Folding TP on the turn because of the flop 3-bet?

[JussiUt]

Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero folds?

Is this a standard play or too weak tight? I just don't think CO has a hand here usually that we can beat.

CO had played only one orbit so no good reads except he doesn't play every hand. BB is 53.6/8.11/0.53

Also, should've I open raised PF? Cap the flop? Did I screw up this hand?

[Dastone]

Preflop depends on a lot of factors. I think it may be a bit too aggressive for you to raise if you are not sure about how your opponnents play since you will be oop post flop. So calling, and trying to hit a flop with this hand is not a bad idea. If I were you, I would like to get in cheap, and hopefully induce limpers behind to pad the pot on your good drawing hand.

Flop. I have no information about CO so I would give him credit for whatever he is representing. If he is known to be a bit of a tricky aggressive player then I would bet the turn out incase he was intending to check behind. If he were to raise me there I would give it up since BB is likely in there drawing and some of your out may be tainted or used up in your opponnents' hands as well.

If it's possible that you have 4+ outs on the turn, closing the action I think you might have to call, and then fold unimproved. Not sure about this though.

[YesMehFriend]

I think you have to give CO credit for what he's representing without a read. He's 3-betting the flop after two preflop-callers bet and raised the flop, he almost always has a decent hand here. The only hands he might make such a play with that you beat is something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Most of the time you're behind to JJ+ or AJ.
Therefore just calling the flop 3-bet looks fine.

For the turn: When he bets the turn again, a fd + overs becomes less likely since he was called by two players on the flop and therefore he can't really semibluff here.
With the hand range for CO mentioned above you're drawing to less than 4 outs and since BB sticks around some of your outs might be dirty (the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s).
This said 10:1 on the turn is not enough for a call imo.

[JerBear77]

*grunch*

Raise PF, I don't like a open limp here.

C/R here into two opponents is a fold in this spot on the flop

[knockonwood]

I thought raising JQs UTG was the new KTs?

[Smoke em']

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero folds?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like this fold. You're probably behind to AA-JJ or AJ.
AA-KK = 5 outs
QQ = 2 outs, but devalued for likelyhood
JJ = None, but very unlikely
AJ = 3 outs

So most of the time we're looking at 5 outs, call it 4.5 or so to be fair. Your implied odds are better, you can fold the river UI but if you improve you will very likely have the best hand and will get at least two bets in(you bet, CO calls, BB calls or you bet, CO raises, BB folds), so we can call our odds 11.75-1 when we only need 9ish-1 to call. It's iffy with our immediate odds but I think given implied odds you need to call this turn.


[ QUOTE ]
Also, should've I open raised PF? Cap the flop? Did I screw up this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't open raise this PF, but I'm not a very good player so I'd yield to others on that. You should not cap the flop since you're most likely behind and drawing. You did not screw this hand up, you made a play on the turn that I disagree with but I wasn't at the table with you and can only give you an outsider's perspective.

[CrMenace]

*grunch*

Preflop is fine- I generally limp QJs early and pop it late. Flop is also fine.

To me, an overpair is the most likely holding for villain, followed by a big flush draw and a set.

If villain has an overpair, you have 5 outs to two pair or better (plus a very slim chance at runner-runner straight). Getting 9.75:1 pot odds, a call is justified depending on how much you discount your outs.

Here's the range of villain's hands, I think:
AA (6 hands)
KK(6)
QQ(3)
JJ(1)
AJ(8)
AKd(1)
Total hands= 25

So if you hit a Q, you are good 22/25 times = 88%, so let's give Q's 2.5 outs.
If you hit a J, you are good 16/25 = 60% of the time, so let's give that 1 out.
With 0.5 outs for the long-shot straight draw, you have ~4 outs. That requires 10.5:1 which we are a bit short of, but could be justified based on implied odds. Folding is not a big mistake either, though. There is also the downside that if you are dominated you could lose a bundle if you hit your draw.

Bottom line: I probably peel one, but can't complain about the fold.

[Smoke em']

What's up with suited bad larry's posts? It seems like the newest craze.