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Finally, I feel the Falcons may even elect to kick if they win the toss, and although I doubt it's a big chance, I think there's a chance.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not to be nitty, but unlike college (and Madden), teams in the NFL will never elect to kick because according to the rules, the loser of the coin flip chooses first in the second half. Therefore, the losing team will simply receive the ball both halves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for that, nittiness is good when it clearly points out a reason that analysis is wrong.

I'll still count this as a pick (I doubt I'd get my money back [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ) as I feel that the Falcons will score at the start of the 2nd quarter more often than the end of the first quarter. It's a blow to what I percieved as a bonus to the bet though.

I went through about 20 of the other games this season before posting this, and all recieved, I thought this might be different due to the exceptional circumstances, but cirucmventing the rules might prove to be difficult.
(Maybe we can have some officials from last year's playoffs [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] )

Lori

[Lori]

I'm not going to change previous picks, but is it more standard to bet TO WIN 1 unit if you are betting minus numbers?

I may change this and future posts to represent that if I'm happy that that's a more sensible method pre-game.

Lori