5/10 300bb deep flop set on 3flush board @ the bike.

[Jekyll]

NT, you got me thinking, and I think the answer to how much we need to get paid off on avg when we make our hand is 1535.

Here's my logic, and please let me know if I'm still way off base. Let's say we call on the turn every time. The pot is 1865. If we miss and lose, we're out 850 (this is how many chips we've put into the hand). Just guestimating our river odds, we'll do this 3/4 hands, losing 2550 the three times we miss. So we need to profit that much the time we make it. There is 1015 in the pot we didn't put in, so we need 1535 more on the river from the other player to break even.

With 3k stack at the start there's 2150 to push with on the river. If we were to push every time, we'd need to be called about 3/4 time.

Thoughts?

[tubasteve]

This hand is more standard than some of the [censored] i read in ssnl...

OP I would probably fire less, like 1.2k or something.

[NT!]

Jekyll,

You're doing the math all wrong. When evaluating the turn call you cannot count the money you put in before. This is a separate decision point - the money already in the pot is no longer 'yours'. You are calling 500 to win 1365 on the turn. This is very basic stuff.

NT

[Jekyll]

Yeah, I see your point. Alright, got it.

Thanks for the help, NT.

[gol4pro]

Looks good all the way through.