Chip leader with 30xBB ITM: am I supposed to exploit this?

[uclabruinz]

WTF, there's some bad stuff going on in this thread.

If Betgo's read is that SB is pushing any two, he's 58-41 against that range and getting favorable pot odds. If he's not pushing any two, then assign a range and calculate. If it's +EV, call. Jesus, we're getting better then 2:1 if I am reading this correctly. This is a very, very easy call.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
He wants to learn how to, man. Lead the way, one of ya.

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Um, play poker. Concentrate hard on getting reads because understanding equity/ranges is going to be crucial. You have to look to call any equitable edge, like shorty pushes from MP, folds to you on button, look at the blinds/antes and think about what equity you're getting if you push against his range (taking into account reads on blinds).

I mean, play poker. Really with a big stack late you're looking to pick off any edge and maximize FE, particularly against medium stacks that are playing scared. It's all about flow in the late game. Constantly be aware of how others may be perceiving you, etc.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]

If Betgo's read is that SB is pushing any two, he's 58-41 against that range and getting favorable pot odds. If he's not pushing any two, then assign a range and calculate. If it's +EV, call. Jesus, we're getting better then 2:1 if I am reading this correctly. This is a very, very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you here, but if the SB is open-pushing 9x BB, betgo's getting at best getting something like 1.5:1 from the pot (assuming the antes are big and sum up to ~1.5 BBs, which would make the pot 12 BBs [antes + SB + 9 BBs + betgo's BB] with betgo having to call 8 BBs to win it).

That said, if he's pushing even just the top 40% of hands, calling is probably slightly +EV here. Is it more +EV to fold and use your 30 BB stack to bully (by which I mean steal/resteal/play poker and win pots postflop)? That seems to be the more interesting question, though I hate passing up any edge ever, so I'm tempted to say "no."

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling with QJo doesn't exactly constitute bullying. After all of your past success I'm surprised you don't understand this concept.

Bullying means raising more to steal blinds, reraising light raisers who have left themselves room to fold comfortably and generally putting people to the decision to play for their whole stack when they clearly don't want to. A guy who shoves in 9bb is already willing to go to the felt so calling with a marginal hand like Queen-high doesn't fit in here. When you lose the hand you can't bully as much plus you have the added negative effect of completely ruining your image. Now you have to tighten up considerably for at least a few orbits at the risk of being looked up by more marginal holdings.

On the bright side if you happen to pickup a monster afterward you're more likely to get paid off.

KQo isn't a hand I would recommend shoving 14BB in with. You can definitely raise and fold to a reraise from a player in the blinds that covers you.

All things being considered I really don't like how you played here and don't see this as a winning strategy.

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Hey, punk, I didn't say calling with QJo was bullying. I said that I didn't try to bully the table. I called with QJo because I thought I was ahead of pot odds versus SB's range.

As far as the KQo hand, the push was also marginal. I could raise and fold to a reraise, but a lot of times the reraise is from a hand I am slightly behind (A2-AJ, 22-JJ) or ahead of. I was only pushing into 4 players. I think if I raise, it is close whether I should call a reraise. Most people wouldn't push there, but I am not sure it is a bad play.

I could have made loose open raises, but I have 30xBB in 1st place, moving down to 4th place with 30-35 players left, and I have about twice the average stack. the table was not tight and steal raises work only if they steal the blinds. My question was partly if I should try more to bully or exploit the big stack.

[weimoxer]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF, there's some bad stuff going on in this thread.

If Betgo's read is that SB is pushing any two, he's 58-41 against that range and getting favorable pot odds. If he's not pushing any two, then assign a range and calculate. If it's +EV, call. Jesus, we're getting better then 2:1 if I am reading this correctly. This is a very, very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may have missed where he said this, but I dont recall him saying he could be pushing any two?? 33% of your stack without a read with 2 connected mid broadways.. He did say earlier if the table is weak/tight, which tells me the range is tighter according to his comment about a previous thread.

By the way, I am not being sarcastic, but I really thought I may have missed it, or a comment made in the thread. Just reread it and it could come off a bit that way.

[uclabruinz]

Yeah, I got that math wrong, wasn't paying attention. But my point was, call for any equitable edge. Fold if no edge. In that particular hand, it all depends on Betgo's read of villain.

But this is not a situation where I pass up on an edge because there is more implied equity in doing so. I don't think I'm all that much more potent with 30 BBs then I am with 20 BBs. And don't forget the obvious possibility that we have 40 BBs after making the call. How much implied equity does that have?

It is an interesting question, and in general I am quite high on the concept of implied equity. But this is not a situation where it really comes into play for me much. I'm just trying to accumulate here, and having an edge that even if you lose leaves you with 20 BBs is a great way to do it.

[FortunaMaximus]

Always am. Just catching up on the smaller details. It's raw but it needs honing.

It's well nigh impossible for me to define an equity range for an individual hand without oversight.

Yeah, I play poker. Crunch the numbers afterward, I'm rarely surprised. it's the 2-4% edge swings I need to finetune. It's siphoning the flow and knowin' how fine to keep the mesh relative to the table I got a grasp on. And it's improving.

Shorter stacks = tighter opening standards and more reliance on pure math. Bigger stacks, less so for longer stretches. I'd rather play ROSE instead of HORSE. Or a bigger rotation.

Ain't an overnight process and I'm fine with that. The time I put in will get me there on the right path.

That's why I'm here instead of elsewhere. I tl;dr a lot of posts and cut to the chase, or jump in first, lately. But that's for a reason. I do go back and walk through it again after firing out my first read.

And who crunches the math better than this forum?

Basic thing for no-style poker, for me. There's justification in my mistakes, and that's learnin' from them. I'm catching up on the gaps. No substitute for experience, and that you can't really read in a book. It's a good book though. And I got a thick skin.

Thanks.

[Superfluous Man]

Meh, I think the KQ push is fine, especially against blinds that are likely to resteal. Raise/folding preflop is kinda gross unless you're pretty sure the people left to act are incredibly incapable of restealing. Putting in 20% of your stack and then folding when you can't be sure if you're a favorite (is he pushing air/KJ ever?), coinflip (fairly likely, given that a blind will push some non-dominating aces and a lot of pairs < QQ here) or a big dog strikes me as very, very exploitable.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF, there's some bad stuff going on in this thread.

If Betgo's read is that SB is pushing any two, he's 58-41 against that range and getting favorable pot odds. If he's not pushing any two, then assign a range and calculate. If it's +EV, call. Jesus, we're getting better then 2:1 if I am reading this correctly. This is a very, very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may have missed where he said this, but I dont recall him saying he could be pushing any two?? 33% of your stack without a read with 2 connected mid broadways.. He did say earlier if the table is weak/tight, which tells me the range is tighter according to his comment about a previous thread.

By the way, I am not being sarcastic, but I really thought I may have missed it, or a comment made in the thread. Just reread it and it could come off a bit that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah, as I said, it all depends on the read, his range, etc. And I did have the pot odds off. Still, the point isn't this hand. I do think it's probably a call, but would have to stove it. Villain's range is usually quite large here. Most good players are pushing almost any two.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF, there's some bad stuff going on in this thread.

If Betgo's read is that SB is pushing any two, he's 58-41 against that range and getting favorable pot odds. If he's not pushing any two, then assign a range and calculate. If it's +EV, call. Jesus, we're getting better then 2:1 if I am reading this correctly. This is a very, very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This must have been covered many times on this forum but why would I want to call off 1/3 of my stack as a marginal favourite here. SB is rarely open pushing any two. For the sake of argument, let's assume that we are a 53% favourite against his range. With the money in the pot, we should call. More or less 50% of the time, we have 21BBs afterwards, the other 50% of the time, we have 40BBs.

We're in the money. I like having 40BBs ITM, but I don't think my $ expectation increases substantially by having 40BBs as against having 30BBs, whereas having 21BBs is going to kind of suck.

I know this runs against forum dogma but forum dogma, in this respect, hasn't done much for my MTT game so please explain why my thinking is flawed or point me in the right direction so I can see the light.

Of course, if we're getting 2:1 then it's an easy, easy call. But I think Betgo was talking about a BSB so I can't see how we're getting 2:1.