TPTK, valuebet on the river? 100NL 6 max

Jehi · #1 09-23-2006, 02:41 PM

Villain is 26/10 over a good samplesize. I've been playing quite laggy on this table, 47/32 or so. On the turn I figured villain has weakish top pair or a draw because the bet was begging for a cheap river. Would you valuebet the river and how much?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($66.73)
BB ($116)
UTG ($113.50)
MP ($26.05)
Hero ($96.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB calls $7.

Turn: ($22.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero raises to $36, BB calls $24.

River: ($94.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ??

Jehi · #2 09-23-2006, 02:45 PM

Forgot the aggression of the villain, he had around 40-50% aggression frequency on both flop and turn and 2,45 AF

Dumle · #3 09-23-2006, 04:26 PM

Even with your image I don't see him calling with many hands you beat. I check it down.

Dumle

Duck Rabbit · #4 09-23-2006, 05:01 PM

I don't know how reliable agression frequency is. You probably need a hell of a lot of hands on someone before you can make assumptions about the player.

I just check the river here. Not too many hands that he'll call you with here that you beat.

EMc · #5 09-23-2006, 05:12 PM

I think given your image you are missing some value not betting the river, but that J does give QJ a higher 2 pair. It really comes down to a question of variance, as this is a slim bet.

sdfsdf · #6 09-23-2006, 05:21 PM

VB that [censored], make it $30, his line is screaming weak queen here

OMGTILTING · #7 09-23-2006, 05:27 PM

I could live with both checking behind and a value bet.

Jehi · #8 09-23-2006, 05:38 PM

Duck Rabbit, I have over 1000 hands on him and I think AFQ is better than AF when making decisions because AFQ takes folding into account.

Jamougha · #9 09-23-2006, 05:42 PM

I would make a much larger raise on the turn. It seems unlikely that you're behind on the river unless he has a freak like K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so I value bet.