UFC 63 9/23/06

[Recliner]

[ QUOTE ]
BJ will look impressive in the first round, gas and then get dominated for the rest of the fight. Hughes is biger, stronger, and better conditioned. When was the last time BJ looked really impressive for more than 5 minutes in a fight? Its going on 4 years now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I found this thread on Sherdog. It is an interview with with BJ Penn. From the interview he says that his training has been horrible, he's going to train extra hard for the month leading up to the fight and he plans to stay at his current weight of 167/168.

From that I'm going to assume that:
1. Matt Hughes is going to come into the fight with far better conditioning as his training and team is better than Penn's in addition to having been preparing for the fight for a longer time period.

2. Hughes is going to drop weight, while it doesn't sound like Penn is going to. Hughes is going to come in somewhere around 185-190 with a minimal amount of fatigue.

3. Hughes is coming into this fight, much stronger than Penn.

If Penn actually has a skill advantage I don't think it can make up for the physical differences. Plus Hughes is a smart fighter and isn't going to leave himself open for a submission by Penn. I think Penn is going to spend most of the fight on his back and it is going to end as a TKO in round 3 or 4.

[Performify]

Are you reading the same article that I did yesterday morning? The one that says, in part:

[ QUOTE ]
He also said that he has been training harder for this fight than he has in quite some time.

"I'm in phenomenal shape," he explained. "For my last couple of fights, I had just been doing long-distance slow running. It really doesn't pay off in the ring. You need to be able to explode for five minutes and you've got to keep being able to explode. I just keep changing my training around. But you know -- even if people consider me the true champion -- if I had gone into the ring in the shape I was in for the (St. Pierre) fight, I would have gotten a rude awakening. I learned what I learned from the last fight how the judges are going to score the fight and all the different stuff that's going on. But Hughes is fighting Superman now. This fight is for me. It would be good to bring the belt back to the islands so Hilo can have a world champion."

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI here it is from the source:
http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/...s/sports02.txt
you can hit www.bugmenot.com for a username/password if you don't want to register...

[Performify]

and for the record: I grabbed as much Hughes as I could when it opened at -105 and again around -135 when they raised the limits.

I will be leveraging all of that to have a risk free shot on Penn, as I think the line is already off and expect it to climb further to the neighborhood of +250 Penn prefight.

I fully expect BJ Penn to win this fight.

But then again, I'm still of the opinion that the Penn/GSP fight should have been a draw at worst, given that the first round should have been scored 10-8.

[TRBNGR]

Swick vs Crow, should be a really good fight (might be the best fight of the night), If Swick opens up as an underdog I'll be all over it.

Gorgel has over a 90% chance of winning, imho, Danny is a tae-kwon-do instructor with no ground game at all. This could be the easiest fight on the card to call.

Evans will win is his normal boring fashion. I can't see Lambert avoiding the takedown all night.

I really dont think Penn can win a 5 round fight with Matt, and I dont think he will catch Matt the way he did in the first fight.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
and for the record: I grabbed as much Hughes as I could when it opened at -105 and again around -135 when they raised the limits.

I will be leveraging all of that to have a risk free shot on Penn, as I think the line is already off and expect it to climb further to the neighborhood of +250 Penn prefight.

I fully expect BJ Penn to win this fight.

But then again, I'm still of the opinion that the Penn/GSP fight should have been a draw at worst, given that the first round should have been scored 10-8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you pick Penn to win because you think he is an all-around better fighter or because you think he has the specific skill set to negate Hughes? I have a tought time calling this a win for Penn, although I dont think he is a huge dog at all.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
and for the record: I grabbed as much Hughes as I could when it opened at -105 and again around -135 when they raised the limits.

I will be leveraging all of that to have a risk free shot on Penn, as I think the line is already off and expect it to climb further to the neighborhood of +250 Penn prefight.

I fully expect BJ Penn to win this fight.

But then again, I'm still of the opinion that the Penn/GSP fight should have been a draw at worst, given that the first round should have been scored 10-8.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm stunned at all the people basically saying Penn has no chance. Are these just a bunch of guys that's only experience watching MMA is the last few UFCs, and the TUF series?

Everything points to the fact that not only does Penn have more than enough talent and skills to beat Hughes, but, HE'S DONE IT BEFORE. The guy has beaten the best fighters all over the world.

They seem to think that because he gassed against GSP and lost the controversial decision, that he's not a viable threat to Hughes, and that is simply outrageous.

The guy is a stud...every bit of what Hughes is. And this theory that the strength, and athleticism is going to overwhelm Penn...must come from a place of ignorance.

Penn may very well be one of the best jui-jitsu guys in the world. He's a tremendous athlete as well (often gets overlooked, and not evident in the GSP fight). He's got very strong standup skills, and is very strong at wrestling as well.

Those that think they saw the best Penn in the GSP fight are delusional, and in for a rude awakening.

Can Penn win this? ABSOLUTELY...
Will Penn win this? I'd say it's unlikely...
Will the odds dictate betting on him? ABSOLUTELY...

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
Free,

I tend to agree with the analysis you quoted. I think Hughes is the favorite, but Penn is not as big of a dog as some have suggested in here. The only real vulnerability that Hughes has shown in his matches are to submissions and as was pointed out, Penn is a very good jiujitsu practicioner. Id say Hughes is more well rounded and has the edge in conditioning. Also, the revenge factor for Hughes cant be underestimated. But by no means do I personally think Penn is a huge underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Penn is significantly more well-rounded than Hughes. Hughes is simply the most dominant fighter in the world at what he does.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Penn only recently came back to the UFC, but he's fought in the interim (since the last Hughes matchup).

Penn has the EXACT skills needed to beat Hughes (one of the few guys in the world). If you say Penn can't beat Hughes, then you are basically saying no one in the world can beat Hughes (which isn't a horrible statement, but i think it's possible).

Penn has great wrestling skills. He can fight a takedown as good as just about anyone. It takes a lot of effort to get him down.

Next, Penn is a jui-jitsu prodigy. To suggest that Hughes can hang with him in this discipline is naive. I think Hughes has VERY good submissions, but he's not as good as Penn.

Next, Penn is better of the feet. Plain and simple. I don't see how this can be argued. Hughes is competent on his feet...but he's not nearly as skilled as Penn.

And finally...Penn doesn't get finished. He's fought great fighters, and I don't ever remember seeing him get knocked out, or submitted. I saw him lose a decision to Pulver, I saw him lose a decision to Pierre...but he was never close to getting finished.

[/ QUOTE ]

Much of this analysis seems to indicate that you think that Penn should be a much smaller dog, possibly even a favorite.

I don't want this to come off as a criticism, I'm just interested in finding out if my suspicion is correct. I only know a little about UFC from becoming a recent fan.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Hughes is the favorite. And, I think Hughes wins this fight more than he loses. However...Penn is the exact right person to take his belt from him (which is logical, since it's the only guy to ever do it).

I think it's a lot of the new guys watching (the people brought in from TUF), that don't know all this history with Penn, and what a stud he actually is. This isn't just some guy that lost a decision to GSP.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
Swick vs Crow, should be a really good fight (might be the best fight of the night), If Swick opens up as an underdog I'll be all over it.

Gorgel has over a 90% chance of winning, imho, Danny is a tae-kwon-do instructor with no ground game at all. This could be the easiest fight on the card to call.

Evans will win is his normal boring fashion. I can't see Lambert avoiding the takedown all night.

I really dont think Penn can win a 5 round fight with Matt, and I dont think he will catch Matt the way he did in the first fight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't figure Swick out. Is he as good as the hype? How can that be figured out from his recent fights?

I think this will be the first test Swick has had to face, and this is an A-class fighter.

The Crow hasn't beaten a lot of the A-class fighters either however (except Tanner), but he has been in the ring against them. I think that is some serious experience advantage that can't be overlooked.

I'm having a lot of trouble picking this fight. The Tuf guys that have had success in the UFC are showing us not to doubt them, but this may end up looking like a Leben - Silva fight.

Not sure I'm going to be putting money on this one.


As far as the Gurgel - Abaddi fight. I agree. Abaddi is a joke, and it is fairly embarrassing for him to even be on the card.

As far as Penn - Hughes, I think my other posts in this thread outline what I'm thinking there.

[Performify]

I think a healthy BJ Penn is one of, if not the singular best best active fighter in MMA, pound for pound.

I also think he obviously matches up very well with Matt Hughes: Hughes only losses in his entire career are against fighters with strong jiu-jitsu, and especially so against fighters with strong jiu-jitsu who also have good striking.

I see Penn having a pretty significant advantage on the feet, and he certainly has the edge on the ground. Hughes will have the edge in takedowns and in strength.

I see this fight as either a Hughes win by decision or a Penn submission. Unless it turns out that Penn's conditioning isn't where its reported to be at and he gasses early, or someone gets hurt.

Those saying Penn gassed vs GSP are overlooking the reports that Penn was injured during the fight but didn't want to drop that as an excuse which is why you never heard it out of his mouth only some of his training partners after the fight.

I see Hughes coming out thinking he has the edge on the feet, trying to stand and strike. And quickly realizing he's getting the worst of it on the feet. Very similar to the Gracie fight - Hughes came out looking to strike on the feet and realized Gracie's long limbs allowed him to get the better of it with leg kicks on the feet, so he quickly changed it up and took Gracie down. Penn's striking is far superior to Hughes that we've seen, and Hughes will get picked apart on the feet. So Hughes is forced to take Penn down, in which case he tries to put Penn against the fence and drop hammerfists and elbows. Standard gameplan. Except Penn is by far the most dangerous fighter from his back in the UFC, with the possible exception of Dean Lister. Hughes knows this, and isn't going to open up like crazy and expose himself. So its going to be a highly technical war on the ground, i think. And probably several restarts along the way.

So either Penn can pull out a submission along the way, or Hughes wins the decision due to the scoring of multiple takedowns along the way. Or there's always a possibility Penn KO's him on the feet, or a slight possiblity Hughes does the same thing to Penn.