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#21
09-18-2006, 02:55 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
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[ QUOTE ] hand 66 i think i make the call with A8, Sisnje is probably on any 2 or close to it, he pushes pretty wild if i remember correctly [/ QUOTE ] anyone else have thoughts on this hand? [/ QUOTE ] I think the A8 hand is the only truly debatable hand of the bubble. At some point Sisjne's pushing range becomes huge and A8 would be very favorable to call w/. But when does this change occur? The A8 hand was right when he started pushing huge, but up until then he hadn't been completely out of line. This situation happens alot against opponents who are familiar w/ ICM. Later in the tournament I'm sure Durron would have loved to have picked up A8 vs Sisnje. When is a good time to take the first stand? 
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#22
09-18-2006, 03:06 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] hand 66 i think i make the call with A8, Sisnje is probably on any 2 or close to it, he pushes pretty wild if i remember correctly [/ QUOTE ] anyone else have thoughts on this hand? [/ QUOTE ] I think the A8 hand is the only truly debatable hand of the bubble. At some point Sisjne's pushing range becomes huge and A8 would be very favorable to call w/. But when does this change occur? The A8 hand was right when he started pushing huge, but up until then he hadn't been completely out of line. This situation happens alot against opponents who are familiar w/ ICM. Later in the tournament I'm sure Durron would have loved to have picked up A8 vs Sisnje. When is a good time to take the first stand? [/ QUOTE ] Nice comments zjd. This is what I was thinking before I read your comments. I think the only way youre going to know if this would be a good call at this stage of the game is if you have played vs this opponent previously and know when he is opening his range up.
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#23
09-18-2006, 03:53 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
hand 55: why? you do have the big stack... but the next two people to act have two big blinds. this means they are getting huge odds from the pot. the guy who calls you has to call 840 to win 2405. if you are pushing any two then he should be calling you with 60%!!!
my brain hurts when i think about someone being offered this calling edge when they are down to 2 big blinds.
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#26
09-18-2006, 04:14 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
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my brain hurts when i think about someone being offered this calling edge when they are down to 2 big blinds. [/ QUOTE ] Lets say I know that confeitor has KQ and he will call if I shove. I am risking 1010 to win 1835, and have a huge stack with a shortstack on the bubbel (obviously a very profitable situation). This is 1.81:1 odds, or I need to be > 35.5% to win the pot for it to be +EV. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2083387 pokenum -h kh qc - 6h 4c Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qc Kh 1096907 64.06 602629 35.19 12768 0.75 0.644 4c 6h 602629 35.19 1096907 64.06 12768 0.75 0.356 In other words, even if I know he has two big cards, will always call, and the suits match exactly it's still a +EV shove. The BB is basically always folding and the SB is folding too much, I am positive.
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#27
09-18-2006, 04:16 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
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hand 66 i think i make the call with A8, Sisnje is probably on any 2 or close to it, he pushes pretty wild if i remember correctly [/ QUOTE ] Even if you put Sisnje on a range that makes calling that particular hand -$EV, it's still going to be way less -$EV than getting your blinds stolen the next five orbits. A penny saved is a penny earned.
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#28
09-18-2006, 04:19 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] hand 66 i think i make the call with A8, Sisnje is probably on any 2 or close to it, he pushes pretty wild if i remember correctly [/ QUOTE ] Even if you put Sisnje on a range that makes calling that particular hand -$EV, it's still going to be way less -$EV than getting your blinds stolen the next five orbits. A penny saved is a penny earned. [/ QUOTE ] How can you possibly know what is going to happen the next five orbits? If you know the remaining players very well and know they will try to pwn you later if you dont pwn them now, I can see that. What if you dont know what cards you will get or what if you dont know they all will turn into pushbots right after this hand.
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#29
09-18-2006, 04:22 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
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How can you possibly know what is going to happen the next five orbits? If you know the remaining players very well and know they will try to pwn you later if you dont pwn them now, I can see that. What if you dont know what cards you will get or what if you dont know they all will turn into pushbots right after this hand. [/ QUOTE ] Literally I started checking sharkscope on Sisnje immediately after the A8 hand and immediately regretted folding Little did I know that the 4th guy also knew what he was doing on bubble time [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]... and that confeitor only seemed willing to spite call me and no one else.
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#30
09-18-2006, 04:58 PM
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Re: ($60 turbo) Now I know what rape feels like (pxf video)
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[ QUOTE ] I think calling is correct since Sisnje will play correctly here and hence push a wide enough range. [/ QUOTE ] How do you guys deal with this?? When your opp is aware of ICM, pushes a wide range or the other way around, knows your pushing a wide range? Thanks, Steve [/ QUOTE ] I don't think I understand your question. My point was that villian is a good player and as such will do the "correct" thing. The correct action for him in this scenario is to push liberally. He could choose unstead to not push liberally but in the long run that would be bad for him and I am sure he knows this (he is a good player).
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