Battle of the Blinds 1/2 6-max

[Aaron W.]

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No hand that UTG could reasonably have that could call correctly if we called would fold if we raised.

It's silly to protect your equity in a pot this small against a player who is likely folding (or calling incorrectly) anyway.

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UTG is getting 5:1. Closing the action against two other players with perfect position against the aggressor, UTG can peel here with as little as two overs and a strong one card backdoor flush draw.

Also, the raise here isn't necessarily for protection, but for value against an aggressive player who may also be betting nothing more than a couple overs and a backdoor flush draw.

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Your hand just isn't strong enough to raise the flop for value even if SB goes hard on draws.

Also, that he goes hard on draws doesn't mean is retarded. His 3-bet here is def. bad news for us.

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It is, in fact, strong enough to raise. Given the read and the ultra-low board and the fact that an ace has a gutshot to add to its draw, I think villain donks a very wide range of hands, none of which are in serious trouble against hero, but many of which regularly lose to hero.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2087479
pokenum -h 3h 4d - ac 9s -- 5d 2c 4c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4c 2c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4d 3h 748 75.56 222 22.42 20 2.02 0.766
9s Ac 222 22.42 748 75.56 20 2.02 0.234

Villain in SB is not very wrong to push a flush draw here, because he probably has two overcards with his flush draw, which gives him decent pot equity, so I don't think it's definitely bad news (it's certainly not good news). Hero is actually a small dog to a flush draw and two overs:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2087469
pokenum -h 3h 4d - 9c 7c -- 5d 2c 4c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4c 2c 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
4d 3h 482 48.69 502 50.71 6 0.61 0.490
9c 7c 502 50.71 482 48.69 6 0.61 0.510

[Aaron W.]

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If you're capping in this spot based on this read, you should *NEVER* take a free card.

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I'm not so sure about that.

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Here's what you said above:

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As far as the cap goes, Hero's read is that SB is very aggro with draws. This board is pretty drawy, so I'm not willing to concede that we're behind. And capping will sometimes get us a free card.

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You cap because you're not willing to concede that you're behind. Now a relatively blankish card like an offsuit 7 falls and he checks to you. How does that change your opinion of your hand? You should be far more inclined to bet this turn than you are to cap the flop, because on the flop your edge against overcards and flush draws and other hands that villain might be pushing is much smaller than it is on the turn.

[CFaug]

So given that I capped the flopped should I have bet the turn and not taken the free card??