99 UTG. do I call two all in bets here?

fourpin · #1 09-20-2006, 07:21 PM

I am afraid I have backed myself into a corner here. By raising preflop I am in a position to be either a substantial chip leader or a cripple.
Advice will be valued both pre and post flop.

Live $50 buy-in, 100+ player tourney with $10 bounties on all players.
Blinds are $200-$400 (20 minute rounds) and go to $300-$500 next hand
Avg stack size at my table is $3600. A couple tough late position players with 6k-7k in chips will definately make my life miserable if I just limp in.
I have $3100 in chips
UTG+1 also has $3100
MP has $1700

I wake up UTG with 99 and raise to $1500 (3XBB raises were being called by too many)
UTG+1 reraises to $3100 (all in)
All fold to MP who calls all in for $1700
Folded around to me. ($6900 in pot)
I have $1600 behind, My next move is...

UTG+1 is a tight passive little old lady. She made one "Hail Mary" raise from UTG when she very was short stacked (she held J9s).
I assume her reraise all in means a huge pair, maybe KK but probably AA.

MP is a loose passive calling station. He hasn't made a bet of his own since the tournament start. My guess is he has 2 broadway cards and sees a good chance to triple up.

If I am HU with UTG+1 this is an easy (but painful) fold. With MP in the pot + the dead money from the blinds I think I have 4.3:1 odds to catch my set by the river. If I fold I won't have enough chips to play more than one circuit.

eBo · #2 09-20-2006, 07:33 PM

You're getting 6300-1600 odds, meaning that you would call even if you knew your opponent had AA.

Also, push your 99 UTG.

fourpin · #3 09-20-2006, 08:17 PM

Are you suggesting an all in raise pre flop instead of the half stack raise I made?

FortunaMaximus · #4 09-20-2006, 09:20 PM

Why, yes, he seems to be.

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold I won't have enough chips to play more than one circuit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why risk half your stack with 99 then?

Edit: If they were black nines, then I see why you would do that.

durkahdurkah · #5 09-21-2006, 09:48 AM

The only plays you really have with that hand considering the blinds and your stack is to either push or fold PF.

Given the way this played out, you need to call this and expect to be a 4-1 underdog like 95% of the time, which given the odds is ok. You really can't make a half-stack raise and expect to fold after action...