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#31
09-20-2006, 11:05 PM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How did you conclude that he obviously doesn't have KK/QQ/JJ with a heart? [/ QUOTE ] He would've reraised the min-raise by UTG preflop. Nit TAG (SB) never just calls a min-raise preflop with JJ+. [/ QUOTE ] I see it with JJ/QQ for sure. Not with KK/AA unless they are in their frisky mode (ie I'm pissing them off). 
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#33
09-20-2006, 11:42 PM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
How does the fact that sb is getting 9:1 implied odds on his call of utg's min-raise affect his range? (I realize this barely justifies calling for set value, as long as he can be about 85% certain he will get the rest of utg's stack in on the flop if he gets there.) Shouldn't this tighten his range up? He also has to play the hand out of position once you come in for the 3-bet. Shouldn't this tighen it up as well? I would think that this would make the big pairs with hearts more likely.
Maybe all of this was implied in the other posts, I am just thinking out loud.
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#34
09-21-2006, 12:10 AM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
easy call / very easy call If Villain has a hand better than Ah why doesn't he push? True [/ QUOTE ] To get value from Ah? Would Ah call a $200 bet into a $122 pot on a paired board w/ 4 to a straight flush? Call > fold > raise
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#35
09-21-2006, 12:26 AM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
I would call. What hands would the sb call a raise and a reraise with. 46h, 69h, probably j10h. If he had j10h, wouldn't he raise the turn knowing any heart except the 9h would would give you the nut flush? He could also have 78, and made his full house. $66 to win $186 sounds cheap enough.
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#36
09-21-2006, 12:33 AM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
I vote call. I can reason a raise here in alot of situations, but if he's a nit, I hate his call on the flop enough to be relegated to a crying caller...damn those nits and their ABC poker!!!
okay, going to read responses to see how wrong I am now...
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#37
09-21-2006, 12:35 AM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
i think we are behind here a lot. but still less than 28% of the time. It could be the 6h.. but i think a set of 5s, 8s, or even quad 7s. perhaps villian has 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 or T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T or even J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J.
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#39
09-21-2006, 07:34 AM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
Can every1 saying call at least give a likely range. Or at least give a range we're ahead of 28% of the time.
I can barely see one single hand we're ahead of, let alone 28% of his range. A TAG with nitty tendancies will seriously always rr JJ+ to a MINRAISE preflop, or at least will rr 80%+ of the time. And if for some reason he does have JhJx, why the hell is he leading the river?
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#40
09-21-2006, 07:35 AM
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Re: Nut flush = easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
Can every1 saying call at least give a likely range. Or at least give a range we're ahead of 28% of the time. I can barely see one single hand we're ahead of, let alone 28% of his range. A TAG with nitty tendancies will seriously always rr JJ+ to a MINRAISE preflop, or at least will rr 80%+ of the time. And if for some reason he does have JhJx, why the hell is he leading the river? [/ QUOTE ] I guess you hate these nit vs nit situations True
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