AQo on a sweet and sour flop. - Page 4

gopnik · #31 09-22-2006, 02:36 PM

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I urge any of you value raising proponents to come up with hand ranges for these two where we have 40% equity on the flop.

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Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the button and K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for BB

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that ain't a hand range bud, that's a hope and a dream

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Actually, unless one of them already flopped a flush, we always have at least 40% equity on this flop.

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a set and a flush draw will put us at around 2-1. I said this earlier, but if button has TT+/AK and donker has either a nut flush or a nut flush draw we have 35% equity (and shoot to 50 on a brick turn).

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one of them has a set:

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Kh Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qd 476 52.71 289 32.00 138 15.28 0.594
Ac Kd 1 0.11 764 84.61 138 15.28 0.068
Ks Kc 288 31.89 565 62.57 50 5.54 0.337

both of them have a flush draw:
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Kh Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qd 453 50.17 326 36.10 124 13.73 0.570
Kd Ah 269 29.79 558 61.79 76 8.42 0.339
Ks Qh 45 4.98 782 86.60 76 8.42 0.091

worst case scenerio: one of them has a flush draw and the other one has a set:

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Kh Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qd 300 33.22 551 61.02 52 5.76 0.360
Kd Ah 271 30.01 580 64.23 52 5.76 0.328
Ks Kc 280 31.01 619 68.55 4 0.44 0.312

we are still ahead.

adsman · #32 09-22-2006, 02:46 PM

gopnik,

Can you run those numbers again on the Turn after a complete blank hits, like 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. What is our equity now with only one more card to dodge?

gopnik · #33 09-22-2006, 02:59 PM

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gopnik,

Can you run those numbers again on the Turn after a complete blank hits, like 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. What is our equity now with only one more card to dodge?

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it's a lot better. But so what? These guys are not going anywhere on the turn and BB might not bet again if the turn blanks and you won't be able to raise. Plus, half the time you won't be able to raise the turn because of some sh.tty card. I really don't think "waiting until the turn" to raise applies here because our flop equity is pretty big and the huge chance that BB won't bet again on the turn.

adsman · #34 09-22-2006, 03:15 PM

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it's a lot better. But so what?

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Dude, you can't just fobb relevant info off like that. It makes it seem like you're emotionally tied to this discussion, which means that you're only interested in being right, not in actually trying to work out which of the two options is better.

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Plus, half the time you won't be able to raise the turn because of some sh.tty card.

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Correct. With this in mind, can you then explain why you want to go throwing a heap of bets in on the flop?

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I really don't think "waiting until the turn" to raise applies here because our flop equity is pretty big and the huge chance that BB won't bet again on the turn.

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What 'huge' chance? Where do you get that from? How have you come up with that information? I really liked the work you did with the equity layout but this is just pulling random crap out of the nether-regions which does nothing to support your argument.

gopnik · #35 09-22-2006, 03:31 PM

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it's a lot better. But so what?

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Dude, you can't just fobb relevant info off like that. It makes it seem like you're emotionally tied to this discussion, which means that you're only interested in being right, not in actually trying to work out which of the two options is better.

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Plus, half the time you won't be able to raise the turn because of some sh.tty card.

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Correct. With this in mind, can you then explain why you want to go throwing a heap of bets in on the flop?

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I really don't think "waiting until the turn" to raise applies here because our flop equity is pretty big and the huge chance that BB won't bet again on the turn.

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What 'huge' chance? Where do you get that from? How have you come up with that information? I really liked the work you did with the equity layout but this is just pulling random crap out of the nether-regions which does nothing to support your argument.

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you are right. But I cannot come up with anything else [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Guruman · #36 09-22-2006, 05:34 PM

Here's my issue with waiting until the turn: we won't get action unless we're dead or in trouble.

Another issue:

while its true that our equity changes on the turn vs a flush draw, its not true that we're up against a flush draw 100% of the time here. In fact, we're just about never up against a flush from the button given his action.

when we're not up against a flush draw we need to get bets in now before the scare card hits. when we are, we need to charge it now.

jba · #37 09-22-2006, 05:37 PM

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worst case scenerio: one of them has a flush draw and the other one has a set:

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you dont think there's a chance we're drawing dead?

Guruman · #38 09-22-2006, 06:37 PM

hey adam, what was the rest of the action?

Reynard · #39 09-23-2006, 12:04 AM

You most likely have the best hand now. Your hand is vulnerable. So play it fast - raise!

It's also very likely that we're showing this down.

The monsters under the bed will always be there if you look for them.

Johnny#5 · #40 09-23-2006, 02:59 AM

Gas the hell out of the flop. Raise and cap a 3-bet. Very unlikely anyone flopped a flush on that board. If donked into on blank turn ... I guess start calling, though I really wanna throw one more raise in here somewhere. Getting 3-bet on the turn would be extremely, extremely sucky though. I suppose you could be getting freerolled by another AQ but I think it's more likely you're gonna see two-pair, pair + Ah hands, stuff like that. Make them pay. A set/2 pair cannot flush you, make those hands pay. You're ahead of them. Stick it to that Ah too. A lone Qh will put in a lot of bets too. In short it's gonna take a lot of convincing to make me think I don't have the best of it on this board cause a lot of worse hands will give you a lot of action.