New guy question

[The Truth]

I am new to this sports betting thing.

I would like to know something about the books.

Is the goal of Las Vegas Sports consultants to get 50% of all money on each side of given game? Or do they try to use their superior knowledge of the teams and their knowledge of public opinion to make the house more than the vig.

In other words, will they set the line at +5 when they know that the true line is probably around +12 simply because they know that more people will bet the other way, and they will make the house more money?


My opinion is that they try to get 50% on each side, however I have been told by sports guys that I know that this isnt the case.

Is this similar to "party is rigged" theories?


thanks alot
blake

[rjp]

Sportsbooks don't gamble, but they are willing to take on some risk when a game has a lot of one sided action. It's not rigged, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Performify]

In theory, a book would love balanced action (50-50 on each side) but in practice it doesn't happen.

Ultimately, it really doesn't matter. With Vegas lines of -110 or worse, a very high percentage of people can't overcome the juice long term to win, regardless of balanced action. So while a Vegas sports book may in theory experience revenue swings when a large public favorite covers one weekend, they're going to be a long term winner every time simply because of that rip they're taking from every bettor. In short, just like Party, they don't have to rig things: they're taking a rip from every pot, they just want to see a lot of volume.

What you talk about, with a book taking a position on a game, that's certainly a part of it. Linesmakers know a certainly amount of people are going to bet on Notre Dame, or Indy, regardless of where they set the line, for example. So that fact gets factored in to the line that's ultimately set... but in general these days, books can't risk hanging a rouge line by taking an extreme position on a game, because they'll get slammed from "scalpers" - people hammering at that rouge line and offsetting the action elsewhere to lock in a guranteed profit.

This is covered in brief in the FAQ in the question "how do the books make money?". I'll take a look at expanding that answer...

[The Truth]

[ QUOTE ]
In theory, a book would love balanced action (50-50 on each side) but in practice it doesn't happen.

Ultimately, it really doesn't matter. With Vegas lines of -110 or worse, a very high percentage of people can't overcome the juice long term to win, regardless of balanced action. So while a Vegas sports book may in theory experience revenue swings when a large public favorite covers one weekend, they're going to be a long term winner every time simply because of that rip they're taking from every bettor. In short, just like Party, they don't have to rig things: they're taking a rip from every pot, they just want to see a lot of volume.

What you talk about, with a book taking a position on a game, that's certainly a part of it. Linesmakers know a certainly amount of people are going to bet on Notre Dame, or Indy, regardless of where they set the line, for example. So that fact gets factored in to the line that's ultimately set... but in general these days, books can't risk hanging a rouge line by taking an extreme position on a game, because they'll get slammed from "scalpers" - people hammering at that rouge line and offsetting the action elsewhere to lock in a guranteed profit.

This is covered in brief in the FAQ in the question "how do the books make money?". I'll take a look at expanding that answer...

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't LV sports consultants set the line for all the casinos? If so, they aren't setting a rogue line, they would be setting a line to make the casinos the most money, thus having the public lose the most.

For instance, since they know alot more people are going to bet on notre dame thant he other team, do they move the line to the disadvantage of the notre dame bettor.

Is this move an attempt to make it closer to 50/50 money on each side, or is this move an attempt to put the line somewhere different than what they think the true line is in order to give the house a higher +ev shot.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't LV sports consultants set the line for all the casinos? If so, they aren't setting a rogue line, they would be setting a line to make the casinos the most money, thus having the public lose the most.

For instance, since they know alot more people are going to bet on notre dame thant he other team, do they move the line to the disadvantage of the notre dame bettor.

Is this move an attempt to make it closer to 50/50 money on each side, or is this move an attempt to put the line somewhere different than what they think the true line is in order to give the house a higher +ev shot.

[/ QUOTE ]
if you read the corresponding chapter in Wong's SSB book, this is definitely the strategy of certain linesmakers, though not necessarily the prevailing one.

for instance, a super-sharp operation like Pinnacle will intentionally overshade a line to attract money from virtually any source, whether it be contrarian line shoppers or high-limit scalpers. they presumably don't care if the action becomes unbalanced because they will gladly offer any reasonable price for the side that they believe is going to lose.

but at the same time, not every sportsbook operation wants to gamble, or is capable of doing so successfully. however, they are probably at the mercy of superior handicapping by their competitors. they would stand pat against Pinnacle and other's moves at their own peril.

[MatusowIsBald]

I think typically the books do like to have 50/50 action, but sometimes they will tip their hand a bit. A good example is the ND/Michigan game last week. The public was on ND and yet the line dropped like a rock all week. It's pretty telling when that happens. Another example was the Jets and Titans in week 1. The public was all over the Titans and yet, if I remember correctly, it was down to a pick 'em before kickoff.

[rjp]

One thing to keep in mind is that the book tries to balance the money, not the wagers.

Just because the "public" aka majority is on one side doesn't mean that's where the most money is at!

[The Truth]

Awesome thanks for all the responses guys.

1 more follow up.

Is there anyway I can check figures. Can I see how much money the books got on each side of games for past year or something?

Any public data available for this?

[rjp]

No one provides the only important statistic: actual money bet.